Maharashtra | Who will gain from Jarange's move to back out from electoral arena?

While both the rival alliances – Mahayuti and MVA – pulled out all stops to ensure that the rebel candidates withdraw from the poll fray as the deadline comes to an end on Monday (November 4), this was one “withdrawal” that took them all by surprise.

In a volte-face, Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil announced that he will not back any candidate or party in the upcoming Assembly elections on November 20. Moreover, he also asked the Maratha community not to vote solely with an aim to defeat nominees who oppose quota.

The 42-year-old activist, who hogged the limelight during his hunger strike demanding reservation benefits for Marathas, had earlier said he would support candidates challenging MLAs of the BJP-led Mahayuti in Marathwada region which accounts for 46 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly. This region includes Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, Beed, Hingoli, Jalna, Latur, Nanded, Osmanabad and Parbhani districts.

Boost for Mahayuti?

Not surprisingly, the BJP was quick to hail Jarange’s move, dubbing it as sensible, appropriate and “healthy” for the activist’s Maratha quota stir.

Also read: Maharashtra polls | Jarange to field candidates in Maratha-dominant constituencies

For Mahayuti, this is being seen by many as a big boost as the Maratha community comprises as much as 32% of Maharashtra’s population, and was seen as backing the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) over the quota issue.

Maratha votes were widely seen as a key factor behind the Mahayuti’s poor show in Maharashtra in the general election earlier this year. They managed to secure only 17 out of 38 Lok Sabha seats in the state, while the MVA put up an impressive show bagging 30 constituencies.

Jarange’s announcement came as a huge respite for the BJP too as the Maratha quota activist had often targeted Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. “The chief minister (Eknath Shinde) had promised to provide us the reservation. We pinned hopes on him. But Fadnavis did not let that happen. He made the game plan. He told the Centre how the party will benefit through the OBCs by denying reservation to the Marathas,” the activist had alleged.

Fadnavis, who also holds the home portfolio, had been on the back foot on this issue for more than 15 months now with many even within the Mahayuti blaming him and a lathicharge on an agitation led by Jarange-Patil in particular for the turn of events. In a government led by Eknath Shinde (who is himself a Maratha) and including another Maratha leader, Ajit Pawar, as Deputy CM, Fadnavis started out with a disadvantage on the issue. However, now his consistent defence that it was a government led by him that first extended reservation to the Maratha community, though it was struck down by courts, may find takers during the campaign.

MVA relieved

Jarange’s move to back out seems to augur well for the MVA, as there were apprehensions that if the quota activist fielded his own candidates or backed Independents, it would lead to a division of anti-BJP votes.

Also read: Fadnavis a 'Maratha hater', govt operates as per his wishes: Jarange

The MVA secured lead in 32 of the 46 Assembly seats in Marathwada during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, cashing in on the Maratha anger over the non-fulfillment of the demand for reservation. It was to some extent seen as an impact of Jarange’s corner meetings in constituencies, appealing voters to defeat the ruling alliance candidates. The Opposition parties are now hoping that the trend will be repeated in the Assembly elections too.

However, it won’t be easy this time, as several Maratha activists filed nominations across the state following Jarange’s announcement to contest polls. Though he has now appealed for withdrawals, it remains to be seen as to how many of them will comply. There is every possibility that even if a few remain in the contest and secure a small portion of Maratha votes, it could alter the dynamics in closely contested seats.

The somersault

The Maratha quota activist’s U-turn came merely hours after announcing plans to contest 10 to 15 Assembly seats. He had announced, “We will back candidates and wherever we do not back candidates, we will defeat those who oppose Maratha reservation.”

Addressing a press conference in Antarwali Sarati, Jarange on Monday acknowledged that elections could not be fought on the basis of a single caste. He attributed his withdrawal from the electoral arena to lack of support from smaller allies representing Dalits and Muslims.

“We held meetings until 3 in the morning and waited for the lists from our allies, but there was no response. We then had a meeting and unanimously decided not to field candidates. It is not a U-turn, but you can say it is part of our strategy,” Jarange contended.

Also read: Maratha quota issue unresolved due to pressure from Fadnavis, Bhujbal: Jarange

The activist left the voting decision to the community's discretion. “Let the community decide whom to elect and whom to teach a lesson by defeating. It could be called the Lok Sabha pattern, but we have no option. We have no trust in either side, and it is better for the community to act in their own interest,” he said.

Jarange had on Sunday night discussed prospects in 25 constituencies and finalised 14, including Partur, Kaij, Phulambri, Pathri, Hingoli, Hadgaon, Daund, Parvati, Pathardi, and Kopargaon. The decision could have affected both Mahayuti and MVA candidates in various constituencies.

A prominent leader of the Maratha Kranti Morcha, who played a key role in the quota agitation, said they had got a sense over the past few days that Jarange-Patil might do a U-turn. “Politics is a different ball game, which Jarange-Patil should understand,” the leader told The Indian Express, adding that he did not want to be identified for fear of a “backlash”.