Maharashtra | Will MVA get its seat-sharing math right ahead of Assembly elections?

Having sealed the seat-sharing deal for 125 out of 288 seats for the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly polls, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is now struggling to evolve a consensus on the remaining 163 seats with all the allies bargaining hard to get the maximum share of seats.

The MVA alliance comprises Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) and the Congress. As per the formula under discussion, Congress will contest around 108-115 seats, NCP (SP) will fight on 90-95 and Sena (UBT) will contest on 85-90 seats. The alliance partners are now all set to hold another round of talks to iron out the differences over the seat-sharing arrangement from September 18 to 20.

Mulling two options

According to media reports, the MVA is now deliberating over two formulae for the seat-sharing arrangement. As per the first formula, 154 Assembly seats won by three parties — undivided Shiv Sena, undivided NCP and Congress — will be contested by Sena (UBT), NCP (SP) and Congress.

In 2019, united Sena won 56, united NCP won 54 and Congress 44. This formula can cover more than half of the Assembly segments and the division of the remaining 134 seats can be held following discussions. Of these remaining 134, the BJP had bagged 105 seats where the Congress and the united NCP were at number two.

As per the second formula, all three parties will fight Assembly seats in which they led during the recently held Lok Sabha election. However, the seats where ruling alliance was in lead would be open for discussion and will be distributed among the three parties.

In this scenario, the Congress and the NCP (SP) will have upper hand in the negotiations as these two MVA allies performed better than the Shiv Sena (UBT) in the Lok Sabha polls. The MVA delivered an impressive performance in the general elections, winning 30 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra.

Vying for more seats

Sources in Congress said the party has sought more than 110 seats on the basis of its Lok Sabha poll performance. The Congress emerged victorious on 13 out of 17 seats it contested in the state. The Sharad Pawar-led NCP’s strike rate was 80 per cent, as it won eight Lok Sabha seats out of the 10 seats it contested. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena won nine seats against the 21 it contested.

The NCP (SP) is also asking for the seats in same proportion in the Assembly elections. “In the Lok Sabha polls, the NCP (SP) compromised and agreed to fight lower number of seats than the Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT), but it is not ready to settle for any less in Assembly elections,” the party leaders were quoted as saying in media.

Though there are reports that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is keen on contesting more than 100 seats, the Congress is unlikely to yield to the request. The Congress leadership feels that the party has a better chance in the state, except the coastal part and Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). Thackeray-led Sena will contest majority of seats in this part.

High stakes in Mumbai

Meanwhile, the alliance partners are also at loggerheads over 36 Assembly seats in Mumbai, a stronghold of the Shiv Sena (UBT). Both the Congress and the Uddhav-led Sena (UBT) are keen on contesting more seats in Mumbai.

In the last meeting, the Shiv Sena (UBT) had put forth a demand for 18-20 out of 36 seats in Mumbai. They are particularly focused on the seats they won and those where multiple candidates were interested. The Congress asked for 14-16 seats, while Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction sought five to seven seats.

There is a possibility that the seats where a party has had long-standing MLAs will remain with that party. In places where MLAs have left the party, the seats are expected to go to the party with the strongest presence, according to sources.

Eyeing same seats

As per reports, all the three parties have staked their claim over Versova and Andheri East, while both the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress have evinced interest in fielding candidates from Byculla, Colaba, Dharavi, Sion Koliwada, Wadala, Vandre East and Chandivali constituencies.

Interestingly, none of the three MVA partners are keen on contesting from the five constituencies which are currently represented by the BJP – Malabar Hill, Vile Parle, Charkop, Borivali and Mulund.

Notably, the undivided Shiv Sena had 14 seats in Mumbai in the 2019 Assembly polls, while Shiv Sena (UBT) won three Lok Sabha seats in Mumbai. The party believes that they are in the strongest position among all three MVA allies and therefore it has sought 20 seats, including the ones having a sizable Muslim population.

The NCP (SP) has sought seven seats, including Anushakti Nagar, Kurla, Ghatkopar East, Versova, Andheri West and Dahisar. It will be difficult for the other two allies to turn down the Sharad Pawar faction’s claim as barring Anushakti Nagar, none of the other seats are held by the Shiv Sena (UBT) or the Congress.

Apart from a clamour for seats among the three main parties, MVA will also have to concede some seats to smaller partners like the Samajwadi Party, which could complicate seat-sharing talks further.