Maharashtra, Jharkhand brace for high-stakes elections: It's a neck and neck contest in both states
In Maharashtra, MVA holds a slight edge due to lingering public dissatisfaction with BJP's governance, yet it will be a tight race; in Jharkhand, JMM faces a reinvigorated BJP
As campaigning for the assembly elections in Maharashtra and for the second phase in Jharkhand draw to a close, political dynamics in both states remain intensely competitive.
With polling just a few days away, voters and political analysts are watching the election trends closely to see which alliances will prevail amid a cacophony of promises, strategies, and controversies.
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Maharashtra: A tight race with familiar challenges
In the case of Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar faction), faces off against the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. Veteran journalist Vivek Deshpande suggests the contest is neck and neck, with the MVA holding a slight edge due to lingering public dissatisfaction with the incumbent party BJP's governance.
Deshpande discussed how Maharashtra’s socio-political fabric, shaped by the legacies of Shivaji, Ambedkar, and progressive thought leaders, has historically resisted divisive agendas. The BJP's attempt to foreground a Hindu-Muslim narrative, bolstered by the Sakal Hindu Samaj campaign, has seen limited traction. However, freebies such as financial aid to women may blunt some voter dissatisfaction, but challenges like price rises and farmers' woes persist as pressing concerns.
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath have campaigned vigorously, yet the Opposition lacks a cohesive counter-narrative to BJP’s strategies. If predictions hold, the MVA can secure around 115 seats, although the BJP’s strong booth management and central influence can still sway results in their favour.
Jharkhand: Fragmentation and identity politics take centrestage
Meanwhile, Jharkhand’s political landscape remains volatile, with the Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) facing a reinvigorated BJP. Journalist Manoj Prasad points out that identity politics and tribal affiliations dominate the narrative, overshadowing critical developmental issues.
The BJP has gained momentum by aligning with smaller regional parties and exploiting divisions within the JMM and tribal electorate. The split in tribal votes, particularly among the Santal and Kolhan communities, is likely to benefit the BJP. Historical data reveals that tribal votes have been a decisive factor, with even minor shifts in allegiance significantly altering outcomes.
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Despite the BJP's robust campaign, Hemant Soren has managed to keep the JMM-Congress alliance afloat, though the Congress remains weak at the grassroots level. Prasad predicts the BJP might emerge as the single largest party, leveraging its central power to form the government in a potentially fragmented assembly.
Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav during a public meeting for the State Assembly elections, in Deoghar district, Monday, November 18, 2024. Photo: PTI
Broader implications and lingering questions
Both states reflect a troubling trend of sidelining substantive issues like poverty, unemployment, and farmer distress in favour of identity politics and emotional rhetoric. In Jharkhand, despite its mineral wealth, the state continues to lag on development indicators such as urban poverty and per capita income. Similarly, Maharashtra’s economic challenges, including the agrarian crisis, remain unresolved.
As voters head to the polls, the stakes are high. Will Maharashtra’s electorate reward MVA’s persistence, or will BJP’s strategic advantages turn the tide? In Jharkhand, can the Soren government withstand BJP’s concerted push? The results on November 23 will shape not just politics of these two states but also set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
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