Maharashtra’s battle of supremacy | Sena vs Sena contest on 47 seats, NCP Pa'war' on 38

Even as the ruling Mahayuti alliance led by the BJP and the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) led by the Congress are aiming for power in Maharashtra, a battle of supremacy is brewing between the two Shiv Sena factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde, as also the two NCP factions led by Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar.

It is a litmus test for these four top leaders of Maharashtra as these are the first Assembly elections in the state after the two regional forces split up in the recent years. Both the parties have witnessed the rival factions locking horns and taking their fight to claim the original party before the Election Commission of India.

The poll panel ruled in the favour of Ajit Pawar with 40 of the NCP’s 52 legislators backing him. Similarly, the Election Commission recognised the Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction as the original party founded by Balasaheb Thackeray and allotted it the party’s bow and arrow symbol.

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Sena vs Sena in coastal belt

Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena are in direct contest on 47 seats of Thane-Konkan (39 seats) and Mumbai region (36 seats), which together account for 75 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly.

The coastal belt, spread over the districts of Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan, Palghar, Raigad and Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, was considered as a bastion of the undivided Shiv Sena. Even after the rebellion of senior leaders like Narayan Rane, the party remained a dominant force in the region. However, the scenario is no more the same after Eknath Shinde’s rebellion as his Sena faction fared well in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, winning 7 seats, including Thane, Kalyan and Mumbai North West, as compared to Uddhav faction’s 9 constituencies.

A closer look at the Lok Sabha poll results reveals that the Sena (UBT) may have ceded significant political space to the Shinde Sena. In terms of Assembly segment, the ruling Mahayuti secured a lead in 48 Assembly seats while MVA led in 27 Assembly constituencies out of the 75 seats in the coastal belt.

These elections are virtually an existential battle for the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena, as several stalwart leaders, including two out of four former MPs and over 20 out of the 29 sitting MLAs from Konkan, switched to Shinde-led Sena, leaving a vacuum in the party’s leadership.

In the 2019 Assembly polls, the undivided Sena had won 29 seats and its then ally BJP won 27 seats, taking the total to 56. The BJP-Sena alliance had then kept the Congress and NCP below the 15-seat mark and proved its dominance over the region.

Key battles to watch out for

Among the hot seats in the region is the Worli constituency where Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aaditya Thackeray is pitted against former Union minister Milind Deora from the rival Sena faction. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde is contesting against Kedar Dighe, nephew of his mentor and late Shiv Sena leader Anand Dighe, at Kopri Pachpakhadi constituency in Thane.

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However, all eyes will be on Mahim Assembly constituency, which is set for a triangular fight between three Senas, including the Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). Mahim holds great significance as the undivided Shiv Sena was born in the constituency in 1966 with a rally at the landmark Shivaji Park. The constituency also houses the undivided Shiv Sena’s headquarters, which is now that of the Sena (UBT).

While Shinde Sena has fielded its sitting MLA Sada Sarvankar from the seat, the Sena (UBT) has fielded Mahesh Sawant. Raj Thackeray has fielded his son Amit from the high-profile seat and he even managed to get the BJP support for him initially, though the saffron party later backed out due to pressure from the Shinde Sena to support Sarvankar.

NCP vs NCP in sugar bowl

Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) is pitted against Ajit Pawar-led NCP on 38 seats in Maharashtra, of which 20 are in the sugar belt of Western Maharashtra where the Pawars hold considerable clout.

In the battle between the two factions, the first round went to the NCP (SP) as it won 8 out of the 10 seats it contested in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, while the Ajit Pawar faction could win only one out of the four it contested, which included two against the NCP (SP).

The NCP led by Ajit Pawar is contesting a total of 60 seats, including friendly fights in eight seats, as per the seat sharing arrangement in Mahayuti. The NCP (SP) is contesting 86 seats, including one friendly fight, as per the seat sharing pact among MVA partners.

Political analysts feel that Sharad Pawar has an edge over his nephew this time too, as he has influence across the state, which is not the case with Ajit Pawar who has limited pockets of influence. Moreover, there is a sympathy factor working to his advantage after Ajit walked out of the party and joined hands with the BJP to be a part of the Mahayuti regime.

In this scenario, it won’t be surprising if the NCP (SP) winners tally is more than that of the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, as the Sharad Pawar faction is already contesting almost 30 seats more than that being fought by the Ajit Pawar group. At present, 40 NCP legislators are backing Ajit Pawar while the remaining 12 are with the veteran leader.

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All eyes on Baramati, Nashik

Baramati, the family bastion of the Pawars, is again witnessing a Pawar vs Pawar showdown with Ajit Pawar taking on his nephew Yugendra Pawar. Ajit has held the Baramati seat since 1991, which makes it a prestige battle for him.

Three of the NCP versus NCP battles are taking place in Nashik district. Cabinet minister and OBC leader Chhagan Bhujbal is up against Maratha leader Manikrao Shinde of the NCP (SP) in Yeola constituency. The ongoing Maratha-OBC polarisation due to reservation-related issues makes this electoral contest crucial.

The Ajit Pawar-led NCP has also tried to make it tough for some of the key NCP (SP) leaders. It has put formidable challenge against state NCP (SP) chief Jayant Patil in Islampur, Rohit RR Patil in Tasgaon, Rani Lanke in Parner, sitting legislators Ashok Pawar in Shirur, Deepak Chavan in Phaltan, Rajendra Shingane in Sindkhed Raja and Jitendra Awhad in Mumbra-Kalwa.