Exit poll analysis: Maharashtra, Jharkhand await results amid uncertainty

As the final votes have been cast in the Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections, exit poll predictions have dominated discussions across political and media circles.\

While exit polls attempt to provide a glimpse into potential outcomes, opinions remain divided over their credibility and accuracy.

A close contest in Maharashtra

Exit polls for Maharashtra, which boasts 288 Assembly seats with a majority mark of 145, suggest a tight race between the Mahayuti (BJP-led alliance) and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising the Congress, NCP, and Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena faction.

Watch | Maharashtra & Jharkhand polls: 'BJP has edge in both states'

Exit poll predictions

People’s Pulse: MVA (85-112), Mahayuti (175-195)

Chanakya: MVA (130-138), Mahayuti (152-160)

Republic P-Mark: MVA (110-130), Mahayuti (137-157)

Poll of polls: MVA (130), Mahayuti (144), Others (4)

Also read: EC laments 'dismal record' of urban voters in Mumbai, Pune, Thane

While the Mahayuti appears to have an edge, analysts warn against taking these numbers at face value.

Senior journalist Girish Joshi remarked, "Exit polls often have a margin of error and do not always capture on-ground dynamics such as last-minute voter shifts." He highlighted the complexity of Maharashtra's regional politics, which features distinct issues across its diverse regions.

Key issues in Maharashtra

Agrarian distress and unemployment have remained central to voters’ concerns.

Also read: Jharkhand voters unfazed by boycott calls in Maoist-affected areas: EC

BJP’s campaign focused on development and Hindutva narratives, while the MVA emphasised governance, farmers' issues, and regional pride.

The role of rebels and independents, particularly those from the BJP and NCP, could play a crucial role in shaping the final outcome.

Analyst Siddharth Sharma speculated that the BJP could emerge as the single-largest party but may fall short of a clear majority. "MVA’s combined strength, particularly from Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, could pose a challenge to the BJP's bid to form the government," he said.

BJP faces a tough battle in Jharkhand

Jharkhand’s 81 Assembly constituencies have witnessed fierce contests, with the BJP and its allies facing off against the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance. Exit polls predict a fragmented mandate, with no clear winner emerging.

Exit poll predictions

People’s Pulse: BJP (44-53), JMM-Congress (25-37)

Republic P-Mark: BJP (31-40), JMM-Congress (37-47)

Poll of polls: BJP (42), JMM-Congress (37)

While the BJP has mounted an aggressive campaign with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah leading the charge, the JMM, led by Chief Minister Hemant Soren, has focused on tribal identity, local issues, and dissatisfaction with the BJP's tenure at the Centre.

Key issues in Jharkhand

Tribal rights and land acquisition policies have been contentious.

The JMM has capitalised on the BJP's handling of tribal welfare schemes and its contentious push for the NRC-CAA.

Internal BJP dynamics, including the emergence of former JMM leader Champai Soren as a BJP candidate, could impact outcomes.

Manoj Prasad, editor of Jharkhand State News, noted, "The BJP’s strategy hinges on gaining tribal support, but JMM’s emphasis on local identity and autonomy could counter this." He added that a marginal shift in tribal votes could significantly alter the results.

Exit poll credibility: Divided opinions

Puneet Nicholas Yadav, senior editor at The Federal, voiced skepticism over exit polls, calling them "guesstimates" influenced by flawed methodologies. "Exit polls, whether conducted by legacy organisations or newer players, often fail to account for multi-cornered contests and regional variations," he said.

Similarly, Siddharth Sharma criticised the lack of detailed breakdowns in exit poll data, noting that compounded figures obscure constituency-specific dynamics.

What lies ahead?

Both Maharashtra and Jharkhand are poised for intriguing outcomes, with potential post-poll maneuvers and alliances shaping the final picture. Analysts agree that independents and smaller parties could play kingmakers in both states.

As voters and parties await the official results on Saturday, November 23, the picture remains fluid, underscoring the unpredictable nature of Indian elections.

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