Despondency grips Opposition camp as a resurgent BJP under Yogi wins UP bypolls

The by-elections in Uttar Pradesh this time were no routine affair. They had acquired out-of-the-ordinary political significance even much before the bypoll process was set in motion.

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath had very high personal stakes in these bypolls. Even his future political fortunes depended on the outcome in view of his troubled equations with the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo at the Centre. He was aware that he could not count on the backing from RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat for long.

The BJP as a party, including the national leadership, wanted to avenge the reverses they suffered in the Lok Sabha polls and were desperate to show that those defeats were aberrations.

Also read: UP bypolls: Yogi Adityanath wins ‘battle of popularity’ against Akhilesh

BJP bounces back

It was also a major test for Akhilesh Yadav to prove whether he would continue his winning streak and political recovery witnessed in 2022 Assembly polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

It was also perceived as a test for the fading BSP to show that it was still relevant.

Of the nine seats that went in for bypolls, the BJP and its ally RLD won seven and Samajwadi Party (SP) won two.

The votes polled by major parties in the bypoll constituencies are given below.

The winning margins of the BJP have increased this time compared to the performance in these Assembly segments in the Lok Sabha polls. While the SP had won four of these nine seats in the 2022 Assembly polls, they managed to retain only two now.

And no political process in UP can unfold without being accompanied by its concomitant communal designs or polarisation. On polling day, Akhilesh complained to the Election Commission (EC) that even at quite a distance from the polling booth, UP police personnel were asking the voters to show their voter ID cards and Aadhaar cards with the ulterior motive of identifying and deterring Muslim voters.

Some Samajwadi Party (SP) leaders had written to the EC that Muslim women were being asked by policemen to lift their veils and show their face in the name of checking for impersonation. The Yogi government denied this, and the BJP attacked the SP accusing it of raising the bogey of minority-ism.

Administrative obstructionism

But it didn’t turn out to be a false accusation by the SP. Upon getting the feedback from the neutral poll observers, the EC took action against three policemen.

Veteran Leftist Awadesh Kumar Singh told The Federal that there was widespread intimidation of Opposition leaders and even candidates. He cited the case of an audio clip going viral in which a BJP leader and former party spokesperson, Dheeraj Chadda, who was also a kar sevak, can purportedly be heard threatening Naseem Solanki, SP candidate from Sisamau. In it he purportedly says, “I will get my mandir (temple) washed with Gangajal...you have defiled it by doing puja there.” A heated argument ensues and then he hangs up. Chadda allegedly even threatened to file 200 cases against her.

Worse, the Yogi government had mobilised the entire administrative machinery to play an obstructive role. In Kundarki (Moradabad district) and Katehari (Ambedkarnagar district), Muslim voters were physically prevented from voting. Seasoned journalist Manoj Singh, who covered the Kundarki elections, told The Federal that Muslim voters were prevented from voting in around 250 booths citing flimsy excuses such as they were showing only photocopies of their Aadhaar cards and not the originals. This despite the EC declaring that voter ID cards or Aadhaar cards were not mandatory as ID proof, and any of the 11 documents, including driving license, bank passbook, or ration card, would suffice.

Also read: SP a production house of rioters, criminals, Akhilesh is CEO: Yogi Adityanath

A video clip of a police official brandishing his revolver at a group of Muslim women voters went viral on the web and TV channels, points out Manoj Singh. Some other clips of obstructed SP poll workers clashing with the police and SP booth agents being forcibly evicted from the polling booths also appeared in some local Hindi channels. The jingle lampooning the Yogi administration saying "EVM ka jeet, yah DM ka jeet!" (EVMs’ victory or DM’s win!) was making rounds among Opposition workers.

SP fails to pick ‘right’ candidates

Dharmraj Patel, an ex-MLA of SP from Phulpur, told The Federal that SP lost Phulpur due to the wrong choice of candidate. “The sitting BJP MLA Praveen Kumar Patel was only giving false assurances and not doing anything for the people of Phulpur and became highly discredited. So the BJP changed the candidate and fielded Deepak Patel. But instead of fielding a Patel candidate in this constituency dominated by Patels, Akhilesh fielded a Muslim candidate. So the Patels voted for Deepak Patel of the BJP.

Salim, a noted Left leader from Mirzapur, blamed Akhilesh for the wrong choice of candidates as well. In Katehari, Shobhawati Verma, an elderly woman with no political backdrop, was given the ticket just because she happens to be the wife of Kurmi strongman Lalji Verma and people were wondering what this old woman would do in the Assembly.

Salim also attributed the BJP’s bypoll victory to its moves such as preventing Muslim voters from casting votes and other forms of rigging. But the winning margin of the BJP is far bigger than the share of Muslim voters in Ghaziabad and Kundarki. When asked about this, Salim admitted that the BJP’s social base remained intact, while that of the SP showed signs of disintegration.

Salim said, “In the Lok Sabha polls, non-Yadav OBCs, such as the Patels in Phulpur, voted for SP. But this time, in the Assembly bypolls, there were reports of Patels and Mauryas going back to the BJP in Phulpur, Khair and even in Kundarki.

“Worse still, in Majhawan and some other constituencies, a section of Dalits voted for the SP but they did not vote for SP candidates this time. Even Akhilesh did not undertake any of his characteristic social engineering moves like meeting local Dalit leaders this time,” he added.

Also read: Uttar Pradesh: Ayodhya at epicentre of Yogi’s by-poll battle

BJP’s inherent strength intact

Another journalist pointed out that there were some positive factors favouring Yogi. “Yogi visited each bypoll constituency two or three times but Akhilesh did not take the trouble of visiting any of these constituencies even twice. Keeping the by-election in mind, Yogi ensured 24-hour power supply. The massive urban renovation work for Kumbh Mela being undertaken in Prayagraj also had its impact in the adjoining Phulpur. Yogi continued to keep a tight leash on the mafia and rowdy elements and the residential communities and shopkeepers are feeling secure.”

“There were no major atrocities on Dalits or even against Muslims. The level of corruption has come down. For the first time, Yogi also started talking about bringing in new industries and creating jobs for the youth. He even held a much-publicised global investors’ meet in Greater NOIDA and managed to bring in some good investment as well,” added the journalist.

Understandably, a mood of despondency has gripped the secular camp. Subhash Kushwaha, a prominent civil society personality in Lucknow, told The Federal: “Poll pundits are coming up with several analyses about the bypolls outcome. They are pointing to the unravelling of the Muslim-Yadav alliance and weakening of the SP hold on Muslims. Some are citing lack of timely initiatives on the part of Akhilesh. All these reasons might be partially true but they are meaningless in explaining the crux of the BJP’s hegemony. BJP cannot be defeated through elections. I have lost all hopes on the current election process. BJP will win at any cost.”

“Even if the EVMs are replaced by ballot boxes, the BJP would still prevail because they would not allow Opposition voters to go anywhere near the poll booths. The EC would remain a mute puppet on the strings of the BJP. The entire system has been compromised. Free and fair elections have become a mirage. The BJP can be defeated only on the streets. We need a mass upsurge,” he added.

Erosion of SP’s famed muscle power

But the SP and Akhilesh could not unleash such an upsurge in Kundarki and other constituency where SP voters were blocked. Except for some stray protests by the blocked voters themselves, as a party the SP could not launch mass protests. There should have been a spontaneous bandh in the affected constituencies.

Also read: Why UP by-elections may decide Yogi Adityanath’s political future

Political opposition means wielding power not only through ballot boxes, they must be strong enough in street battles as well to prevent such electoral malpractices by the ruling party. When asked about this, Kushwaha admitted that the new element in the political scene of Uttar Pradesh is the erosion of the famed muscle power of the SP. They have lost the political aggression even. Kushwaha added that when newspersons asked Akhilesh recently about the latest Adani scam, he replied, “It doesn’t concern us!”

Until such a force that can assert on the barricades emerges, the BJP cannot be effectively tackled. Even while saying this, Kushwaha keeps wondering why people are voting for the BJP in Maharashtra and Haryana on such a large scale.

The ‘EVM manipulation’ theory is gaining a new lease of life among Opposition ranks. BJP’s victory still remains a puzzle for them. Taking advantage of such despondency in the Opposition camp, Yogi will straddle confidently in the run-up to the 2027 UP Assembly polls.