Why UP by-elections may decide Yogi Adityanath’s political future

Something unheard of is happening in Uttar Pradesh. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has entrusted each of the 10 Assembly constituencies facing by-polls to two or even three of his Cabinet ministers. This he did in a specially convened meeting of his Cabinet on July 17.

As Yogi was projected as the main villain of the piece responsible for BJP’s Lok Sabha poll debacle in UP, he is desperate for a good showing in these by-polls because their outcome might be crucial for his own political future as Chief Minister. So, even in the run-up to the polls, the dates for which have not yet been declared by the Election Commission (EC), Yogi is making some major decisions keeping by-polls in mind.

Halts demolition drive

The first major decision he took was to temporarily halt the demolition drive in Lucknow where 2,000 houses constructed on the encroached floodplains of Kukrail River were to be demolished as per the orders of the judiciary.

Of these, 1,800 structures were already demolished in June 2024. In the backdrop of the approaching bypolls, Yogi decided to beat a retreat, at least for a while.

No digital attendance

The second major decision by Yogi was to drop an earlier move of the government making biometric attendance system compulsory for teachers. Since 3.15 lakh serving teachers are on warpath against the move and since their “cooperation” is crucial for the BJP at the booth level in “poll management”, Yogi has taken this decision, according to a government school teacher who spoke to The Federal.

Yogi has also directed the officials to avoid power cuts in major cities.

Back to communal spin

And Yogi will not be Yogi if he does not attach a communal spin to the by-poll preparations. Under his directive, the Muzaffarnagar police have ordered that all hawkers and shopkeepers should display the owner’s name so that the Kanwar Yatris, mainly rural youth who undertake pilgrimage by foot to fetch water from Sangam in Prayagraj or other holy centres and consecrate Shivlings with it in their villages or hometowns, who numbered more than 50 lakhs last year, could buy food only from Hindu shopkeepers. It is, however, unclear whether Yogi can salvage his dipping image with these measures.

The Federal talked to some people from these 10 constituencies to find out more about constituency-level undercurrents amid such hectic poll preparations by Yogi. Here’s the summary of the feedback and constituency-wise review of poll prospects of different parties:

1. Karhal: Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav won the seat in 2022 assembly polls by a margin of 67,504 votes. This constituency is located in Mainpuri district, a part of the “Yadav belt”, which has been a pocket-borough of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s clan. It is estimated that out of the 3.7 lakh voters in the Karhal constituency, the Yadavs number 1.4 lakh. The Dalits numbering 70,000 are also inclined to vote for SP. The SP can again win this constituency hands down and Akhilesh’s nephew Tej Pratap Yadav might be fielded from here to keep the seat within the family.

2. Khair (SC): This constituency is an urban enclave in Aligarh. The Valmikis (an SC sub-caste) are a numerically dominant section in urban slums and peripheral urban areas of Aligarh. In 2022, the Valimikis abandoned Mayawati’s BSP and majority of them moved to BJP. In the Lok Sabha polls, however, the BJP candidate could win only by a slim margin of around 2,000 votes over the SP candidate though the BSP candidate polled 1.24 lakh votes. As there are chances of more Dalit votes shifting to SP, the BJP cannot take victory in this constituency for granted. It might turn out to be a tough contest.

3. Kundarki: This constituency in Moradabad district was won by Zia-ur-Rahman of SP in 2022 by a margin of 43,162 votes. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, in this assembly segment, SP’s lead increased to 57,640 votes. SC population accounts for 13.36% of the electorate while a good section of Dalit votes would also go to SP. Therefore, SP is comfortably placed to win this seat again whoever is the candidate.

4. Katehari: This constituency in Ambedkar Nagar was won by Lalji Verma of SP last time by a margin of 7,696 votes, defeating a NISHAD Party candidate. However, if the BJP fields its own candidate, it can give a tough fight to SP this time. However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, in this assembly segment, SP’s lead increased to 17,072 seats. There will be a keen contest this time as well.

5. Phulpur: This politically prestigious seat was won by Praveen Patel of the BJP in 2022 by a narrow margin of 2,732 votes. It may be recalled that SP won this seat in an earlier bypoll when BJP lost Gorakhpur seat also. However, BJP’s lead increased in this assembly segment to 29,705 votes in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, which should be a matter of concern for the SP. Dr Kamal, a local resident, says that much depends on the choice of candidate. If SP fields one Dharamraj Patel, who is a popular leader, then it can give a tough fight, he added.

6. Ghaziabad: This assembly seat, which is part of the NCR, was won by Atul Garg of the BJP in 2022 by a huge margin of 1,05,537 votes. BJP’s clean sweep of all 7 seats in the adjoining Delhi in the Lok Sabha polls is bound to have its impact. In this assembly segment, the BJP had a lead of 73,905 votes in 2024 LS polls. The party is sure to grab this seat this time too.

7. Majhawan: This constituency in Mirzapur district was won by Dr Vinod Kumar Bind of NISHAD Party in 2022 by a margin of 33,587 votes. Mohammad Salim, a popular Left leader in Mirzapur told The Federal, “Vinod Kumar Bind is a popular orthopaedic surgeon who used to extend free treatment to the poor in this area. Actually, he was working for SP which could have won this seat easily if he had been given the SP ticket. However, Akhilesh chose one of his close aides as a part of his social engineering experiment. In a huff, Bind contested from NISHAD Party which otherwise did not have a base here and won. This time the outcome depends on the choice of candidate.”

8. Meerapur: This constituency in Muzaffarnagar was won by an RLD candidate contesting in alliance with SP in 2022. This time RLD has a tie-up with the BJP and hence it may not get Muslim votes, which are in sizable number here. A panchayat of Kshatriya Mahasabha was held in Hussainpur village of this Thakur dominated area to discuss the assembly poll strategy. It was attended by hundreds of prominent Thakurs of the region, including Thakur Satpal Singh, an influential leader, and the mood was against the BJP which faced Jat alienation here in the Lok Sabha polls too. If Akhilesh succeeds in bringing about a Yadav-Muslim-Jat-Rajput social convergence around a Rajput candidate, SP has better chances of winning this seat.

9. Milkipur: This constituency in Ayodhya was won by Awadesh Prasad, a prominent Dalit leader from the Pasi community, of SP in 2022. He emerged victorious from Faizabad Lok Sabha seat, under which the temple town of Ayodhya falls, in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. His son Ajit Prasad might be fielded by SP this time. Prof Anil Prasad from Faizabad told The Federal, “A political greenhorn, Ajit Prasad is not as popular as his father, an 8-time veteran MLA, and might lose this time as Yogi and BJP would go all-out to snatch this seat, which is prestigious in terms of Hindutva agenda.”

10. Sishamau: This constituency in Kanpur district was won by Haji Irfan Solanki of SP by a margin of 12,266 votes in 2022. He had to vacate this seat after getting convicted in a case. Usha, a Left leader from Kanpur, said it was a “fabricated case with stringent punishment” similar to the case against Azam Khan, where minority leaders were targeted. “There is sympathy for him. This seat has been with the Solanki family for the last 30 years and if someone from the family contests again on SP ticket the party has fair chance of winning this seat again,” she added.

Drawing the overall balance-sheet, BJP’s victory might be limited to 2 or 3 seats only out of these 10. Such a result is bound to further bring down the political stock of Yogi and intensify the infighting in UP BJP. Fateful by-polls, indeed!