BJP vs Congress, OBC vs Jat: Will Haryana voter opt for governance instead?

With a month left for Assembly elections, the mood of Haryana’s two-crore-plus electorate cannot be accurately gauged, but one thing is for sure — it is a straight contest between the ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress.

“To form a government, 46 is the magic number in the 90-member Haryana Assembly. The public sentiment in Haryana is currently against the BJP and the Congress is blindly harping on this factor," veteran political analyst Harish Gaur told The Federal.

"However, the Congress is mistaken because people still like Narendra Modi and that is a big advantage for the BJP. It is a tough fight,” he added. The actual assessment, though, can only be made once the candidates are announced, he said.

Public perception

The public perception currently floating in Haryana appears to be that the BJP will be reduced to around 25 seats and the Congress will gain a thumping majority and form a government on its own.

This is based on the fact that the past 10 years have seen price rises and corruption, and that the BJP may have failed to meet the expectations of the people.

“Despite being in power for a decade, the BJP's hopes are largely based on divisive politics, particularly using caste and religious differences to split voters along lines such as Jat vs non-Jat and Hindu vs Muslim," political analyst Laxmi Kant Saini told The Federal.

"It's a fact that the voters are frustrated with rising prices, unemployment, and poor administration, and eagerly looking for a change,” he said, adding that the Assembly polls will, however, be a crucial test for the Congress, too.

Challenges for Congress, too

“The Congress too faces some significant challenges, including internal feud and a history of making critical mistakes by selecting wrong candidates and rejecting the right ones, as was evident in the 2019 election," said Saini.

"For the Congress, it is crucial to avoid falling into the BJP's trap of divisive politics and instead focus on development, job creation, and reclaiming the state’s top position that was lost over the past decade due to ineffective governance," he added.

Pleading anonymity, a senior BJP worker, hopeful of a ticket from south Haryana, said the party leadership in the state is weak. That's the reason the high command changed the state leadership just six months before the election and elevated an OBC leader (Nayab Singh Saini) to alter the public perception, the worker added.

BJP claims to be confident

The BJP’s Haryana media in-charge Arvind Saini said anti-incumbency is “a media propaganda manufactured by the Congress”.

“The BJP has emerged as the choice of the common citizen of Haryana. We are in a strong position as per all our internal surveys. The party is winning the 2024 Assembly election with 50-plus seats, and it will form a government on its own,” said Arvind Saini.

“We do not promote family politics. Internal feuds among the top Congress leaders is an open secret. Bhupinder Singh Hooda wants to promote his son. The BJP, on the other hand, believes in elevating leaders who have risen through the ranks," he added.

"Both Manohar Lal Khattar and Nayab Singh Saini are the examples. Haryana is not what it was 50-60 years ago. We have taken Haryana’s development to the next level and people will vote for continuity this time.”

Jats vs non-Jats

If political experts are to be believed, the Assembly election represents a war of political significance between the Jats and the non-Jats, in which the electorate will undergo a test to vote for good governance.

Pawan Bansal, an author of books on politics, culture and governance of Haryana, said: “The Jat community and the BJP are two opposite poles and they are making attempts to neutralise each other’s influence. The BJP is practising non-Jat politics, replicating the era of Bhajan Lal. But public sentiment is against the BJP this time for non-performance.”

The Jat community makes up for around 27 per cent of Haryana's population, while the non-Jat OBC category stands close to 32 per cent.

An influential Jat leader of Haryana, wishing for anonymity, said the Jats have produced political stalwarts – Bansi Lal, Devi Lal, OP Chautala, and BS Hooda. “We are in a wait-and-watch kind of situation. Let the nominations be filed,” he said.

‘BJP’s rout certain’

Meanwhile, former Chief Minister and senior Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda said these elections will witness a complete rout of the BJP from Haryana’s politics. 

“The Congress will win this election with a thumping majority and the BJP will bite the dust. The BJP has ruined the state in terms of development over the last decade. This is precisely the reason why it changed its leadership just six months before the state election,” said Hooda.

Jat domination

By elevating Nayab Singh Saini to the CM post, the ruling BJP has clearly sent a strong message of non-Jat politics and rewritten the political history of the Bhajan Lal era of the 1970s and the 1980s.

Bhajan Lal Bishnoi — a non-Jat Congress leader — ruled the state as Chief Minister across three tenures.

A close analysis of the political history of Haryana reveals that the first three decades saw 15 CMs, from 1966 to 1999. After that, it saw just three CMs apart from the recently appointed Naib Singh Saini — Om Prakash Chautala (1999-2005), Bhupinder Singh Hooda (2005-14) and Manohar Lal Khattar (2014 to March 2024). 

Mass leader

Interestingly, the 1966-99 period registered the names of Bansi Lal and Bhajan Lal among the successful Chief Ministers, as their combined tenure alone spanned 23-plus years. Bansi Lal, a strong Jat leader of the Congress, ruled for more than 11 years across three tenures.

Shiv Ratan Tanwar, a native of Bhiwani district, said: “Bhajan Lal was a leader of the masses and he proved his potential. If it is seen from the leadership perspective the Jat leaders have dominated politics in Haryana.”

Will the Jats win the electoral battle this time? There's a month to go before we know.