Kerala: CPI(M) in fire-fighting mode as Congress gains muscle

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the CPI(M) lost four of its strongholds among 11 other seats, managing to salvage just one seat. This routing of the leftists came amidst a political tsunami driven by a surge in minority votes rallying behind the Congress, alongside Hindu discontent sparked by the Sabarimala controversy in 2018.

Up until the last elections, Attingal, Alathur, Palakkad, and Kasargod stood as strongholds of the CPI(M), with the party never ceding any of these seats since the demolition of the Babri Masjid.

Minority votes play a decisive role in these constituencies, and the CPI(M) has historically garnered their support since the early 1990s, particularly as the IUML's presence is relatively limited in these areas, compared to constituencies in the Malabar region, with exceptions being two assembly segments in Kasargod.

Alathur defeat in 2019

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, CPI(M)’s most stunning defeat was in Alathur, where incumbent MP and prominent youth leader PK Biju lost to 33-year-old Remya Haridas of the Congress. The margin of Remya's victory, a staggering 1,58,968 votes, was unimaginable for the Communists.

This is precisely why the party is considering fielding the most suitable candidate available in the state for a Scheduled Caste reserved constituency. Dewasom minister K Radhakrishnan is being billed as the candidate.

The party has decided to field its Politburo member A Vijayaraghavan in Palakkad, and V Joy, Thiruvananthapuram district secretary and current MLA of Varkala, in Attingal.

Ezhava votes matter

Attingal was the constituency where the CPI(M) lost its predominantly Ezhava community Hindu vote base, ostensibly due to the Sabarimala fiasco. However, the BJP also made substantial inroads into the constituency.

Although the CPI(M) managed to win all the assembly segments falling under the Attingal constituency, it won't be an easy task for the ruling party in the general election, especially considering the BJP's intention to field Union minister V Muraleedharan. And, there is sitting MP Adoor Prakash of the Congress, who holds sizeable influence among the Ezhava vote bank.

Additionally, Kasargod district secretary of the party, MV Balakrishnan, will contest against Rajmohan Unnithan of the Congress in the Kasargod constituency.

Besides these must-win strongholds, the CPI(M) is also focused on reclaiming the Vatakara, Kozhikode, and Kannur seats in the Malabar region. Furthermore, it aims to wrest seats by nominating senior leaders such as KK Shailaja, Elamaram Kareem, MV Jayarajan, and Thomas Issac.

Anti-incumbency challenge

The widespread anti-incumbency sentiment among the electorate poses a significant challenge to the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF). Most pre-election surveys suggest bleak prospects for Pinarayi Vijayan and his team, with some indicating a marginal increase in their seat count. As is, they hold only one parliamentary seat from the state, their lowest-ever tally.

The discontent among citizens stemming from the fiscal crisis in the state further compounds the challenges facing the ruling coalition. The welfare initiatives championed by the leftist parties have been severely impacted by the financial downturn, exacerbated by the soaring prices of essential goods.

Target Centre

Now, with the elections round the corner, the party leadership is devising a plan to turn the tide in its favour by uniting people against what it calls the Centre’s vindictive stance toward the state and making it a focal point of its poll campaign.

“Given the imposed financial constraints by the Union government, it's inevitable to face anti-incumbency, a reality our party is fully aware of. We're trying to communicate this to the voters, hoping they'll understand. The BJP government's actions have unprecedentedly suffocated the state. It's not just us; many non-BJP ruled states are grappling with similar pressures,” said a CPI(M) leader who is part of the government.

The widely discussed protest orchestrated by Pinarayi in Delhi, in which leaders from other non-BJP states participated, has generated significant optimism for the CPI(M).

Falling back on minority support

With not many favourable conditions in place, the LDF will heavily rely on the support of the minority community, particularly the Muslims. Election data and the voting trends among Kerala Muslims following the anti-CAA protests of 2019 strongly indicate a significant shift in Muslim votes towards the LDF.

This played a crucial role in the LDF's substantial victories in the LSG (local self government) elections of 2020 and its historic win in the assembly elections of 2021.

“In recent years, the UDF in Kerala has been accused of aligning with the Sangh Parivar agenda, whereas the LDF has been effective in addressing the concerns of marginalised minorities,” observes Basheer Vallikkunnu, political commentator.

Whether it's issues like CAA, UCC, or the Ram Temple, Left parties have intervened at the right moment, while the Congress has been hesitant. These factors have gradually shifted the minority community's support towards the Left. Additionally, the decline of Congress at the national level and the migration of its leaders to the BJP camp have further fuelled this trend, adds Bashir.

Making some strides

The LDF sees an opportunity in the differing opinions within the Sunni faction, traditionally aligned with the United Democratic Front (UDF), to further penetrate into the community. CPI(M)-hosted Palestine solidarity events have garnered significant support, contrasting with the Congress's delayed efforts in this regard.

The disciplinary action taken by KPCC against Aryadan Shoukath, the son of late Congress leader and former minister Aryadan Mohammed, for organising a pro-Palestinian rally and Shashi Tharoor's anti-Hamas remarks have also strained relations with their ally IUML. The LDF is swiftly making efforts to court the grassroots members of the IUML as well, emphasising that the latter deserves a greater share of seats within the UDF.

“The Congress currently holds 21 seats in the assembly and is contesting in 16 Lok Sabha seats, while the IUML, with 15 assembly seats, only gets two Lok Sabha seats. Considering the UDF constituents, the IUML should rightfully contest at least four seats. It's important for IUML members to recognise this unfair treatment of their party within the UDF,” says EP Jayarajan, the LDF convenor and CPI(M) central committee member.

In a bid to woo the Muslim voters, the LDF plans to field KS Hamsa, the former secretary of IUML, who was expelled from the party last year due to disagreements with the leadership, as its candidate in the Ponnani constituency. Hamsa, who has backing from a significant Sunni faction, is expected to gain support from the traditional League voter base in Ponnani.

Careful selection

In Kottayam, Idukki, and Pathanamthitta, the LDF is banking on the inclusion of Kerala Congress (M) into its coalition. Resentment towards the Congress MP Anto Antony in Pathanamthitta has led to the resignation of the former district Congress president, who recently joined the CPI(M).

This, along with the high-profile candidacy of Issac, is expected to boost the LDF's prospects in the constituency. The BJP might nominate PC George, who recently merged his party into the saffron outfit, in Pathanamthitta. Notably, this constituency saw a strong showing by the BJP last time, with its state president K. Surendran garnering a record 2,97,396 votes.

It will indeed be intriguing to see if the LDF can successfully counter the increasing anti-incumbency sentiments and allegations against the government, including those involving the Chief Minister and his family, by championing the cause of minorities.