The Federal survey | Kerala opting for Congress; Bengal going for BJP

West Bengal and Kerala, two states with a sizeable Left presence, are all set to throw a surprise in the upcoming Lok Sabha Election.

The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey suggests the BJP electoral juggernaut will make substantial gains in West Bengal this time at the expense of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC).

However, the saffron party can expect to make little headway in Kerala, where the Congress, followed by the Left parties, continues to hold sway.

Elsewhere in the country, the Congress’ prospects look bleak, but if there is one state where the Grand Old Party’s chances are bright, it’s Kerala. Interestingly, it’s one of the few states where the INDIA bloc could bag all the seats irrespective of who wins or loses – the Left Democratic Front (LDF) or the United Democratic Government (UDF), with the BJP being a peripheral player.

The Federal survey suggests the Congress-led UDF is set to sweep Kerala yet again by pocketing 17 seats – a loss of two seats from 2019 notwithstanding – but the vote share is set to go down by at least 3 per cent.

The survey also shows the 2021 Assembly election results – where the Left returned with a thumping victory defying history – will have no bearing on the Lok Sabha elections. The LDF, ruling the state with a whopping 99 seats, is expected to get just two seats, with the vote share falling to 20.54 per cent. This drop comes despite the LDF adding Kerala Congress (M) to its kitty after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Interestingly, the survey says the BJP will win a seat in Kerala, a state considered impenetrable otherwise, though its seat share is expected to tumble by 5 per cent. In 2019, the saffron party drew a blank, but it had a vote share of 13 per cent.

West Bengal: Saffron’s eastern onslaught

Having steamrolled the North and the West, it seems like the BJP is set to capture the East. The Federal survey suggests the BJP could bag 29 seats as against the TMC’s 13 in the upcoming Lok Sabha election.

Clearly upping the ante, the BJP is expected to poll a whopping vote share of 41.78, while TMC’s share is slated to drop to 31.86, a sharp decline of 11.83 per cent. In 2019, the BJP had a 40.64 vote share but could win only 18 seats.

Interestingly, the survey says both the Congress and the Left will draw a blank. The Congress’ vote share will go down to 6.69 per cent and the Left to 1.75, which could be an all-time low for the party that ruled the state for 34 years on the trot.

Incidentally, 10.62% of the voters say they were undecided, leaving scope for the TMC to bridge the gap ahead of the elections.

Coming up tomorrow

To read the previous survey-related articles and watch the panel discussions, click here.

Tomorrow, we will cover two states that have hogged the headlines non-stop in recent weeks. In both states, the BJP has been spreading its tentacles through various means. Will it work? Watch this space!