As Kerala readies for 2024 elections, all roads start from Thrissur

A massive billboard in Cherpu, near Irinjalakuda in Thrissur, Kerala, prominently displays the image of actor-turned-BJP leader Suresh Gopi, urging people to vote for him. “You won’t get cheated for sure,” he assures them. 

Although the BJP has not yet announced its candidate for any seat in Kerala, Suresh Gopi has been actively involved in various events in the constituency.Ever since  Prime Minister Narendra Modi unofficially launched the party’s campaign for the general elections with a women’s convention on January 3, following it up with another visit, for Suresh Gopi’s daughter’s wedding a couple of weeks later, the spotlight has shifted to this constituency in central Kerala.

Thrissur battle

Of the 20 Lok Sabha constituencies in Kerala, Thrissur is the only one where all three main fronts have pulled up their socks, unofficially putting candidates on the ground.

Even though the sitting MP, TN Prathapan of the Congress, has instructed his workers to erase a graffiti seeking votes for him, he has already begun meeting 'important' people in the constituency. CPI leader and former state minister VS Sunil Kumar has also been seen at various public functions in Thrissur.

“We have not yet made a decision. But whatever the situation, we are prepared for the fight. Even though they are pumping huge money and engaging hundreds of paid professionals, there is no indication that the BJP is emerging as a contender for the seat,” a confident-looking Sunil Kumar told The Federal on the sidelines of the International Literature Festival of Kerala 2024 held in Thrissur.

BJP’s lofty target

On the other hand, a state leader of the BJP said: “Sangh Parivar workers have been working in the constituency for the past four or five years and we can see that change on the ground. To finish first in a triangular contest, we are doing our best to reach that goal,” he added, seemingly nonchalant about that mammoth target. The leader said the party was “conducting multipronged work towards this, with top party and RSS leaders coordinating the effort”.

The 2019 case

In 2019, riding on the United Democratic Front (UDF) wave created by the presence of Rahul Gandhi as the candidate from Wayanad, Prathapan emerged victorious in Thrissur over Rajaji Mathew Thomas of the CPI, with Suresh Gopi putting up an impressive show despite finishing third.

The Congress-led UDF won 19 of the 20 seats in Kerala, leaving the CPI(M) with a sole MP from Alappuzha, AM Arif. This was the worst performance by the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala since its inception in 1980.

But Sunil Kumar insisted that “the scenario was different in 2019, when minorities voted for the Congress en bloc, fearing that the Congress would fall short of emerging as the single largest party”.

He added: “They had nothing against the LDF then, and it was evident in the next LSG (local self government) and assembly elections, where we had a thumping victory despite all the odds.” 

Will minorities lean Left?

This time, too, the LDF will rely heavily on minority votes. Issues such as Ayodhya, Uniform Civil Code (UCC), and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) are likely to influence their voting patterns.

On the other hand, with anti-incumbency sentiment mounting and the ruling party plagued by numerous allegations, including a probe against Veena T, the daughter of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, and the wife of PWD minister Mohammed Riyas as well, minority votes will be the LDF’s only resort.

The Congress-led UDF camp shares the Left feeling that it might not receive overwhelming support from the minorities this time. However, it believes the anti-incumbency factor and the Pinarayi Vijayan government’s rising unpopularity due to various issues may help it cross the winning post comfortably.

“We are not expecting the same massive turnout in our favour like in 2019, but the situation is fairly favourable. I am not predicting the number of seats, but we won’t be that short this time, too,” said a Congress leader.

Little change in Congress line-up

According to the party sources, Congress will field almost all the sitting MPs except AICC general secretary KC Venugopal and K Sudhakaran, the PCC president who has expressed his desire to sit out this time owing to health issues.

“Rahul Gandhi will be contesting from Wayanad; there would be no change in it as far as I know,” said K Muraleedharan, MP. “The confusion within the INDIA alliance has no bearing on the Kerala situation, as the question of INDIA contesting together does not arise here,” he added.

The CPI, on the other hand, is considering to field Annie Raja, general secretary of the National Federation of Indian Women and wife of party general secretary D Raja, against Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad, according to party sources.

Welfare pension

Both the Congress and the BJP are focusing on the allegations against the government and its alleged financial mismanagement. Welfare pension, which was the trump card for the Pinarayi government’s second innings, has been stopped for several months, leaving almost 65 lakh beneficiaries in distress.

This has prompted the CPI(M) to squarely blame the Congress for “colluding with the BJP”. MV Govindan, state secretary of the CPI(M), elaborated, “In Kerala, CPI(M) is their main enemy. It is strange to see the Congress legislators echoing in the Assembly the BJP’s voice creates on the streets.”

However, Ajmal Rasaq, a researcher from the state now based in Glasgow, Ireland, believes that “targeting Riyas or Veena would work in the short term, but the real game is in welfare spending”.

“The LDF managed to consolidate a class of voters, prioritising them with welfare spending, since 2006, which has worked well since then. However, the government could not deliver on it due to the financial crunch. So, people could go against the LDF. But the UDF is yet to capitalise on it,” he added.

BJP’s gameplan

The BJP’s primary focus would be on Thrissur this time. But it is hopeful of pulling off a surprise in Thiruvananthapuram, too, by fielding a Union minister to upset Shashi Tharoor, the sitting MP.

N Sreekumar, a veteran journalist who is part of the Congress think tank in the district, said the state is definitely poised for a triangular fight though the BJP is a step behind.

“If you take Thrissur as a specimen, there would be a triangular fight, but I do not think Suresh Gopi can break that threshold and come victorious or even finish second. If Sunil Kumar is the LDF candidate, a fight is on,” he added.

Poll fever

While none of the political fronts has reached a conclusive decision on the candidates, all of them have hit the streets with campaign marches ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

BJP's Surendran has already embarked on a statewide rally on foot, while the Congress is gearing up for its statewide march led by the Opposition leader and the KPCC president.

On the other hand, Pinarayi Vijayan is about to embark on phase two of the Nava Kerala Sadas outreach programme, meeting people from various walks of life at various centres in the state. The face-to-face programme with the student community will be held on February 18 in Kozhikode.