Tectonic plates have moved in Bangladesh, what next?

Row over quota

The students have been protesting against the reintroduction of the 30 per cent quota for the descendants of Bangladesh liberation war for the past one month, but the Hasina government’s bloody crackdown on the protesters proved costly.

Strangely, the quota for war veterans’ descendants, which was abolished in 2018 following students’ protests, seems to have been reintroduced this year following a court order.

Following the renewal of protests, the Supreme Court ordered the reduction of the controversial quota, but this came rather too late in the day, as students’ ire had taken a turn for the worse over the Hasina government’s ham-handed dealing with the agitation. With a death toll of about 300, the focus of the agitation turned away from the quota to the Hasina government itself.

Quota movement gave ammo to pent-up grievances

Long pent-up popular grievances and frustrations that any government with an anti-incumbency factor would struggle against during elections seem to have provided additional ammunition to the already inflamed scene during these protests.

“The quota movement was just the spark,” agrees Sabir Mustafa, managing editor of the Voice of America’s Bangla Service. “There were underlying issues. Resentment has been growing for the past decade, when Awami League presided over three general elections which were all seen as rigged. People felt disenfranchised and began to view the government, especially Hasina as arrogant,” he says.

Why focus shifted from quota to Hasina

The government obviously misjudged the mood of the students, in a political and social context, where there is 40 per cent unemployment in the youth demographics. The brutal use of police power that led to so many killings (over 100 in one day on Sunday), was so counterproductive that the student leadership put aside the quota issue and declared that from henceforth ousting Hasina was the focus of the agitation.

Says Mustafa, “After the COVID-19 pandemic, economic woes added to the general feeling of anger, particularly with the spiralling cost of living, lack of jobs, especially for educated youth on one hand, and rampant corruption among government high-ups on the other. So people in different walks of life were ready to explode.”

Senior independent Bangladeshi journalist Kamal Amhed, based in London, also says that high level corruption was a major issue that led to the popular disenchantment with Hasina government. Plus, the fact that her regime after coming to power in 2008 took away the neutral mechanism to oversee elections (The Caretaker Government) also made her unpopular, he says.

Anger over ‘dictatorial style of governance’

Another factor that has not helped Hasina was her dictatorial style of governance.

She did not behave like a dictator during her first term in 1996-2001, says Mustafa. But after landslide win in 2008, her style of governance changed.

“Incidence of extra-judicial killings, which started under her rival Khaleda Zia's rule, spiralled out of control under Hasina. Enforced disappearances added to the mix of human rights abuses which became common,” Mustafa says.

Role of Army in post-Hasina Bangladesh

So, what next in Bangladesh? Will the Bangladesh Army, which used to be an arbiter of national destiny from 1975 to about 1990, and has stepped in again now, use this as an opportunity to tighten its grip on the government?

Mustafa is disinclined to believe so. “Chances of full-blown military rule in Bangladesh appear remote. The current Army chief does not give the impression that he actually wants to take over. However, the military will want to play a key role in how Bangladesh moves forward post-Hasina,” he says.

Mustafa also believes the army will deliver on the promise to hold a free and fair election.

Who benefits from Awami League’s downfall?

In a bipolar polity that Bangladesh has come to be, does this mean the long suppressed main opposition party, the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) will be the natural beneficiary? Or is there a possibility of a third force (a la Assam Students movement that became a political party) emerging?

Bangladesh observers like Mustafa tend to dismiss the possibility of a third force emerging immediately. “The BNP is the most likely winner because they are the strongest after Awami League which stands thoroughly discredited at the moment. There have been attempts in the past to create a third party, an alternative to the big two, but these efforts have gone nowhere. People will be looking to the leaders of the student movement which overthrew Hasina and wonder if they can organise themselves into a political party,” he says.

What should India do?

What about the implications of the tectonic plate movements in Bangladeshi political landscape for the South Asian neighbourhood, especially India? India has been seen as a major supporter of the Awami League historically, and the Narendra Modi government has been no exception to this tradition.

Ahmed says not only India, but other big powers like China, Russia and the US backed Hasina government for a long time, tolerating her excesses, and added they "need to recalibrate their policy towards Bangladesh" in the future.