Sri Lanka Presidential Polls | IMF packages might help Wickremesinghe's return

With just days to go before the September 21 Sri Lankan presidential polls, candidates are making their last-minute pitches to voters in a pivotal election that will have long-term consequences for a country still struggling to emerge from a catastrophic economic crisis.

Did you read our piece? Will Lanka have a Marxist President?  

A record 39 candidates are contesting this year’s election. Incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe is running as an independent candidate, touting his success in securing a USD 3 billion bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and seeking a mandate from the people to carry forward his economic programme.

Wickremesinghe was elected through a parliamentary vote in July 2022 following the resignation of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to serve out the rest of his term. He largely owed his elevation to the presidency to the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), or Sri Lanka People’s Front, led by the Rajapaksa family.

Rajapaksa scion in fray

Wickremesinghe’s candidacy has now split the SLPP. Most of the party’s parliamentarians have opted to break away to back the president. The SLPP, though, has decided to go ahead and field its own candidate—Namal Rajapaksa, the 38-year-old son of former President and SLPP Chairman Mahinda Rajapaksa. The younger Rajapaksa’s candidacy is seen as a long shot, with most voters reluctant at present to back a family that many hold responsible for plunging the country into its worst economic crisis since Independence.

The SLPP though, is confident that Namal still has significant support. Party general secretary Sagara Kariyawasam noted that Rajapaksa stepped up when the candidate earlier selected by the party, billionaire businessman Dhammika Perera, backed out at the last minute. He said the party had a duty to field a candidate to give an opportunity to the people who gathered around the SLPP. “We are grateful to Namal Rajapaksa for coming forward as if we failed to field a candidate, we would have betrayed those who were supporting our party,” said the top SLPP official. Kariyawasam said the younger Rajapaksa had done really well in his campaign and that the party is hopeful of a “surprising result” come Election Day.

Support for Wickremesinghe

President Wickremesinghe’s supporters credit him with ending long queues for fuel and cooking gas, and powers cuts that at times lasted for 13 hours a day. N Tennakoon, a 63-year-old housewife from the Colombo suburb of Mount Lavinia, is one of them. She said she fully intends to vote for Wickremesinghe in the upcoming election as he “was the only one who stepped up,” when Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to flee the country and resign owing to protests. “We all remember how much we suffered through that crisis. Other political leaders refused to take on the responsibility of steering the country through the crisis, yet Wickremesinghe took on that task and did extremely well. He ended the queues for essentials such as fuel and cooking gas. He ended the power cuts. We should be grateful for all that he has done and support him to take his vision for the country forward,” she remarked.

The President’s critics, however, argue that while there aren’t any shortages of essentials now, most people can’t afford them. Indirect taxes were hiked up to 18% in order to meet targets set by the IMF. While there are signs the economy is recovering, the widespread complaint is that the benefits of this recovery are yet to reach the people. “He (Wickremesinghe) is protecting the rich people who can bear the cost of the country’s bankruptcy and putting the burden on innocent people,” said parliamentarian and former minister Patali Champika Ranawaka. The MP from the main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), or United People’s Force, further alleged that Wickremesinghe is also protecting corrupt people within his administration.

Rivals pose tough challenge

President Wickremesinghe’s main challengers are Sajith Premadasa from the SJB and Anura Kumara Dissanayake from the National People’s Power (NPP). Premadasa is the current Leader of Opposition in the parliament. He lost to Gotabaya Rajapaksa during the 2019 presidential election. This time, there is genuine belief within his party and supporters that Premadasa can win Sri Lanka’s highest office. Ranawaka, who is part of the core team of MPs steering Premadasa’s campaign, expressed confidence that a government under his presidency would be able to stabilise the country’s economy within three years “with proper political and economic management.” He hoped that thereafter, Sri Lanka would achieve sufficient growth that would enable it to restart paying off its loans.

Premadasa faces stiff competition from Dissanayake. The NPP candidate is also leader of the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) or People’s Liberation Front. The JVP mounted two unsuccessful armed insurrections in 1971 and from 1987-1989 to seize power by force. The atrocities committed by the JVP, especially during the far more brutal second insurrection, continues to haunt the party as some voters remain deeply distrustful of the JVP owing to its violent past.

Since returning to the democratic process in 1994 though, the JVP has built up a reputation as being tough on corruption. It even underwent a rebranding under Dissanayake to become the coalition that is the NPP with the aim of distancing the party from its violent past. This has not translated to enough votes on the ground. Dissanayake finished a distant third in the 2019 presidential election, polling just 3% of the total vote. Likewise, the NPP only secured three seats in the country’s 225-member parliament during the 2020 general election.

Change of fortunes for NPP

The NPP’s fortunes changed during the 2022 economic crisis and subsequent street protests that spiraled into the ‘Aragalaya’ (struggle). The ‘Aragalaya’ forced the resignation of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and his brother President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, after the latter was forced to flee the country. While no political party laid claim to leading the struggle, the NPP and its main party the JVP were actively involved in the protests. The NPP’s stock has rapidly risen since then.

A win for Dissanayake would upend the “family politics” that has dominated Sri Lanka since Independence, said Saman Samarakoon, a retired navy officer and NPP Colombo District Executive Member, as he and a group of other party cadres went canvassing door-to-door in Maharagama; an outer Colombo suburb. He pointed out that all three main candidates, Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa and Namal Rajapaksa come from powerful political families.

Ranil Wickremesinghe is the nephew of JR Jayewardene, Sri Lanka’s first executive president, while the fathers of Sajith Premadasa and Namal Rajapaksa were former presidents. A victory for Dissanayake, who is not from the political elite, would completely turn the country’s political culture on its head and energise young people to become interested in joining politics, as they would see that political power was no longer in the hands of one group, suggested Samarakoon.

NPP’s fresh approach lauded

Dissanayake’s supporters, who refer to him as ‘AKD,’ implying first letters of his three names, are confident that he will win and usher in a new era for the country. “I was impressed by AKD and the recent JVP for quite some time,” said Immigration Officer Lakindu Siriwardena (41), explaining his decision to vote for the NPP candidate.

Siriwardena believes the NPP is fresh and though vastly backed by the old JVP, they are more open and modernised. “Marxism or communism is no longer there and are believed to be outdated nowadays. And they (NPP) have a more practical, down to earth approach for most of the issues the country is currently facing.”

Given that the NPP is a new movement, he argued that people can hardly blame them for the 87-89 incidents. Moreover, most members currently in NPP are too young to have taken part in those insurrections, he added. “In addition, people who like to bring forward 87-89 turn a blind eye on the conditions the other major parties have brought down on the country. Most of the difficulties the country is facing are due to the corruption and mismanagement of those parties when they were in government,” he claimed. He added that it was his belief that a Dissanayake presidency will benefit the country, such as by reducing corruption and improving the law and order situation.

Whoever comes to power at the upcoming election will have an unenviable job on their hands. The IMF has warned that while a lot of progress has been made, Sri Lanka is “not out of the woods yet,” and that it is important to safeguard hard won gains. The new president will have to tread cautiously to keep the country from spiraling back to the dark days it experienced two years ago.