Series of diplomatic setbacks puts question mark on Modi’s foreign policy

A series of setbacks over the past few days on issues related to India’s foreign policy has left observers wondering if the Narendra Modi government is now faltering in an area where, until recently, the Prime Minister seemed most confident.

Since coming to power in 2014, Modi has got maximum praise and publicity on foreign policy. The large turnout of the Indian diaspora at his meetings abroad have impressed even leaders in the United States, Britain, and Australia.

India’s economic growth amid global slowdown and China’s stagnating economy in a post-pandemic world had come up for much appreciation by experts in different countries. As a result, Modi was also able to project India’s image as a reliable partner among several key players at the global stage.

Shine coming off?

However, questions are being raised in diplomatic circles if that shine is now coming off.

“For the first time, his foreign policy is being put under the scanner,” said an observer.

The first setback came when strains appeared in the India-US relations, currently its most consequential relationship, over India’s alleged involvement in the murder-for-hire plot against Sikh extremist leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on American soil.

Cornered by dual charges

This was similar to the Canadian charge of India’s involvement in the killing of its national, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh extremist leader, in the country.

India challenged Canada’s charges but agreed to conduct a thorough investigation into the case after America’s allegation. The US kept monitoring the progress in the case.

Kurt Campbell, US Deputy Secretary of State, said in June that they wanted accountability from India and that the issues had been raised at the most senior level of the government.

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also raised it with his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval.

Moscow visit

Modi’s visit to Moscow took place in this backdrop.

It was his first bilateral official visit on his third consecutive term as prime minister.

But the visit took place amid a summit that US President Joe Biden was hosting in Washington to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation for Ukraine and isolate Russia.

It is not clear if Modi’s Moscow trip was ill-timed or deliberately planned to show India’s foreign policy priorities were not dictated by the US. Predictably, it led to a howl of protests from the US and Ukraine.

A prickly hug

When a missile hit a school building in Ukraine, killing several children, matters got worse. The source of the missile was not known but it was assumed that Russia fired it.

The tragedy took place as photographs of Modi holding Russian President Vladimir Putin in a tight embrace were splashed all over the international media.

The American ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, said there was no space for “strategic autonomy” during a conflict.

Sullivan spoke to Doval amid the rising controversy.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was “a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day”.

An oft-repeated statement

Indian officials tried to argue it was unrealistic to expect India to sacrifice national interest to prioritize the Ukraine war.

But it did a course correction. Modi repeated a comment he made to Putin on the sideline of a summit in Uzbekistan yet again in Moscow. He pointed out this was not the time for settling issues through war.

When it was first made, it got wide publicity in the western media and was interpreted as Modi’s criticism of the Russian President for his aggression on Ukraine. The second time, it did not have the desired effect.

Damage control

India decided another course-correction by hurriedly planning a visit by the Prime Minister to Ukraine.

“More than Ukraine, the visit was aimed at appeasing the US, which was extremely miffed over Modi’s Russia visit, and its timing coinciding with the NATO summit in Washington,” said a former Indian ambassador.

Indian officials argued that since Modi was scheduled to visit Poland, it made sense to club it with a trip to Kyiv.

The Bangladesh setback

However, before the twin visits, there was another setback as India’s closest partner in the region, Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina, was thrown out of power by a student protest.

The suddenness of her ouster caught New Delhi totally off guard and raised serious security concerns along its border and also about its future ties with Dhaka.

But it did not distract Modi from going ahead with his planned eastern European visits.

Peace message

The fact that both Poland and Ukraine are the staunchest anti-Russian countries in the region, and among the close allies of the US, was not lost on many observers.

Pro-Modi sections in the establishment argued that since the Prime Minister had visited Moscow, there was no reason why he should not go to Ukraine.

Moreover, India had been talking of peace, an early cessation of violence, and a resolution to the ongoing conflict. By going to Ukraine, he will be able to “complete the circle” of his peace initiative since he had already spoken to Putin about it.

Modi’s visit to Ukraine was seen as a peace mission and the Indian Prime Minister’s role as a possible peacemaker since he also enjoyed the confidence of the Russian President.

Failed mission

But before he could visit Kyiv, Ukraine stepped up its attack on Russia, hitting several targets inside the Russian territory. This hardened Putin’s position, and he announced he was no longer in favour of peace.

“Regrettably, Zelenskyy, by launching his highly symbolic incursion into Kursk a few days before Modi’s visit, has undercut its purpose,” observed former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal.

Zelensky also rejected all the proposals made by Modi during their talks soon after the meeting ended in Kyiv, leading Indian commentators to describe him as “foolish”, “childish”, and “disingenuous” about peace in Ukraine.

However, irrespective of the spin that is being given to justify Modi’s failed peace mission to Ukraine, the larger question arising out of the recent setbacks in India’s foreign policy seems unlikely to die down soon.