India-Canada row: Third term at stake for Trudeau, credibility for India

India-Canada relations have steadily nosedived since September last year, when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau first made the explosive allegation that Indian government agents were involved in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, an Indian born Canadian Sikh, inside Canada.

The row intensified last week when Trudeau said Canadian investigations found Indian diplomats stationed in the country were keeping a tab on Sikh separatists and passing on the information to Indian operatives and criminals to get them eliminated. Things came to a head when both India and Canada expelled six diplomats each in a tit-for-tat move.

Domestic pressure on Trudeau

Amid this standoff, it is noteworthy that not all is well with Trudeau at home, and some observers feel that he has deliberately raked up the India issue to mitigate the damage.

The two-term prime minister of the Liberal Party has faced widespread criticism for turning a blind eye to foreign interference in Canadian politics. Therefore, it may not be a coincidence that Trudeau’s latest attack on India came days before he was scheduled to depose before a commission on foreign interference.

Trudeau is also facing a serious housing crisis, as the cost of owning a home in Canada has increased by 66 per cent.

Trade-reliant Canada’s markets have also shrunk, as Trudeau has strained ties with countries such as China, India, Russia, and Israel. His relations with the US, his most important partner, was severely strained under Donald Trump’s presidency.

Watch: Can India fend off US pressure amid Canada fallout?

Trudeau’s overdependence on Sikhs

More importantly, Trudeau is facing a tough time rallying support for a third term in 2025. He is trailing behind his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre by over 20 points. He has lost two by-elections in quick succession, and a letter was circulating among Liberal MPs calling Trudeau to stand down.

The Sikh-dominated New Democratic Party, which supported him earlier, has withdrawn support, increasing his concern.

While the Sikh community is important for all Canadian politicians, none has wooed them more assiduously than Trudeau. In 2019, a reference to “Sikh extremism” was removed from the Report on the Terrorism Threat to Canada after Sikh leaders threatened to boycott the Liberal politicians.

Electoral importance of Sikh community

Canada’s soft approach on Sikh separatists has been a problem for India for years, especially after Canadian authorities botched up the investigation into the 1985 Air India flight Kanishka’s bombing that originated in Canada.

Nor are the allegations of Indian diplomats’ involvement in spying new. But when similar reports emerged in 1989, they were quietly expelled by the Progressive Conservative Party foreign minister Joe Clark without making it public, commentators point out.

In the past four decades, Sikh separatist activities have heightened significantly, as many openly advocate the creation of Khalistan and take out tableaux celebrating former Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s assassination.

Under Trudeau, this has grown much more. The 800,000-strong Sikh community in Canada is slightly smaller than the Hindus who number 830,000. But politically, they are more united and play an important role in the elections, particularly in the parliamentary seats of British Columbia and Ontario.

Trudeau’s latest move against India is to enlist support for next year’s election.

Also read: Extortion, smuggling, terror: Bishnoi’s men and Canada-based Khalistanis

India's stand

India has steadfastly denied working with mobsters to target Sikh separatists in Canada.

Faced with mounting pressure from its western allies to cooperate in the investigation with Canada, India has decided not only to deny the charges but also accuse Canada of harbouring terrorists and indulging in a smear campaign.

Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal has pointed out that Canada has not shared a “shred of evidence” with India. “On the pretext of an investigation, there is a deliberate strategy of smearing India for political gains,” Jaiswal has said.

US and the Five Eyes

However, the United States throwing its support behind Canada’s charges by indicting a former Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) officer Vikas Yadav for plotting to murder US national Gurpatwant Singh Pannun — designated as a Sikh terrorist in India — in New York has complicated matters.

Earlier, the US arrested Nikhil Gupta, another RAW field office, in the Pannun case.

While the US has sought Yadav’s extradition from India, the Indian government has claimed that neither Yadav nor Gupta were working for it any longer.

Members of the “Five Eyes”—an anglosphere intelligence alliance among Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United States and the United Kingdom—have all backed the Canadian investigation against India. They have urged India to cooperate with Canada’s investigation.

Watch: Smiling Buddha, Kanishka bombing: Justin Trudeau's father has a history with India

Indian strategy

India, on the other hand, has resisted the charges by pointing out that Canadian authorities have been sitting on 26 extradition requests for a decade or more.

“It is strange that people who we asked to be deported” are being blamed by the Canadians for “committing crimes in Canada,” Jaiswal has said.

He has also said that several criminals have provisional arrest requests pending with Ottawa.

“Some of them are charged with terror and terror-related crimes. So far, no action has been taken by the Canadian side on our requests. This is very serious,” Jaiswal has said.

Some Indian commentators also share that view.

“This is hypocrisy at its worst by Trudeau,” said Anil Trigunayat, a former diplomat and Distinguished Fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation, a New Delhi based think-tank.

Also read: What's troubling about allegations of India’s hand in killing of Khalistani activists in Canada

India’s trustworthiness at stake

India is not the first country to be accused of taking out potential terror targets in other countries, point out observers. The US, Israel, and Russia have also done it routinely in the past.

However, carrying out such activities in the territory of a strategic partner is what is being seen as outrageous, raising questions about reposing confidence in India.

India also acknowledges that relations with Canada are extremely important, as the two countries cooperate on a wide range of issues and enjoy strong people-to-people contact through the large Indian diaspora and students and workers there.

However, it thinks bilateral relations can be mended only in a post-election scenario with a new leadership replacing Justin Trudeau.

The US is a different story

As far as the US is concerned, India has been more cooperative with it in the investigations. Both sides realize that the relationship is too important to be jeopardised over differences on a single issue.

Apart from India’s role in the Indo-Pacific to help deal with an assertive China’s rise, New Delhi is also a huge arms market for the US.

The recent purchase of USD 4 billion worth of sophisticated American drones is an example of this growing cooperation. Besides, there are several other areas where the two work closely for mutual benefit.

Observers argue that the Joe Biden presidency will soon end and a new US president will occupy the White House and a new India policy may be pursued.

However, if Donald Trump wins the November election, then all bets are off. It will then be a whole new ball game.