Why Modi's Ukraine visit is important, diplomatically and strategically

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Ukraine on Friday will position India as a possible mediator in bringing the seemingly unending conflict to an early end, according to Indian diplomats..

The Ukraine war has been going on for more than two years. Despite its adverse effect on countries in and beyond Europe, there are no signs of it ending anytime soon.

“We have been in touch with all the stakeholders in the conflict,” said a senior official in the external affairs ministry.

First Indian PM in Ukraine

Modi visited Russia last month and discussed the conflict with President Vladimir Putin. His visit to Kyiv will mark the first visit by an Indian prime minister to the country since diplomatic relations were established between the two sides more than 30 years back.

Before Ukraine, Modi will spend two days in Poland, a country with which India is celebrating the 70^th anniversary of establishing diplomatic ties.

Deepening India-Poland ties

Modi will also be the first Indian prime minister to visit Poland in 45 years. Poland is the sixth-largest economy in the European Union and the largest economy in central Europe.

Poland and India are likely to deepen their economic and military cooperation during Modi’s two-day visit to the country that will end on August 22.

All eyes on Ukraine trip

But it is Modi’s Ukraine visit that has drawn the attention of diplomats in India and elsewhere. The visit aims to keep India relevant in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and create a space for itself where New Delhi, among countries like China and Brazil, can be a possible mediator to bring the war to an early end.

China, in particular, has been keen to play the role of a mediator. It has proposed a peace plan which it shared with Russia and Ukraine.

China factor in Ukraine

China successfully ended the animosity between long-time rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023. It followed it up by bringing peace between rival Palestinian factions, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, earlier this year.

However, India is not keen to allow China to walk away with the credit of ending the Ukraine war when Chinese troops are occupying Indian land in East Ladakh and its aggression in the Indo-Pacific is raising serious concern among countries.

India, a close strategic partner of Russia, did not join the United States and European nations in condemning Moscow or in implementing Western sanctions against it.

Modi-Zelensky meetings

India has repeatedly called for a negotiated end to the war since it began in February 2022.

Unlike the US and its allies, which allowed its president Volomydyr Zelensky to address all major meetings they hosted, India kept him out of the G20 summit in New Delhi in September last year.

Modi has met Zelensky in the past two years, most recently at the outreach summit of the G7 in Italy in June.

Modi appeasing Washington?

This will be the first time he will talk about peace to Zelensky on Ukrainian soil. The visit will take place at a time when the Ukrainian military has made a dramatic push into Russian territory, seriously embarrassing Putin.

A section of experts argue that Modi is going to Kyiv to appease the Americans and assure the US government that despite maintaining ties with Russia, India is committed to building strong strategic partnership with Washington.

Modi's trip caused outrage

Modi’s visit to Moscow in July had created a diplomatic storm in the West as it happened amid a summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) that President Joe Biden hosted in Washington to consolidate support for Ukraine.

Modi’s trip scuttled the plan to isolate Russia. The Kremlin showcased the visit as evidence that Putin enjoys backing outside of the West.

Photos of Modi hugging Putin triggered outrage in the US and Ukraine. Modi was accused of timing the Moscow visit to dilute the importance of the NATO summit

Zelensky’s criticism of Modi

Zelensky had then said: “It is disheartening to see the leader of the world's largest democracy embrace the world's most notorious criminal in Moscow.”

A missile attack on a school in Ukraine killing several people, including children, during the visit forced Modi to tell Putin that this was not an era of war—a remark seen in the West as a rebuke of the Russian President’s aggression in Ukraine.

Is Modi’s visit worth it?

Sceptics doubt if Modi’s attempt will have any real value since the key to peace in Ukraine lies in Washington. Presidential nominee Donald Trump has claimed that ending the Ukraine war will be one of his priorities.

It is not clear though what will happen if his rival Kamala Harris becomes the new American president.