Meghalaya, Nagaland vote today; small players may upset applecart of main parties

Meghalaya and Nagaland will get yet another opportunity to break their respective electoral jinx when the two hill states go to poll on Monday (February 27).

Meghalaya has never given a clear mandate in favour of any political party ever since the All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) bagged 32 of the state’s 60 assembly seats 50 years ago.

The state is divided in three distinct political regions — the Jaintia Hills having seven seats, Khasi Hills accounting for 29 seats and Garo Hills contributing 24 seats.

Varied voting patterns

Rarely the voting patterns in the three regions are similar, which is why no party except for the APHLC in 1972 has ever got a majority.

Also read: Meghalaya Assembly polls: Mukroh villagers seek peaceful resolution to border row

Moreover, while making voting choices, voters in Meghalaya often give more weightage to the credentials of the candidate than his or her party affiliations. This explains why smaller regional parties and independents often chip away with a good number of seats that become vital in government formation.

An analysis of results of last assembly elections, incidentally was also held on February 27, reinforces the trend.

The Jaintia Hills mainly voted for the National People’s Party (NPP) and the United Democratic Party (UDP) last time. Both won three seats each. The Congress that had emerged as the single-largest party with 21 seats, was content with just one from the region.

Again, the NPP that finished second with 19 seats and ultimately led the coalition government, had managed to get only five of the Khasi Hills’ 29 seats.

It was absolutely free for all in Khasi Hills though the Congress was the main beneficiary with 10 seats. The rest of the seats were divided between the People’s Democratic Front (PDF), the UDP, the NPP, the BJP and some small parties and independents.

In contrast, Garo Hills witnessed a bipolar contest between the NPP (12seats) and the Congress (10 sets) with both the parties being led by two prominent Garo leaders — Conrad K Sangma and Mukul Sangma. respectively.

Mukul Sangma’s switch to TMC

Mukul Sangma’s switching of loyalty to Trinamool Congress (TMC) has this time changed the contour of contest in the region.

The main contests here though appear to be between the NPP and the TMC, or, to be more precise, between the two Sangmas. The Congress and the BJP too have though put up valiant shows during campaigning.

This region is crucial for both the TMC and the NPP as they have relatively weaker presence in the state’s two other regions.

The BJP, looking to better its best performance of winning three seats in 1998, has put all its might this time to expand its footprint beyond Khasi Hills.

This time too the Khasi Hills is bracing for multi-pronged contests where the two national parties, the Congress and the BJP, will be fighting it out with the NPP, UDP and the PDF. The TMC is also hoping to throw a few surprises here.

Cong hopes in Jaintia Hills

The Congress is expecting a revival in the Jaintia Hills, the home turf of its state chief Vincent Pala. But its hope can be dashed by the regional challengers here.

Also read: Meghalaya polls: BJP like a class bully, respects no one, says Rahul

Incidentally, the Jaintia and Khasi Hills, the two ethnically closer regions, witnessed a demand for electing a non-Garo chief minister during the high-octane month-long campaign that ended on Saturday.

Major issues

A court-enforced ban on Illegal coal mining in Jaintia and Khasi hills has severely affected livelihood avenues. Boundary disputes with Assam, introduction of inner-line permit, lack of development and job opportunities were the other major issues during the high-voltage campaign.

Even the NPP’s alliance partners in the outgoing government, who are now going solo, have accused it of failing to meet the people’s expectations.

The bickering allies however might need to bury the hatchet soon if Meghalaya fails to break the jinx of not giving a clear mandate once again.

The BJP and the NPP have already sounded that they are open for a post-poll reconciliation.

Ruling combine strong in Nagaland

In the neighbouring Nagaland, the ruling combine of the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and the BJP have already opened their account with the saffron party nominee from Akuluto Kazheto winning uncontested.

Another of the BJP’s 20 candidates, Jacob Zhimomi from Ghaspani-1, is also sitting pretty with his main rival Vikato Aye of the Nagaland People’s Front (NPF) backing out of the poll race just four days before polling. He told his supporters to back Zhimomi.

Also read: Nagaland voters seek infra development, equal job opportunities

Moreover, none of the opponents of the ruling alliance, which has shared seats in 40:20 ratio, could give candidates in even half of the state’s 60 seats.

The NPF is contesting just 22 seats and the Congress in 23 seats even though these two outfits have positioned themselves as the main challengers to the NDPP-BJP combine.

The campaigning of the two outfits also lacked vigour.

Challenge from regional parties

The NDPP-BJP’s re-election bid however can face a challenge from unexpected quarters as the parties like the LJP, NPP, RPI managed to rope in some potential winners, who have been denied tickets by the NDPP and the BJP. A few independent candidates are also expected to give a tough fight.

The NCP and the NPP are contesting in 12 seats each, the LJP (RV) in 15, RPI (A) in nine, JD (U) in seven, the CPI and RPP in one each, and independents in 19 seats.

The call for a separate state by the Eastern Nagaland People’s Organisation (ENPO), which had threatened to boycott elections if its demand was not met, casting a shadow on the polling process, was among the main poll issues highlighted by all parties.

The ENPO had withdrawn its boycott-call after home minister Amit Shah promised to look into their “genuine” demand.

Issues during campaigning

The issue of corruption, removal of Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act from the entire state, Naga peace process were the other issues that figured in the electioneering.

Also read: Nagaland: BJP-NDPP exude confidence even as Naga peace process remains in limbo

The one issue that, however, got special attention this time was the political empowerment of women in the state with chief minister Neiphiu Rio himself batting for the need to elect a woman candidate to the state’s assembly.

The state is yet to have a woman legislator. This time too, only four of the 183 candidates in the fray are women. If any of them wins, that will be history.