Where does BJP stand in Assam post-Citizenship Bill protests?

On March 10, as the Election Commission announced dates for the elections to the 17th Lok Sabha, Assam minister Himanta Biswa Sarma was a happy man. “The BJP and our allies will win between 19 and 21 seats out of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in entire Northeast,” he declared with his usual air of confidence. The party, at present, has eight MPs — seven from Assam and one from Arunachal Pradesh — in the Lok Sabha.

There is a reason behind the former Congressman’s confidence. Every election held in Northeast since Sarma’s arrival has seen the BJP’s sweep of the hill states, one after another. The decisive victory in Assam in the 2016 Assembly elections gave the BJP a chance to play a key role in the politics of the contiguous states of the region, far away from the Hindi heartland. Until the win in Assam, the Northeast looked almost unbreachable for the saffron party.

Much water has flowed down the Brahmaputra since that victory. While the saffron party continues to hold on to its allies, the BJP has faced a big setback in recent times in Assam following its move to pass the contentious Citizenship (Amendment) Bill in the Lok Sabha.

One after another, almost all other states joined the chorus against the Citizenship Bill, finally forcing the BJP to maintain status quo on the issue for now. The Bill lapsed after the central government failed to pass it in the Rajya Sabha during the last Parliament session. The fury against the Bill saw its alliance partner in Assam, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), snapping ties with the BJP.

The Bill intends to amend the Citizenship Act, 1955, to grant Indian citizenship to non-Muslims from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan on the grounds of religious persecution, even if they entered the country without valid documents till December 31, 2014. It evoked strong opposition, especially in Assam, fearing that an overwhelming number of suspected Hindu Bangladeshis will threaten the cultural and political authority of the indigenous people.

Summer of 2014

In 2014, the Modi wave saw the BJP winning seven of 14 seats — the most ever — in the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress and the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) won three each while an independent candidate won one. The AGP drew a blank.

The regional party, which came into existence in 1985 after a six-year-long Assam Agitation against illegal infiltration of Bangladeshis, was twice in power. But after losing all clout in the state, it aligned with the BJP during the 2016 Assembly polls.

The BJP and its allies (AGP and Bodoland People’s Front) won a combined 86 seats in the 126-member Assam assembly. On its own, the BJP won 60 seats, the AGP 14 and the BPF 12 seats. The AGP quit the alliance on January 8 after the Citizenship Bill was passed in the Lok Sabha on January 8.

What has changed other than Citizenship Bill

Apart from Sarma’s manoeuvring, the BJP’s strong electoral performance in Assam owes much to the efforts put in by the party’s ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). It was the Sangh’s decades of hard work that had laid the ground for the BJP’s successes in the region.

Also, when Sarma left the Congress to join the BJP in 2015, the Congress was already facing a strong anti-incumbency wave. Besides, the internal squabbles in the Congress state unit also helped the saffron party. The BJP’s alliance with the AGP and BPF further helped the party spread its roots in the grassroots.

In 2019, with the AGP out of the alliance, the BJP has declared to contest 13 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Assam, leaving one for ally BPF.  Assam’s 14 constituencies will see polling in three phases on April 11, 18 and 23. The Congress, on the other hand, is still riddled with infighting. Moreover, its reluctance to join hands with the AIUDF is unlikely to help it make a comeback. Frustrated with the Congress’s “arrogance”, perfume baron and AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal has now braced for a lonely war against the BJP.

Making things worse, Ajmal claimed, that the Congress instead of taking on the BJP is busy accusing the AIUDF of having a secret understanding with the BJP.  The Congress had accused the AIDUF of having a tacit pact with the BJP in 2016 as well. In the last Assembly elections, the AIUDF was seen as the possible kingmaker in case of a hung Assembly. It was a different story that the AIUDF chief later lost his constituency South Salmara to Congress’s Wazed Ali Choudhury. “Baseless allegation by the Congress shows it is still worried by the AIUDF’s growth,” Ajmal added.

With the opposition fighting every new battle with the same old strategies — except the Citizenship Bill issue — Sarma and the BJP certainly have less to worry about.