BJP looks to fish in troubled waters as EPS-OPS rift widens in TN

On August 15, when India was celebrating Independence Day, senior ministers of Tamil Nadu were busy negotiating a peace deal between Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palanisamy (EPS) and his deputy O. Paneerselvam (OPS). End of the day, the two leaders issued a joint statement imposing a gag order on their party men asking them not to rush to the media with their views on the party or its leadership.

The extraordinary statement was issued amid a raging proxy battle between the two on the question of controlling the government and the party. This followed a war of words between the supporters of the two leaders. It all started with one of the ministers asserting that AIADMK would face the forthcoming assembly elections with Edappadi as their leader. This was countered by another minister saying that the MLAs would elect a leader after the elections.

On I-Day things turned murky when posters appeared in Paneerselvam’s hometown, Theni, asserting that their leader was the real choice of ‘Amma’ and therefore should be declared as the next chief ministerial candidate. Edappadi supporters tore the posters, causing tense moments for the local administration.

A ‘ceasefire’ meeting was called at Deputy CM Paneerselvam’s residence in Chennai. Ten ministerial colleagues of Edappadi held an hour-long discussion with the Dy. CM before taking a proposal to the CM. Before meeting OPS, the ministers held a confabulation between themselves at the secretariat. After some back and forth, a joint statement was issued which skirted the real issue and instead advised party leaders not to speak to the press. It is said two issues were discussed in the meeting: who should be the chief ministerial candidate and what should be the party’s relationship with the BJP.

O. Paneerselvam was twice chosen as stand-in chief minister by Jayalalithaa when she had to go to jail following her conviction in corruption cases. On both occasions, he performed his duties as a loyal follower. On December 5, 2016, a day after Jayalalithaa passed away her close associate and mysterious ‘soul sister’ VK Sasikala stamped her authority by making Paneerselvam the chief minister for the third time. It should have been clear to him that he was being chosen again as a stand-in chief minister and that he should not develop his own ambitions.

On December 31, Sasikala formally took over the reins of AIADMK as its general secretary. This remains the most powerful post of the party held earlier by the likes of Jayalalithaa and MGR. On February 5, 2017, she was elected the leader of the legislative party. Next day, Paneerselvam quit but he was asked to continue by the governor, who delayed the  swearing-in of Sasikala. He waited for a final verdict on the disproportionate assets case which was then pending for a while. On February 14, she was convicted and arrested within 24 hours.

Lady luck smiled on Edappadi who was sworn in as chief minister within the next three days. He was the new choice of Sasikala. Political analysts quickly wrote obituaries and said that neither EPS, OPS or their party AIADMK would survive. Though EPS was a proxy of Sasikala, the powerful hand of the Centre was seen backing the new chief minister. It was felt that BJP was propping a weak regime so that at an appropriate occasion it could walk away with a chunk of AIADMK’s support base necessary to replenish its own weak ranks in the state.

To quell factional fight and to retain AIADMK as one entity, Centre brokered a deal between OPS and EPS. As a result, EPS was allowed to continue as chief minister with OPS as his deputy. The reigns of AIADMK were handed over to OPS by making him Convenor of the party. But he was denied absolute powers as EPS was made co-convenor and the big post of General Secretary was kept in abeyance. BJP was perhaps ensuring a holding operation in the state till it carves out its own support base with the help of a friendly government.

If that was the game plan, it doesn’t seem to have worked very well for the saffron party as EPS steadily gained ground. To the surprise of many observers, he not only consolidated control over the government but also appointed his followers in key positions in the party. He sidelined OPS both in the government and the party.

Though coronavirus is still spreading in the state, Tamil Nadu government cannot be accused of not trying enough. The state continues to conduct the largest numbers of tests in the country. The chief minister last week shocked his admirers and critiques alike by refusing to toe Centre’s line on New Education Policy. Eyebrows were raised again when he imposed a ban on ‘Vinagaya Chaturthi’ or Ganesh Chaturthi processions. BJP and its extended arms such as Hindu Munnani have been trying to mobilise support for its brand of aggressive Hindutva by organising such rallies which is new to Tamil Nadu.

Perhaps annoyed by CMs assertive moves, BJP state president, L Murugan, claimed that it would be his party which would ultimately be calling the shots in the forthcoming assembly elections. Traditionally in Tamil Nadu, national parties have been junior partners whenever coalitions are struck with their Dravidian principals, especially when it comes to assembly polls. Therefore the statement came as a surprise to many, especially when it is well known that BJP has a limited base in the state.

An element of urgency has been added to the debate with expectations of Sasikala’s release from jail by the first week of September. It is speculated that OPS and EPS would like to work out a road map on who would control the party and the government, before Sasikala’s entry muddles the situation further.

Though Sasikala has been expelled from AIADMK and she is now President of AMMK, a new outfit launched by her nephew TTV Dinakaran, apprehensions remain within AIADMK. This is because most ministers including EPS and OPS were her nominees during Jaya’s time. In the newly-changed circumstances, both the leaders are attempting to capture AIADMK as they see it as a permanent entity as compared to Chief Ministership which depends upon the performance at the hustings.

Though Tamil Nadu politics has been on the boil since the death of Jayalalithaa in 2016, it has now assumed an urgency as assembly election are only eight months away. Traditionally, the state has always been in throes of tall and charismatic leaders often with close links with the celluloid world. The intersection of real and reel life makes state politics colourful, full of drama, dialogues and intrigues. Hero worship has been the norm, deification of a leader a trait followed with absolute obedience. The demise of Jayalalithaa has changed all that for AIADMK.

EPS and OPS, the new set of leaders who have since assumed the posts vacated by their leaders, are trying to reset the narrative in their own ways. They have to prove their mettle and the time is now. The aggressive attempts by BJP to get a foothold in state politics has added a new zing. BJP and AIADMK had fought the 2019 parliamentary elections and subsequent by-election to the state assembly as a coalition. State politics is only likely to get more intense as BJP is trying to wrest control of the narrative. AIADMK leaders are resisting this so that they are not seen vulnerable in the eyes of the electorate.