In UP, BJP hopes lie in splintering of Dalit and Muslim votes

A few electoral trends can easily be discerned now that the first phase of election is over in Uttar Pradesh.

One, despite the strong push by the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal alliance against the BJP, the ruling party may well emerge a “bit down but far from being totally out.” This is what seasoned observers of western UP’s politics believe.

The main reason behind their argument is signs of shifting of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)’s Dalit vote-base to other parties. The BJP’s gain from the vote-shift, according to them, may well turn out to be fairly significant.

This is said to be due to the lacklustre campaign by Mayawati in western UP. The BSP leader made a token visit to Agra in the run-up to the first phase.

The shift in BSP votes to other parties is expected to be as huge as “50 per cent.” Most of these votes are believed to have been bagged by the BJP because of the distribution of free foodstuff by the government among the poor following the COVID-19 lockdown.

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Yet, the BJP may not have cornered all the Dalit votes since the younger lot has, of late, become quite critical of the ruling establishment. This is evident from social media posts as well as in-personal interactions, observers say.

The BJP appears to be faring poorly in constituencies falling in districts like Baghpat, Meerut, Shamli, and Muzaffarnagar, while it seems better off in Noida, Ghaziabad, and Bulandshahr. This is because the recent agitation by farmers was mainly spearheaded by the peasantry from the Meerut-Muzaffarnagar Jat belt, traditionally a stronghold of the RLD, which is now led by Jayant Singh.

Five years ago the BJP had won 53 out of the 58 assembly constituencies that went to polls on February 10. Independent pollsters believe the ruling party would be lucky to retain half of these seats.

The five seats that the BJP lost in 2017 were shared among SP, BSP and RLD (two, two, one).

Those familiar with the terrain say unlike the 2017 assembly polls, the SP-RLD campaign has been much stronger this time. The farm-bills issue has led to BJP cadre and their leaders being shooed away from Jat strongholds.

On Thursday things got worse for the BJP. Amid voting came the news of bail being granted by Allahabad High Court to Ashish Mishra, son of Union Minister of State for Home Ajay Mishra. This renewed the Jat farmers’ resolve to join the Opposition parties’ campaign in the eastern parts of the state, where polls are yet to be held. Ashish is the main accused in the murder of four farmers and a journalist in Lakimpur Kheri last year.

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As for the eastern parts of UP, the SP has a few allies other than the RLD. This makes the SP-led alliance socially savvier than what was the case in 2017. And if the farmers’ agitation dogged the BJP in western UP, the simmering discontent among youth in central and eastern UP has of late led to recurring showdowns between students and police.

Though the youth discontent may not be as evident, it has potential of spoiling the BJP’s chances at the hustings. That is likely why the current row over a few Muslim girl students wearing hijab in BJP-ruled Karnataka has erupted so suddenly. It can, indeed, serve as detraction for students and youth not only in the South but North too. It is more so, since of late the young and educated adults have been faced with lack of employment any time soon.

But before the central and eastern parts of UP another 55 out of a total of 403 assembly constituencies stretching over nine more districts in the western region will go to polls next Monday, February 14. These districts are Bijnor, Saharanpur, Amroha, Moradabad, Sambhal, Rampur, Bareilly, Badaun and Shahjahanpur.

In all these places the BJP may face a stiff challenge because Muslim voters have a fair share in the population. Thus, the party may well try to romp home in a few cases because of the presence of multiple Muslim candidates in several constituencies.

It is so because parties like BSP and Congress have often put their bet on Muslim candidates in the region. This is besides the All India Muslim Ittehadul Mulimeen’s (AIMIM) decision to join the fray.

Nothing suits the BJP and its majoritarian push more than minority community candidates vying against each other. In the past this has often added weight to the BJP’s committed vote bank though this time it is yet to be seen how the poll scenario pans out.