BJP, SP tweak caste arithmetic for UP election

Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous State with nearly 24 crore people, will soon elect a new government. The Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in the State flaunts its highways and makes vikas (development) claims — from better governance and law-and-order to ease-of-doing business — and the Opposition points to the polarisation of society, rising crime, and poor handling of the pandemic.

Yet, everyone is cognizant of the fact that what ultimately matters in UP is the caste arithmetic. The party that strikes upon the right equation at the right point of time is going to land the throne.

Despite Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s valiant efforts to resurrect the Congress’ fortunes in UP, and the sizeable though waning presence of BSP chief Mayawati, the 2022 election is expected to be a straight fight between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party (SP).

Also read: Akhilesh is emerging stronger, but hurdles grow tougher too

A number of factors helped the BJP sweep the election five years ago: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, the consolidation of the non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalit castes along with the party’s traditional upper-caste vote bank, and a divided Muslim vote. Two years later, in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP’s vote-share rose even higher, to 50%, despite the SP-BSP alliance polling a creditable 38%.

Pitched battle between BJP and SP

The BJP hopes to repeat its 2017 performance, where it received nearly 40% of the votes and won 312 seats in the 403-seat Assembly. A repeat victory will give the BJP momentum going into the 2024 general election. However, the landscape stands altered now. The BSP has been rather inactive, and smaller parties are making their presence felt. The farmer protest has left the western part of the State rather embittered.

Also read: Here is why Yogi Adityanath chose to contest Gorakhpur Urban seat

SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is relying on a caste coalition to bring down the BJP. Stepping beyond the party’s traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank, he has been trying to get the wider base of backward classes (BC) into the SP fold. In an aggressive pitch, Akhilesh has promised the State’s OBC community a much-demanded caste census if he is voted to power. For the BCs, he has promised “rights, honour” and representation in tandem with their share in the population.

The charm offensive seems to be working. In recent days, several non-Yadav OBC leaders, from both the BJP and the BSP, have joined the SP. The BJP claims these leaders no longer represent the non-Yadav OBCs, who remain firmly with the saffron party. Akhilesh, meanwhile, claims that if his caste calculus is right, his party could cross 300 seats.

The caste components

Since there is no caste census (apart from that for SCs and STs done traditionally), the exact percentage for each caste in UP is not known. However, per the assessment of political parties, 25-27% of the population belongs to the ‘general’ castes (including 10% Brahmins and 7% Thakurs), 39-40% OBCs (including 7-9% Yadavs and 4% Nishads, also known as Mallahs), 20% SCs and STs (including 10% Jatavs), and 16-19% Muslims.

There are five main voting blocks in the State: upper castes, Muslims, non-Yadav OBCs, Yadavs and Jatavs. In the past, parties have formed the government with just 30% vote share, by bagging the votes of two full groupings and bits from the non-Yadav OBCs group. The SP did so in 2012 (Muslim-Yadav combination) and the BSP in 2007 (Muslim-Jatav).

How BJP swept the 2017 polls

The 2017 Assembly polls were seen as the consensus of the public on the demonetisation move of November 2016. Yet, in keeping with tradition, the UP polls adhered to the caste theme.

In a strategic move, the BJP contested under a collective leadership and capitalised mostly on the political ‘brand’ of Modi. So much so it did not have a CM face for the State. The BSP banked on Dalit and Muslim votes while the SP focused on the Yadavs and Muslims. With some smart thinking, the BJP actively wooed non-Jatav SCs, non-Yadav OBCs and upper castes.

In its pitch to the non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav SCs, the party focused on three things: that the Yadav and Jatav communities had benefited from various Central schemes for OBCs and SCs; that they had also cornered all the benefits under the SP and BSP governments; and that the BJP stood for sabka sath, sabka vikas (progress for all). It projected four faces on its banners — Rajnath Singh (Thakur), Kalraj Mishra (Brahmin), Keshav Maurya (non-Yadav OBC) and Uma Bharti (Lodh, non-Yadav OBC) — none of whom got the CM seat.

This way, the BJP trained its focus on around 60% of the total vote bank — 10% Brahmins, 12% Thakurs and Vaishyas, 33% non-Yadav OBCs, and 7-10% non-Jatav Dalits. Further, the Muslim vote got divided between the SP-Congress alliance and the BSP. While Muslims voted for the alliance in western UP, in other parts of the State they voted for the BSP.

Mandal vs Kamandal: What gives SP hope

The SP says this time the situation is different, and is taking hope from that. According to the party, Adityanath, a Thakur, has alienated large sections of Brahmins as well as non-Yadav OBCs, and the caste bank of the BJP lies splintered. This, it says, is reflected in the exodus of leaders from the party, including three sitting OBC ministers.

Also read: Has Akhilesh Yadav made up his mind to fight UP polls?

The SP also says the election is now bipolar, with the BSP and the Congress relegated to the side-lines. It believes the entire anti-BJP vote, especially the Muslim vote, will come to it. The BJP, however, maintains that the non-Yadav OBC voter remains with it and the desertion of some leaders of that community won’t impact the voters.

But it is a pitched battle and the SP is leaving no stone unturned. Akhilesh is approaching non-Yadav OBC and MBC leaders to form small alliances in various pockets. The party is projecting it as a Mandal vs Kamandal battle, with Mandal standing for the SP’s backward class focus and Kamandal standing for the BJP’s Hindutva project.

To start with, the SP has tied up with seven regional parties –Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), Mahan Dal, Janwadi Party (Socialist), Apna Dal faction led by Krishna Patel, Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party, Shivpal Yadav-led Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party, and Gondwana Gantantra Party. While these are small parties with matching supporter bases, they can add up to a sizeable vote bank. Further, the SP has joined hands with Om Prakash Rajbhar-led Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), a former BJP ally.

There are MBCs such as Nishad, Bind, Loniya, Mali and Gadariya, to name just a few, who also have leaders with political aspirations. Which party woos them first could turn the tide in specific seats.

BJP’s gameplan for 2022

The BJP is tweaking its caste machinations this time round. For one thing, it is trying to unite castes across the spectrum under the Hindutva umbrella. For another, it is focusing harder on Dalits and OBCs, allotting nearly 60% of the seats in the first list to these brackets.

The BSP has lost its edge in the State, and the BJP knows it will never gain that party’s Muslim votes. Hence, it is wooing Dalits and OBCs harder so that all the BSP votes will not go to the SP.

Also read: The loud noise of Mayawati’s silence

As early as October 2021, the BJP formed alliances with seven smaller parties with strong OBC bases. These are: Bharatiya Manav Samaj Party, Shoshit Samaj Party, Bharatiya Suheldev Janata Party, Bharatiya Samata Samaj Party, Manavhit Party, Prithviraj Janshakti Party, and Musahar Andolan Manch (Gareeb Party). Like the SBSP, these seven parties enjoy sizeable support in the Purvanchal (easter) region of UP.

The farmer protest enjoyed support in western UP, where there might be some residual anger against the BJP. So, it is imperative for the party to spruce up its chances in eastern UP.

The UP Assembly elections are slated to begin on February 10 and end on March 7; the results will be declared on March 10. The seven-phase polling to elect 403 MLAs may spring several surprises as the parties fine-tune their caste strategies to seize the prized crown.