What next in Maharashtra? Here are 8 scenarios that could play out

Shiv Sena senior leader Eknath Shinde’s midnight rebellion against his party has thrown the Sena-NCP-Congress tripartite government into turmoil from which it is unlikely to recover.

However, given various permutations and combinations in the 288-member assembly, there are a few scenarios that can be envisaged. But most of these possibilities depend on how many of Sena’s 56 MLAs have Shinde successfully convinced to rebel.

Let’s take a look at some of these possibilities.

Eknath Shinde’s block needs to have at least 37 MLAs in order to overcome the anti-defection law provisions. If the Shinde camp manages to reach this number, the next logical step would be to merge with the BJP after forming a separate party, or simply back the latter in the assembly.

Forming a new party

If Shinde does form a new party, the BJP may go in for a no-confidence motion and with Shinde’s support defeat the MVA government on the floor of the house.

Also read: As Eknath Shinde postures, how do the numbers add up for Uddhav?

On Wednesday, Shinde claimed he had the backing of 40 MLAs.

Shinde could even end up becoming the chief minister of Maharashtra with the support of the BJP if he manages to get the required 37 MLAs to avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law.

Maharashtra could also go the Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka way. If Shinde fails to get the required 37 MLAs, he along with the MLAs supporting him could resign from the house. In that case, the fate of MVA will depend upon how many MLAs finally end up resigning, and if any return back to the fold.

Sena-BJP reuniting

Another possibility could be of Shiv Sena and BJP reuniting. Shinde’s rebellion is said to be born out of frustration ever since the party allegedly abandoned its Hindutva principles and joined hands with the NCP and Congress. His dissatisfaction also stems from limited access to Matoshree and the fact that Aaditya Thackeray is promoting young guns in the party like Varun Sardesai.

Shinde, thus, has demanded that the Sena reunites with the BJP. In that scenario, Uddhav Thackeray will likely have to step down as chief minister.

If Shinde fails to get to the magic number of 37, and with some of the rebel MLAs returning back to the Sena camp, the Maha Vikas Aghadi government could survive.

Also read: Maharashtra deadlock LIVE: No dissolution of Assembly, says MVA Alliance

Sena may expel Shinde from the party, but would bring home the MLAs that have rebelled along with him. In that case, Sena will continue as a part of the MVA government.

Shinde, rebels return

In another possibility, though very remote, Shiv Sena may manage to convince both, Shinde and the other rebel MLAs, to come back within the fold of the party. Shinde will most likely continue as a minister, but his role within the party may be diminished. On the other hand, if Shinde does decide to return to the party, he may also end up having the upper hand over the Thackerays — having saved the party from an embarrassing dissolution of its the government that it helms.