Can Sharad Pawar, master of political manoeuvring, save NCP from brink of collapse?
As he chalks out plans to tour across Maharashtra, 82-year-old NCP founder Sharad Pawar has, arguably, set himself up for the toughest political challenge of his six-decade-long public life. Betrayed by his nephew, Ajit Pawar, and confidantes whose careers he shaped (and resuscitated) over the years – from Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal to Sunil Tatkare and Dilip Walse Patil – the octogenarian Maratha strongman will have to employ every Machiavellian stratagem in his voluminous primer on power politics to avenge a slight that is as political as it is personal.
Yet, events that have unfolded in Mumbai since Sunday (July 2), when Ajit Pawar and eight other senior NCP leaders joined Maharashtra’s BJP-Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) government as ministers in defiance of the Senior Pawar’s wishes, aren’t merely the result of an ambition-driven feud within the Pawar clan. Nor are they simply the outcome of vindictive pressure politics by the BJP against leaders it has frequently attacked for corruption only to embrace them later to serve the party’s political agenda of demolishing all rivals.
Watch | NCP break-up: Is the real Pawar twist yet to happen?
All eyes on key meetings
Immediate questions about how far Ajit’s fresh rebellion would succeed may be answered later on Wednesday (July 5) when the Senior Pawar and his renegade nephew preside over separate meetings they have called of their party’s MPs, MLAs and other office bearers. The NCP founder has been asserting that barring Ajit, Rajya Sabha MP Patel, Lok Sabha MP Tatkare, the eight party MLAs who are now ministers in the Shinde cabinet and a couple of other legislators, all other NCP MPs, MLAs and MLCs continue to back him and the MVA alliance. Ajit, Bhujbal and Patel, on the other hand, have claimed that all 53 NCP MLAs in the state are with the rebels.
Whether Ajit, with his fresh coup, has finally outsmarted his wily uncle is likely to become clear after these meetings conclude. Irrespective of whichever way the ongoing drama in Maharashtra turns, it is certain that the shenanigans at play will have implications on a political canvas that is much broader than the state’s boundaries and, as such, the BJP may not want to break into jubilation just yet.
NCP’s loss is BJP’s gain
For the BJP, Ajit Pawar’s rebellion may seek to serve multiple goals in one fell swoop. It avenges the humiliation that Sharad Pawar had heaped on the BJP in November 2019 when he orchestrated the formation of the Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress alliance within 80 hours of Ajit Pawar and Devendra Fadnavis taking oath as Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister and chief minister, respectively, thereby forcing the ouster of the newly sworn-in BJP-led government.
More importantly, if Ajit is, indeed, able to deliver 40+ MLAs of the NCP to the BJP-led alliance in Maharashtra, the saffron party will have the cushion it needs to stay in power if Shinde and 16 other Sena MLAs who had rebelled against Uddhav Thackeray last year stand disqualified as lawmakers.
So far, Maharashtra Assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar has shown no urgency to decide the disqualification petitions filed by Uddhav’s Sena against the Shinde-faction MLAs even though the Supreme Court had, on May 11, directed the Speaker to do so “within reasonable time”. The Uddhav camp has moved a fresh plea before the apex court accusing the Speaker of deliberately delaying adjudication of the disqualification petitions and sought clear directions for Narwekar.
Sunil Prabhu, MLA from Uddhav’s faction of the Sena who filed the plea before the Supreme Court, told The Federal, “if the Speaker followed the Constitution’s Tenth Schedule and the spirit of the Supreme Court’s May 11 judgment in our case, the Shinde group would stand disqualified and the unholy government in Maharashtra would fall… he has deliberately delayed action on the disqualification petitions so that his party (the BJP) has time to break MLAs from the NCP by using Ajit Pawar and make up for the numbers in the Assembly that it risked losing once Shinde group MLAs were disqualified”.
Also read: How many MLAs do Ajit, Sharad camps have? Big NCP meetings today
Jolt to MVA coalition, Opposition unity ahead of 2024
Ajit’s second switch-over, though widely anticipated, has also helped the BJP to jolt the ongoing efforts of disparate Opposition parties from across the country that have been trying to unite electorally against Narendra Modi’s party ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Political astrologers have been predicting that the toughest challenge to the BJP from a united Opposition would come from the MVA coalition in Maharashtra and the Mahagathbandhan of the RJD, JD(U), Congress and the CPI-ML in Bihar. In these two states, which collectively account for 88 Lok Sabha seats, Opposition Unity isn’t a work in progress but a present reality. With 48 seats, Maharashtra has the second highest share of seats in the Lok Sabha after Uttar Pradesh, and the BJP, along with Eknath Shinde’s Sena, was staring at the possibility of massive electoral losses to the MVA not just in the Lok Sabha but also in the state assembly elections that are due around October-November next year. Similar losses for the BJP and its allies were being projected from Bihar, where chief minister Nitish Kumar is also leading efforts for wider Opposition Unity beyond his home state.
By first engineering a split in the Shiv Sena and now fomenting Ajit’s rebellion, the BJP has created confusion among voters of the Sena and the NCP. It is widely rumoured that the saffron party has similar plans to destabilise the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar, using the vast resources at its disposal, central investigating agencies included.
Bihar BJP’s next target?
Last month, the BJP had successfully drawn erstwhile Mahagathbandhan constituent, former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha, to its side. With practically all members of RJD chief Lalu Yadav’s family in the line of fire of sundry investigating agencies, speculation is rife that the BJP plans to engineer defections from Bihar’s ruling coalition next, as also from the JMM-Congress-RJD coalition that rules neighbouring Jharkhand.
“Sharad Pawar is not only among the tallest leaders in the Opposition but also someone who could outsmart Modi and Amit Shah. He was playing a key role in bringing Opposition parties together outside Maharashtra while also keeping the MVA intact. By going after him, the BJP’s message for all its rivals is clear: if you stand in Modi’s way, you will face grim consequences. As the Lok Sabha polls come closer, you will see an even more vindictive and vicious BJP. The gloves are completely off now. For the entire Opposition, the real test now is to stand firm against such politics and not be intimidated; those who cower will never be forgiven by the electorate,” Rajya Sabha MP and Shiv Sena (Uddhav) leader Priyanka Chaturvedi said.
Clash of Pawars
How far Sharad Pawar, a consummate politician who has weathered many storms to remain among India’s most powerful political satraps despite leading a party with an extremely limited electoral footprint, succeeds in fighting off his current challenge will be known soon. Shortly after Ajit’s rebellion, his uncle had said such challenges aren’t new for him. He had cited how in the early 1980s, shortly after his first chief ministerial stint (Pawar had become chief minister at the age of 38) was abruptly cut short by Indira Gandhi’s decision to impose President’s Rule in Maharashtra, all but six of the 58 MLAs backing him had left him but despite the desertions he had bounced back politically.
Some among Ajit Pawar’s loyalists believe the Senior Pawar’s assertions of rebuilding his party are far-fetched given his advancing years and indifferent health. Further, if Ajit Pawar does succeed in consolidating his hold over the party, his uncle will have less than 10 months before the Lok Sabha polls for his public outreach programme.
Yet, there is also a sense of palpable nervousness in the Ajit Pawar camp. Unlike the repeated outbursts against Uddhav Thackeray from the Shinde faction of the Sena, none among the NCP rebels have dared to publicly criticise the Senior Pawar.
“The situation is still very fluid. Wherever the NCP has a base, its supporters still consider Pawar saheb as their leader. Ajit dada, Chhagan Bhujbal, Sunil Tatkare, Dhananjay Munde and others may all have their areas of influence but none of them can match Pawar saheb… if, as he has announced, Pawar saheb starts canvassing against those who have gone with Ajit dada, it will be very difficult for most of us to hold our ground,” an NCP MLA from the Ajit Pawar camp told The Federal.
Also read: Sharad Pawar: Those who betrayed my ideology should not use my photograph
“For now, the best outcome we can hope for is for Pawar saheb and Ajit dada to find some middle ground; we understand his compulsion to not join hands with the BJP because at his age he is worried about his legacy and he also obviously wants Supriya and not Ajit dada to be his heir but he, more than any other politician, also understands practical compulsions of today’s politics,” the MLA added.
‘Pawar had counter strike ready before Ajit’s rebellion’
Sources close to Sharad Pawar claim that he had known of Ajit Pawar’s plans to join hands with the BJP for months and had “after some initial efforts at brokering a truce, given up”. A leader close to the NCP founder told The Federal that anticipating Ajit Pawar’s rebellion, Sharad Pawar had begun chalking out contingency plans some months ago. His decision to ‘resign’ as party chief last month only to take back the decision “under pressure from party colleagues and supporters” was part of this plan. However, what did leave Sharad Pawar a tad surprised was the decision of some leaders, particularly Dilip Walse Patil, which made Ajit Pawar’s betrayal all the more “hurtful”.
Pawar’s decision to later anoint Supriya Sule as the party’s working president alongside Praful Patel, who is now part of Ajit’s rebel group, was ostensibly meant to signal to the NCP cadre that his nephew had lost his confidence and the party must now fully accept Supriya as the heir apparent. Sources said Pawar continued to humour Patel, despite being aware of the latter’s plan to side with Ajit Pawar in the event of a rebellion, and even took him along to the first joint Opposition meeting in Patna on July 23 more as a case of ‘keeping one’s friends close and enemies closer’ than a ploy to win back his loyalty.
A close aide of the Senior Pawar told The Federal that “within 24 hours of Ajit’s rebellion”, the NCP founder had already put in motion “damage control plans”. His decision to aggressively tour the state, particularly constituencies of the rebel leaders, which was announced on Tuesday (July 4), was part of this blueprint.
“He had conveyed this to all the Opposition leaders, including Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and former Congress chiefs Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, who called him to express support after Ajit Pawar’s move… it was then decided that while he will be the face of this outreach, the state-wide tour will have participation of Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena and the Congress leadership to leverage goodwill for the MVA coalition,” the aide told The Federal.
Simultaneously, Pawar, along with Supriya Sule and NCP’s Maharashtra unit chief Jayant Patil, have also decided to keep lines of communication open with all the rebel MLAs, except Ajit Pawar, Patel, Tatkare and the eight newly sworn-in NCP ministers, and with a message that their ‘ghar wapsi’ was still possible.
Anil Deshmukh, senior NCP leader and close aide of the Senior Pawar, told The Federal, “the BJP and those who have gone from our side should not be celebrating… they will soon realise their blunder. The people of Maharashtra hold Pawar saheb in high esteem and they will never tolerate him being humiliated and betrayed in this way. Pawar saheb is not someone who can be intimidated; he will now work with twice the vigour against the BJP not only in Maharashtra but across the country. The BJP will soon regret what it has done”.
