Karnataka: Surveys suggest Congress win, but Modi-Shah could change game

The Congress in Karnataka is finding cheer in internal party surveys for the upcoming Assembly elections; in the BJP unit, on the other hand, there is anxiety. Yet, everything seems to hinge on the last-minute political strategies of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. The duo can turn around the prospects for the parties fighting it out for the 2023 Karnataka polls, it is being said. 

The BJP came to power in Karnataka the last time not because it crossed the magic figure of 113, thanks to a fractured mandate, but because of a case of Operation Lotus — wherein a certain number of Congress and JDS MLAs resigned. However, the man who was responsible for opening the South gates to the BJP was BS Yediyurappa (BSY), who was later shoved out of the CM’s chair because of internal party strife.

Miscalculations and wrong choices

These internal clashes and the COVID pandemic gave the BSY government a negative image. Later, the CM’s mantle was handed over to BSY’s close aide Basavaraj Bommai, again a Lingayat leader. Though the BJP central leadership wanted the party to grow not through an individual face but through collective leadership and the Hindutva agenda, they surrendered to the practicality of state politics, which mainly depends on the charisma of a leader, caste, and community.

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The BJP tried to see Bommai get the blessings of BSY and become the leader of the Lingayat community, whose members have mostly sided with the BJP, as they did with BSY. According to a senior BJP leader, Bommai has more or less failed to become a community leader and not developed good governance skills either, even though he showed early promise. His government has faced several scams, including the PSI recruitment scam, the allegation of 40% commission by the Contractors’ Association, and deleting of voters’ list.

Most importantly, BSY, a mass leader, is fading away from active politics because of his age and the miscalculation of the central BJP leadership in removing him from the CM’s post. Also, no other leader has developed a state-level image like BSY. They have concentrated on castes and communities, including OBCs, SC/STs, Vokkaligas, etc., but this has not yielded much result, said sources.

BJP may not cross 70 seats

BJP sources said internal surveys conducted fortnightly by the party and an external team have not predicted positive results in the 2023 elections for the party. The surveys have reportedly predicted that the BJP won’t cross more than 70 out of 224 seats. 

Also read: Bommai orders probe as Cong accuses Karnataka BJP govt of collecting voters’ data

The same surveys have also reportedly predicted that the Congress has a chance to form the next government. An option for the BJP is the JDS winning more seats at least in the Old Mysuru region, so that it can tie up with that party to form the government. Both the Congress and JDS have strongholds in that region. 

However, the BJP’s plan to get a foothold in the Old Mysuru region in the elections may go wrong. Dividing the Vokkaliga votes may in fact help the Congress, as it also has huge AHINDA (Minority, Backward class, and Dalit) vote bank.

But helping the JDS is BJP’s only chance, as it helps the former grow. But the BJP must have an unofficial pre-poll pact with the JDS. Yet, trusting the JDS will also not be a good move, as the regional party would always look for an opportunity to come to power with the BJP’s or Congress’s support, if a hung assembly is created. However, the surveys are not predicting a hung assembly, the sources added.

Congress’s positive turn

The monthly surveys done by the Congress are reportedly favourable for the time being. According to the sources, the surveys have predicted that the party will cross 120 seats, with the number reaching up to 135.

Overall, there is hope for the grand old party because of the anti-incumbency factor, the series of scams that ruined the Bommai government’s image, and the strong leadership in the state Congress in the form of Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar. The Dalit votes are being consolidated thanks to the efforts of former KPCC chief G Parameshwara and other leaders. 

The important thing is that Dalit leader M Mallikarjun Kharge has got the AICC chief’s post. He will also work towards consolidating Dalit votes.

Also read: Karnataka PSI recruitment scam spreads tentacles to Punjab, Telangana

However, the Congress has only one worry — the last-minute poll strategies of Modi-Shah — as it cannot predict the effects. According to sources, the state government’s intelligence reports point to a Congress win this time. Another challenge before the Congress is for its leaders to remain united and support each other when any allegations or accusations come from the BJP and the JDS.

New faces in BJP?

The sources said the BJP is planning to experiment with the state unit, as the central leadership is rather wary of the existing set-up. It is willing to onboard new faces as an experiment.

The idea is to bring fresh faces originating from the RSS and groom them into future leaders. The Gujarat model, in which the party changed several existing faces and gave tickets to new ones, succeeded in the recent election. However, the situations in Gujarat and Karnataka are vastly different.

But there is reportedly talk in the party of giving at least 20% tickets to newbies and drop leaders such as KS Eshwarappa and Suresh Kumar. At the same time, there is talk of not giving tickets to “poached” leaders, as they are not much into BJP ideology. However, the chance of that experiment succeeding is also slim, as the surveys reportedly predict greater winning chances of the poached MLAs.

Also read: Karnataka-Maharashtra border row: Why BJP could gain politically in both states

Another BJP consideration is reportedly to give more responsibilities to the leaders who compete for better posts in the party and ministerial berths in the government to help the new faces win and help the party grow. Such names include R Ashok and CN Ashwath Narayana. However, the surveys are making the party think twice before taking any decisions, the sources added.