Why Karnataka win failed to enthuse Congress in Andhra Pradesh

The stunning win of the Congress in the Karnataka Assembly elections has come as a major boost to the party in Telangana that it is now a real challenger to the ruling BRS in the upcoming Assembly polls in December.

But it is not the same in the neighbouring Telugu state, Andhra Pradesh. It is this part of Andhra that had once produced as many as seven chief ministers for the Congress between 1956 when combined Andhra Pradesh was formed, and 2014, when the state was bifurcated to create Telangana. Now the party has almost disappeared. All those leaders who enjoyed power during heydays of Congress either left or fell silent. The biggest task before the party is to find candidates for all constituencies and ensure that they do not lose deposits in the elections.

Talks in political circles are that YS Sharmila, sister of chief minister YS Jaganmohan Reddy will join the party and give it a new lease of life. “Sharmila will merge her ‘YSR Telangana’ party with Congress and lead the party in Andhra Pradesh. She is the only hope,” a general secretary of the Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) said. Such is the hopelessness of the AP Congress.

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No takers for PCC chief’s post

Congress sources said when the party wanted to appoint PCC president in 2022 there was no leader available to take up the responsibility. Former chief minister N Kirankumar Reddy declined to lead the party. Former Union minister MM Pallamraju was not enthusiastic. A few leaders reportedly refused the offer on the pretext that they didn’t have money to run the party. So finally, the mantle fell on a loyal party worker, 54-year-old Gidugu Rudraraju, a former Brahmin MLC who lacks both money and muscle power, which are the basic requirements to survive in Andhra Politics.

While Kirankumar Reddy joined the BJP, many senior leaders, who did not want to defect to other parties, became inactive. Leaders seldom visit the party headquarters, Andhra Ratna Bhavan, in Vijayawada. A senior leader said he works from home. This situation is the fallout of the decision to divide the state to create Telangana by the party’s high command against the wishes of the people here.

The people’s anger was so intense in the region, the party garnered less than 1 per cent of votes in 2019 elections, a fall from 50.40 per cent in 2004 and 40.70 per cent in 2009. In the very first election held in 2014 after the announcement of Telangana, the party suffered a rout with just 2.8 per cent vote share.

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Following the loss of deposits in 175 constituencies in two elections, the then PCC president Raghuvira Reddy chose to retire from active politics. Now events like Rahul Gandhi’s visit to the state are like festive occasions for the party when active and inactive leaders assemble to shake hands with him. Thinking of the revival of the party against this backdrop is nothing but a pipe dream.

Where has Congress vote bank gone

According to party general secretary Kolankukonda Sivaji, the Congress’ vote bank had migrated to YSR Congress led by YS Jaganmohan Reddy, son of late chief minister YS Rajasekhar Reddy.

“In 2014 people favoured TDP as they thought Chandrababu Naidu as a good administrator would repair the damage done to the state which was in the throes of division. But he failed. So, in 2019, people favoured YS Jagan and the entire Congress vote went to YSR Congress which won 151 seats out of 175 with a vote share of 50 per cent,” he said.

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Is a revival possible?

PCC president Rudraraju said he is hopeful as the people of the state were disappointed with TDP and YSR Congress governments and are craving a change. “They could not deliver on the assurances like special category status to Andhra Pradesh, Railway zone for Visakhapatnam even though they were in PM Narendra Modi’s good books. The anger on Congress is no longer there and people are realising that Congress is far better. There were instances in history where Congress re-emerged after a major setback,” Rudraraju said.

But, noted political scientist Prof E Venkateshu of Hyderabad Central University says a revival is impossible as the party’s base has got completely eroded in the state.

“Assurances and announcements of more welfare schemes work only when there is critical mass in the party and voters think Congress’ return at the Centre is about to happen. Mere winning a state or two may not help the party in AP like situation. This may help improve its vote share by a little 2 or 3 per cent, which makes no difference,” Prof Venkateshu, an expert in Telugu politics, opined.

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On the other hand, PCC working President Dr. N Tulasi Reddy said everything depends on how Congress fares in the upcoming elections in four states. “If Congress wins three of the four states, it would transform the situation in AP in favour of the party. It will have a ripple effect at the national level as well. Then, all leaders who left the party to join BJP or TDP would come back. Senior leaders who have fallen silent would become active. Even Sharmila may join the party and shift base to Andhra Pradesh. The Assembly elections in Telangana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh are crucial for the revival of Congress in Andhra Pradesh,” Dr Reddy said.