Nitish’s PM ambition could lead to new political equation in Bihar

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has opened up the possibilities of a political realignment in the state by apparently reviving his dream to become the Prime Minister.

RJD chief Lalu Prasad lends credence to the speculation over the new political equation in the state as he nodded in agreement when a media person recently asked in Delhi whether Nitish “occupies a place in his heart”.

“Relations keep building and breaking, Nitish and I have worked together,” he remarked.

Earlier, Lalu’s son and leader of Opposition in the Bihar Assembly Tejashwi Yadav, accompanied by his elder brother and MLA Tej Pratap Yadav and other RJD leaders, had met Nitish on the issue of caste census.

On the other hand, Nitish, much to the discomfiture of BJP, has started taking divergent views on issues such as the Pegasus snooping row, caste data and the population control policy. Nitish has also written to Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking his time to discuss the caste census.

It is not the first time Nitish has differed with his coalition partners in the state. In 2012, Nitish’s party, the JD-U, had supported the candidature of Pranab Mukherjee in the presidential election even when he (Nitish) was very much in the NDA. Nitish, however, pulled out of the NDA in 2013 by objecting to the projection of Narendra Modi as a prime ministerial candidate for the 2014 Lok Sabha election.

Also read: By inducting Paras, BJP shows intention to dominate Bihar politics

The JD-U in 2017 wanted a second term for Mukherjee, but when the latter showed no interest in it, the party backed NDA candidate Ram Nath Kovind in June 2017. The JD-U was a part of the grand alliance in power in Bihar at that time, yet Nitish as Chief Minister supported Kovind’s candidature. Nearly a month later, Nitish walked out of the grand alliance by saying that Tejashwi Yadav, then deputy chief minister, did not reply in public on the corruption charges leveled against him.

If Nitish’s track record is any indication, there will be no surprise if he quits NDA again to return to the grand alliance. Nitish needs either BJP or RJD to remain a political force in Bihar and will join the grand alliance only when he is confident that it will help him fulfill his PM dream, remarked a political analyst.

In the past, Lalu’s two sons — Tej Pratap Yadav and Tejashwi — have ruled out the possibility of a return of Nitish to the grand alliance. But the situation has now changed with Lalu being out on bail in the fodder scam. As Lalu is a ‘free man’, he has started taking interest in reviving his old contacts and has met several senior politicians, including Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav, Sharad Yadav and also Sharad Pawar. It is now a big question whether Nitish would show his interest in re-joining the grand alliance and whether Lalu would make it possible by persuading his sons to agree to the prospect.

Also read: BJP ally demands caste census, separate ministry for OBC

Some analysts say that Nitish is only trying to reassert his position by not remaining on the same page with BJP on certain issues. The JD-U was relegated to the third position in the last assembly election.

To make up for the electoral setback, Nitish inducted prominent Kushwaha leader, Upendra Kushwaha, into the party. Kushwarha merged his party, the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP), with the JD-U to complete the formality.

Similarly, Nitish has made Rajiv Ranjan Singh aka Lalan Singh, a prominent leader from Bhumihar caste (a politically influential upper caste), president of the JD-U. It will surely help Nitish to woo Bhumihar voters, who have so far voted overwhelmingly in BJP support. Lalan Singh was given a rousing reception by JD-U workers and leaders on his arrival in Patna recently.

CM’s chair for Tejashwi?

Kushwaha, who is the JD-U’s parliamentary board chairman, gave rise to the speculation over Nitish’s PM ambition by calling him a PM material.

Kushwaha made his comment before Nitish met Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) chief Om Prakash Chautala in Delhi. Even though Nitish claimed that the meeting was not political, Chautala said they discussed the larger plan to form a third front of opposition parties, barring the Congress, at the national level.

Nitish also sought to downplay Kushwaha’s statement. “There’s nothing like this. Why should I be (a PM material)? I am not interested in all these things,” said Nitish.

Also read: Join ‘existential fight’ against Golwalkar’s ideas, Tejashwi tells Chirag

There is also a possibility of some sort of bargaining — Tejashwi becoming the chief minister as RJD extends its full support to Nitish for playing a bigger role at the national level, commented a political observer Kamal Kant Sahay.

But it is too early to predict anything at this stage as all parties are presently in ‘wait and watch’ mood, he added. Anyway, there is only a slim chance of Nitish joining hands with RJD unless he is sure that it will help him fulfill his PM dream.

Bihar headed for mid-term polls?

Differences between the BJP and JD (U) on certain issues are acute, but it is difficult to say whether it would eventually lead to mid-term polls.

Bihar minister and BJP leader Samrat Choudhary has said that the party accepted Nitish Kumar as the chief minister despite the JD-U having 43 seats in the assembly election against his party’s tally of 74.

“Running a coalition government in Bihar is a challenging task as the NDA comprises four political parties with all having divergent ideologies. In such circumstances, we have to tolerate a lot of things,” he remarked, inviting a sharp reaction from the JD-U.

In response to Choudhary’s statement, JD-U spokesperson Suheli Mehta said: “There is no problem in running the government. Only you (Chaudhary) are desperate. If you think Nitish Kumar is the CM because of compulsion, why don’t you ask your party to make you Bihar’s CM since you are the tallest leader of your party in the state?”

Senior journalist Mithilesh Kumar says he does not see any possibility of mid-term polls in the state.

“What exactly Nitish will achieve by imposing a mid-term poll in the state? Even if Nitish walks out of the NDA, he will try to form a new government in alliance with the RJD,” he remarked.

Has BJP irked Nitish?

It shouldn’t be less than a rude shock for Nitish when the government announced in the Lok Sabha that it has decided as a matter of policy not to enumerate caste-wise population other than SCs and STs in the census.

The Bihar Assembly had passed a unanimous resolution in favour of a caste-based census in 2019 and again in 2020 when Nitish was CM.

Nitish has written to Prime Minister Modi seeking his time so that an all-party delegation from the state could meet him and discuss the census data.

A delegation of JD-U MPs, led by party president Lalan Singh, has also met Home Minister Amit Shah on the issue of caste-based census.

A political analyst said it has to be seen how much time Modi takes to respond to Nitish’s letter as the BJP is apparently in no mood to oblige him this time. At this stage, the BJP, after emerging as a bigger party in the state polls, will not acquiesce to Nitish’s demand beyond a point, particularly if it is diametrically opposite to its agenda, said a BJP leader.

In February 2020, the Bihar assembly had passed a unanimous resolution against National Register of Citizens (NRC) as even BJP MLAs voted in favour of the resolution.

But the situation was different then as the BJP did not want any confrontation with the JD-U when the assembly elections were only a few months away, the leader remarked.