Nitish may walk out of NDA as trust deficit with BJP widens

Bihar may witness yet another political realignment as Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is apparently peeved with his ally on various issues. Key among them is the BJP’s attempt to dent his position as supreme leader of the NDA in the state and impose its decisions on the party.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah had remarked that the BJP would contest the 2024 Lok Sabha election and 2025 Bihar Assembly election with its allies, and the JD(U)’s top leadership apparently took it as an affront to the party, questioning the ‘merit’ of Shah`s statement itself.

“Why should there be any discussion on it when there is no guarantee what happens to me tomorrow,” JD(U) president Rajiv Ranjan Singh, aka Lalan Singh, had remarked wryly. It only showed how the JD(U) was annoyed over Shah ‘using his own discretion’ on what the BJP would do in future elections.

Talks with Sonia

The speculation over the JD(U) re-joining the opposition-led Grand Alliance in Bihar became more intense after Nitish talked to Congress president Sonia Gandhi. Although it is not officially known what was discussed in the telephonic conversation, the possibility of Nitish discussing the present political situation with Sonia cannot be completely ruled out. He has  asked Sonia for time on August 11.

Also Read: Maelstrom in Bihar as JD(U), RJD rally MLAs; Nitish asks Sonia for time on Aug 11

Lalan Singh’s remark that his party would not join the Union cabinet is also seen as a pointer to the fact that not everything is well in the NDA.

Nitish will hold a meeting with his party MPs and MLAs and MLCs on Tuesday and ask them to stay put in state capital Patna till Wednesday, giving credence to the speculation over a political realignment in Bihar. Similarly, the RJD and Congress are set to hold meetings of their respective MPs and MLAs on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, former Bihar CM Jitan Ram Manjhi is convening a meeting of MPs and MLAs of his party, the Hindustani Awarm Morcha (HAM), and has said the HAM would extend its support to Nitish whatever decision the latter takes.

On the other hand, JD(U) MP Ramprit Mandal created a flutter by saying, “Anything can happen anytime. Top leaders have to take a final call on it.”

Amid the possibility of Nitish returning to the Grand Alliance, Bihar RJD president Jagdanand Singh sought to downplay the issue, saying his party had not extended any invitation to the JD(U). He said his party is ready for any eventuality and even prepared for mid-term polls.

Also read: Souring BJP-JD(U) ties might lead to realignments in Bihar politics

Senior RJD leader Shivanand Tiwari said: “My party will welcome Nitish if he quits the NDA. The RJD will support him in forming the next government.”

Far from cordial

Nitish’s relationship was not cordial with the BJP in his present term as CM, as his party was relegated to the third position with 43 seats even as the saffron party was also slowly trying to  impose a ‘Hindutva and nationalism’ agenda rather aggressively. 

The BJP had bagged 74 seats in the election even as its strength improved to 77 in the Assembly after  three MLAs from Mueksh Sahni`s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) joined it. The RJD is presently the largest party in the state with 80 MLAs. The Bihar Assembly has a total strength of 243 MLAs and any party or alliance needs the support of 122 MLAs to form a  government. The Congress has 19 MLAs while the Left parties, also part of the Grand Alliance, have 16 MLAs.

So, if Nitish returns to the RJD-Congress-Left alliance, it will have 160 MLAs (45 of JD(U), 80 of RJD, 19 of Congress and 16 of Left parties) against the majority mark of 122. Additionally, the RJD is also reaching out to the HAM, a BJP ally with four MLAs.

It does not undermine the fact that Nitish’s patience with the BJP is running out due to various factors but, more recently, differences between both the parties cropped up crucial issue such as a ban on the Islamist radical organisation, the Popular Front of India (PFI).

Senior BJP leaders like minister Jivesh Mishra, former Deputy CM and party MP Sushil Kumar Modi and state BJP president Sanjay Jaiswal were demanding a ban on the organisation following the busting of a sleeper module in Phulwarisharif in Patna. 

But on the other hand, Bihar Minority Affairs Minister and senior JD(U) leader Jama Khan said that an organisation could not be banned on the assumption of some people. He said, “The action will be taken against the organisation only after its involvement in anti-national activities is  proved by law and enforcing agencies and courts.”

Also read: You are all alive because of PM Modi: Bihar minister asserts in viral video

Why Nitish is unhappy

Nitish is also reportedly not very happy over the way Bihar is being projected as a hub of anti-national activities by the NIA and other central agencies.

The CM is also apparently unhappy with Bihar Assembly Speaker Vijay Kumar Sinha, a BJP leader, over his ‘inept handling’ of the Assembly`s centenary celebrations on July 12. Nitish’s name was missing from the invitation card.

The function was attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who heaped praise on Nitish for ensuring 50 per cent reservation for women in Panchayats. In the meeting, Modi had even gone to the extent of saying the CM belonged to a pantheon of great Bihar leaders such as former CMs Dr Srikrishna Singh and Karpoori Thakur, and revolutionary leader Jayaprakash Narayan.

But it did not work so well as it was presumed as Nitish was also unhappy with state BJP leaders attacking him time and again. Jaiswal and Lalan Singh had virtually crossed swords after the former`s house, as also the residence of Deputy CM Renu Devi and BJP offices, were attacked during the anti-Agnipath protests in the state.

Conspicuously absent

Nitish also expressed his annoyance with the BJP by skipping four central meetings within a month since July 17. He had stayed away from a dinner hosted by Modi for outgoing President Ram Nath Kovind and also the swearing-in ceremony of President Droupadi Murmu. 

On Sunday, he did not attend the NITI Aayog’s 7th Governing Council meeting, the first in-person meeting since July 2019. He had also skipped a meeting of chief ministers called by Amit Shah and instead sent his deputy. Shah had called the meeting in connection with the Har Ghar Tiranga programme.

Also read: Amid talk of rift with BJP, Nitish calls meeting of JD(U) legislators

The situation, however, reached a flash point when the JD(U) ‘smelt’ a conspiracy hatched against Nitish for the second time, and Lalan Singh indirectly accused the BJP of masterminding these conspiracies.

Lalan Singh had said that earlier the Chirag (Paswan) model was used and now the RCP model was at work to weaken Nitish. He said the conspiracy was disclosed at the right time and it was stopped from being executed.

Chirag Paswan, the LJP (Ram Vilas) leader, fielded his party candidates against JD(U)  candidates in the 2020 Assembly election, thus cutting into the latter’s vote bank. The JD(U)’s electoral prospects were damaged in at least 25 seats in the process. Several JD(U) leaders claim that Chirag did it at the behest of the BJP.

Similarly, RCP Singh had joined the Union Cabinet last year without taking the consent of Nitish. He claimed that Shah had told him that the BJP wanted only him to join the government and subsequently informed Nitish about it and took his permission. 

Lalan Singh, however, shot back, asking if the BJP would decide who would join the Union Cabinet from his party. RCP, a former IAS officer, faces probes into the acquisition of land worth crores in his native Nalanda district in the names of his wife and daughters.

Political observers even claim that senior JD(U) leaders and even Nitish are apprehensive about the BJP trying to split their party.

Tough path

Nitish may not find it so easy to return to the Grand Alliance  again, as he did not have a very good experience with the RJD when he had formed the alliance government in 2015. He walked out of the Grand Aliance in 2017 as corruption charges were levelled against RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav in the IRCTC case. It is also alleged that Lalu Prasad was interfering too much in the government, annoying Nitish in the process.

Also read: Love-hate relationship between JD(U) and BJP at its zenith

The Opposition even dragged Nitish’s name in the multi-billion Srijan scam and, if he dumps the NDA,  the Central agencies may also start ‘hounding’ him, it is feared. This despite there being no trace of proof against him so far. 

The Srijan scam, involving the plundering of nearly Rs 1,000 crore of public funds with the complicity of government and bank officials and representatives, is presently being investigated by the CBI.

National ambition

Nitish is apparently harbouring the ambition of becoming the Prime Minister one day. Even Sushil Kumar Modi once called him ‘PM material’. In the Opposition camp, too, Nitish is seen as a leader who has the potential to challenge Narendra Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha election despite his political flip-flops.

Senior Congress leader Malliarjun Kharge said: “Nitish was with us earlier too. I am not aware of current political developments in Bihar but it would be nice if he comes with us.”

The BJP, meanwhile, is preparing its ground in Bihar. Ahead of its national meet of frontal organisations, around 700 office bearers from across the country spent two days in 200 out of 243 Bihar assembly constituencies.

During their stay, the leaders took feedback from common people about the implementation of Central sponsored schemes and the Nitish government’s performance. They also gathered information about the BJP’s organisational strength in these constituencies.

BJP leaders sought to play it down, saying that such a contact campaign was carried out in Telangana too before the party`s conclave in Hyderabad. Lalan Singh caustically asked why BJP was preparing  for only 200 seats and not 243 seats.