Lucky for now, Rishi Sunak bound to feel the pinch after Boris Johnson’s exit

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak must be counting his blessings. The man tipped to be his successor has been felled by his own lies. Indian-origin Sunak will now in all likelihood remain as prime minister for this term and lead the Conservative Party into the next general election scheduled for the summer of 2024.

The Privileges Committee looking into the ‘Partygate’ scandal has unanimously found former Prime Minister Boris Johnson guilty of lying to parliament, forcing him to resign as MP. Even as the country was locked down in COVID-19 restrictions with ordinary people unable to say goodbye to their loved ones as they lay dying in hospitals, Johnson was breaking his own rules and partying in Downing Street.

Once caught on camera and questioned in the House of Commons, Johnson committed the ultimate sin and ‘misled’ (a parliamentary term for lying) parliament.

The committee’s verdict had left Johnson with little choice. Either he could resign or suffer the humiliation of a suspension from parliament and a House of Commons vote in which the majority of MPs would have accepted the committee’s recommendation. Hence, Johnson decided to jump rather than bear the shame of being pushed out of parliament.

Refusing to take the blame for any of his misdeeds, Johnson was all defiance, making out that the committee was dishonest. “I did not lie and I believe that in their hearts the committee know it,” he announced in his blistering resignation statement.

Much like his pal Donald Trump across the pond, who has been indicted on various counts, Johnson lacked contrition calling the investigation a “witch-hunt”. He accused the committee, which is dominated by Tory MPs but is chaired by a Labour leader, of showing “egregious bias” against him with the sole aim to “drive him out of parliament”.

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Johnson’s ire

Moreover, Johnson tore into friend-turned-foe Sunak as having failed on Brexit – Johnson’s pet project – and drifting away from core Conservative Party values. Johnson’s statement was virtually a declaration of war on Sunak as leader of the Tories. He seized on grassroots concerns and warned Tories that after winning the biggest majority in almost half a century in 2019, this majority was now at risk thanks to Sunak.

There was every expectation that if the Privileges Committee exonerated him, then Johnson would certainly make a play to dethrone Sunak from 10 Downing Street, and he would have succeeded. The reason was simple. Johnson, a seasoned politician, is a much better vote-catcher for the Conservative Party than the accidental prime minister Sunak could ever be, an essential qualification for a party leader hurtling into a general election next year.

In a “coordinated attack”, immediately after Johnson announced his resignation, two of his close allies, Nadine Dorries and Nigel Adams, too said they were stepping down from their parliamentary seats triggering three by-elections. The Johnson camp claim there are more MP resignations in the offing.

The by-elections will be a litmus test for Sunak’s popularity, whether he is capable of winning elections for the Tories. Johnson and his friends are hoping he will fail.

Sunak is already struggling to unite the splintering Conservative party and stem the rising panic among Red Wall MPs – former Labour pocket boroughs in North England – who owe their seats to Johnson’s landslide victory in 2019. Alluding to opinion polls which put Labour in a massive lead ahead of the Tories for the general election, Johnson claims that he alone can save the Conservative Party from a disaster at the polls next year.

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Tory MPs

Johnson’s claim is based on the 14 million people who voted for him in 2019. His charisma and unique style of politics won over voters in seats that had not had Conservative MPs for generations and these victories were historic. Many Tory MPs did not like Johnson but it was his popular appeal that made them turn to him time and again. He had a bond with the electorate that no other politician, certainly not Sunak, could quite muster.

However, recently Johnson has been losing public support. An opinion poll asked people whether they thought he should resign if the Privileges Committee ruled against him and some 69 per cent said he should. While this is good news for opposition parties, it does not bode well for the Tories.

Even so Johnson remains a formidable campaigner in Red Wall seats and he kept reminding Sunak that it would be safer for him to keep the former prime minister on his side rather than risk him turning against Downing Street. Johnson had expected Sunak to speak up for him publicly during the Partygate investigation, particularly as he was Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time and lived and worked in Downing Street, but the prime minister didn’t show the necessary support.

Having been driven out of Parliament by MPs, Johnson may now prove to be free and even more dangerous. His supporters call Sunak “dead man walking” and threaten that Johnson has the potential to topple the prime minister even now by spearheading a new “true Conservative” entity, which would have the backing of grassroots members who did not vote Sunak in as Tory Party leader. It would also have the backing of Red Wall MPs who realise that without Johnson at the helm of the party, it is impossible for them to retain their seats.

Disadvantage Sunak

So, in the short term, Johnson’s resignation may have bolstered Sunak’s leadership with the majority of Conservative MPs certain to rally around him. He has also secured his place as the prime minister who will lead the Tories into the general election. This had not been guaranteed as MPs were allowed to submit letters of no confidence from October this year at the end of his one-year grace period. But with Johnson gone, there is no obvious candidate likely to want to replace Sunak.

However, in the longer term, Johnson’s exit makes it even harder for Sunak to return as prime minister after the election as a Tory defeat at the polls now feels definite.

(Sajeda Momin has held senior positions in Indian newspapers and now divides her time between Kolkata and London) 

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