Bid on former PM Imran Khan’s life reflects deep flaw in Pak ruling hierarchy

If it eventually turns out that the subterranean fight among Pakistan’s key institutions — government, judiciary and the military (including the ISI) — was behind the attack against former prime minister Imran Khan, few will be surprised.

Over the years, the military in particular has become the institution that controls the levers of power in Pakistan – with or without the help of the judiciary and the intelligence wing, the ISI.

Watch: Power struggle between Imran, Pak govt, military spills out into the open

Take the latest instance. Circumstantial reasons and the motive behind the attack on Imran Khan point to the deep state, and the military in particular.

Attack on Imran

On Thursday, as Imran Khan’s “long march” to Islamabad was winding its way through Gujranwala province, a lone attacker (some witnesses say two) fired on the entourage, targeting the former prime minister. He escaped with an injury to his leg, but an aide was killed and a few others were injured.

The attack, 15 years after the assassination of another former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, has clarified one thing for those who may have thought that Pakistan was stabilising under civilian democratic rule. It is clear now that the civilian rule is just a facade. Behind it is the real power in the hands of state institutions, including the military, judiciary and the intelligence wing, ISI.

Imran’s ties with military

Khan himself is a creature of the military and became prime minister after the 2018 elections with its support. Some even described him as the “stooge” of the military.   But once in power, Imran did not keep to his side of the bargain with the result that when the motion of no-confidence was moved against him in the National Assembly, the military did not come to bail him out.

He vainly attempted to resist by dissolving the Assembly. But the judiciary (another powerful state institution opposed to Imran Khan) negated his decision. Khan ended up becoming the first Pakistani prime minister to have been ejected from office due to a no-confidence motion.

The pro-military establishment and the new government of the Pakistan, Muslim League (PML) headed by Shehbaz Sharif, brother of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, did not expect Imran Khan to raise his head for some time. Contrary to their expectations, after a brief hiatus, Imran Khan started gaining in popularity until he reached a point where he started to covet the post of prime minister once again. The ongoing yatra to Islamabad was expected to conclude nearer to the elections next year.

Also read: Pak ex-PM Imran admits he offered extension to Army chief Bajwa

If Imran Khan was close to the military and reached the top echelons of power, becoming prime minister, it was equally predictable that he had to fall out with the powerful institution. For, that has been Pakistan’s history where power equations are akin to shifting sands in a desert.

A history of coups

The most dramatic of these occurred in 1999 when then prime minister Nawaz Sharif attempted to prevent his airborne military chief, General Pervez Musharraf, from landing in Karachi. Sharif ordered that the air traffic controllers not give permission to Musharraf’s aircraft to land. That was the result of a contentious relationship between the two in the preceding few months. The plane was in danger of crashing as it was running out of fuel. At the last moment, it was allowed to land.

In a matter of hours, Musharraf deposed Sharif in a coup. The army chief took over as head of state. He retained his position as the chief of the military until he stepped down in 2007.

In another instance, Benazir Bhutto, who was in exile in Dubai, struck a power-sharing deal with Musharraf to return to Pakistan. This included the possibility to contest elections too, scheduled in 2008. Musharraf agreed to the deal under pressure from the United States which was keen on seeing civilian rule return to Pakistan. At this time, both the former civilian prime ministers, Benazir and Nawaz Sharif, were in exile, facing charges of corruption at home. Musharraf dropped the charges against Benazir, enabling her to return.

Apparently, it was a half-hearted deal. Benazir took the risk and returned to Pakistan, but with all the electoral cards in her favour. Minutes after she arrived in Pakistan and her entourage was on the way home, she and her entourage were attacked leading to the deaths of around 200 people. Benazir escaped only to die in an assassination a couple of months later. Musharraf was later implicated in the killing.

Clearly, the military did not want the return of Benazir as prime minister at the risk of diluting its own hold over power.

Battle of attrition

Fast forwarding to the present, it was again a similar battle of attrition that was witnessed between Imran Khan and the military in the weeks preceding his ouster as prime minister. The chief of the army staff, Qamar Javed Bajwa, and Khan fell out over Lt Gen Faiz Hameed’s position as Director-General of the intelligence wing, ISI.

The military proposed Lt Gen Nadeem Ahmed Anjum, which was opposed by Imran Khan. By taking this position, the former prime minister willy-nilly dug his own grave. It may be recalled that when Benazir Bhutto was prime minister years earlier, she similarly differed with the military on the choice of the ISI chief leading to her deposition from power.

Pakistan’s politics and its inter-institutional relationship is replete with such differences and break downs. In almost all cases, the civilian leadership has had to pay the price by being removed from power either in coups or by other means.

Also read: Pakistan’s supreme court asks ex-PM Imran Khan to explain violation of courts order

In the case of Imran Khan, despite being removed by a no-confidence motion, he continues to be a growing threat as he has taken positions that conflict with the military’s view. In other words, he is no longer the Imran Khan of 2018 who was willing to play ball and is now trying to chart an independent course for himself.   Not a surprise then that he became the target of an assassination.