AAP packs the punch, but chinks in its armour are evident

Almost 10 years earlier, a motley group of activists and civil society members, led by Arvind Kejriwal, launched the Aam Aadmi Party on November 26, 2012. A few weeks prior to this, on October 2, a day chosen for its symbolism, these members of the ‘India Against Corruption’ movement had declared intentions to form a political party. Constitution Day was not officially celebrated at that time, but these two events were selected to establish a symbiotic link with the Father of the Nation and the Constitutional principles of India.

A decade later, after the results from Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh have been declared, the AAP has earned the right to be categorised by the Election Commission of India as a ‘National Party’. As is known, among various criteria to qualify, a national party must poll more than 6 per cent of the vote share in Assembly elections of four or more states. With the AAP crossing this mark in Delhi, Punjab, Gujarat and Goa, it has claimed to have fulfilled the criteria to become a national party.

What lies ahead?

The question now is whether, after acquiring such a tag, will the party actually become a national one in terms of its political reach and influence, or will it too politically fade and remain inconsequential despite the national party tag? The declaration by the party about its new-found status appeared paradoxical for a group that, in its initial days, was committed to political transformation and intent on certification from the people and not from official agencies.

Also read: AAP now a national party despite poor show in Gujarat, HP; what this means

But obviously, the AAP has its eyes on ‘benefits’ of that name-tag — land or building from the government to establish their party office, the right to have up to 40 star campaigners as against 20 for others (this is important because expenditure incurred on the travelling and other expenses of star campaigners is not included in the election expenditure of the party candidate), time slots on the national and state television besides radio to broadcast messages to voters and, most importantly, a unique party symbol which cannot be used by any party in the entire country.

Leaving this aside for the moment — for the ECI shall in coming weeks take up the matter — its performance in this round of polls needs to be assessed to determine if the AAP has truly embarked on the road that its victory in Punjab earlier this year pointed to.

MCD results, a cause for worry

Let us begin with the results of the Municipal Council of Delhi, the political ‘home’ of the state where the party made its maiden foray into electoral politics. The verdict should worry the AAP leadership as its performance in the Indian capital has been underwhelming and, despite winning 134 seats in a 250-member House to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s 104, the AAP cannot be certain of getting its mayoral candidate elected.

The anti-defection law does not apply to municipal committees and the BJP’s deep-pocket department may well ensure that the balance tilts in favour of the saffron party. Further, there are worries for the AAP even though the party has registered an increase in vote share from 26.2 per cent in the 2017 MCD polls to 42.1 per cent now.

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In March this year, after the AAP romped to power in Punjab with an astonishing victory, this writer wrote an article on this website that was aptly headlined – ‘What next for AAP? Kejriwal must be more than Modi’s ‘benign’ version’. But the party did not take a stand on the primary issue that the BJP or the prime minister ignored – insecurity among minorities, especially Muslims and Christians. The result is visible: Kejriwal’s strategic silence on the release of Bilkis Bano’s rape convicts, nomination to the daughter of Naroda Patiya convict, Amit Shah’s ‘taught a lesson’ barb, anti-CAA protests, and belated reaction to 2020 Delhi riots had not been endorsed by voters.

Data analysis demonstrates that Muslim voters in riots-affected areas of north-east Delhi largely voted for the Congress. Of the nine seats the Congress won, seven were in riot-hit areas in north-east and south-west Delhi. Six of these seven segments are Muslim-dominated. Although the AAP won seats in several wards with a significant Muslim voter presence, the drift away from the party in constituencies in the new settlements is significant. This would have been an electorally justified tactic if it had reaped benefits in Gujarat, but the verdict shows that it has not been able to make immediate gains, although the door has been knocked by the party for the long term. There is no doubt that the party’s performance in Gujarat -– 5 seats and 12.92 per cent vote share -– is not a very impressive performance, mainly because the party failed to match the expectations it raised.

Also read: AAP calls its Gujarat show impressive; results suggest it played spoilsport

High expectations, low performance

Given the highly visible campaign the party mounted in Gujarat and the impact it had on media reports, it appeared that the AAP had the potential to at least dislodge the Congress as the principal challenger to the BJP. A solid performance was expected to pave the way for the AAP to further challenge the Congress in states where it is locked in direct combat with the BJP. Elections are due in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in the winter of 2023 and all these states are bipolar, with BJP and Congress being the main contestants. If AAP had bettered the Congress in Gujarat, it could have paved the way for the AAP to take a pole position in some parts of these states. Kejriwal may still decide to take a shot in a limited way in Rajasthan, but this would not have the same impact if he had entered the fray from a position of greater strength.

With a vote share of almost 13 per cent, the AAP has certainly announced its arrival in Gujarat. But in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, this may not be sufficient against the potential BJP campaign of Modi’s third consecutive term to match Jawaharlal Nehru’s. In the short run, much would depend on whether the Congress is able to regain the vote share it lost in Gujarat and get its act together in the three aforementioned states and Karnataka where Assembly polls are due next year. The AAP leadership also has to decide if it wishes to challenge the BJP from its political polarity or present an alternate ideology.

(The writer is an NCR-based author and journalist. His latest book is The Demolition and the Verdict: Ayodhya and the Project to Reconfigure India. His other books include, The RSS: Icons of the Indian Right and Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times. He tweets at @NilanjanUdwin)

(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal)