Why Modi govt may go for a Cabinet reshuffle

The exit of Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi and RCP Singh from the Union cabinet earlier this week and the coming together of the steadily growing rebel faction of the Shiv Sena and the BJP in Maharashtra has triggered talks of an impending reshuffle of the Union council of ministers.

Though there is no official confirmation of a cabinet expansion yet, sources say Prime Minister Narendra Modi has started summoning performance reports of his ministers. The expected cabinet rejig, the second since the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance coalition returned to power in May 2019, could take place after the conclusion of the forthcoming monsoon session of Parliament, which is scheduled between July 18 and August 12.

On July 6, following their resignations from the Union cabinet, additional charge of the minority affairs portfolio held by Naqvi and the steel ministry helmed by Singh was assigned by President Ramnath Kovind, on the advice of the PM, to Smriti Irani and Jyotiraditya Scindia respectively.

Sources in the government told The Federal that a few key political developments made the cabinet reshuffle imminent.

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With Eknath Shinde’s camp of ‘rebel’ Shiv Sena lawmakers dislodging the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government earlier this month with the help of the BJP, sources said the new Maharashtra chief minister and the saffron party are trying to create a split among the Shiv Sena’s Members of Parliament too. Breaking Sena MPs (as well as councillors and party office-bearers) away from Thackeray is essential for Shinde to prove a split in the party as per the anti-defection law – failing this Shinde will either be compelled to merge his faction with the BJP or accept Thackeray’s leadership of the party and inevitably forfeit his claim to the CM’s chair.

As such, Modi may accommodate some Sena MPs willing to break ranks with Thackeray in the Union council of ministers. Though petitions variously seek disqualification as MLAs or stay on disqualification as MLAs filed by the rival Sena camps in the Supreme Court are awaiting final adjudication, sources say these are unlikely to have a bearing on Modi’s induction of some Sena MPs into the cabinet at least in the short term.

With the exit of RCP Singh from the cabinet and the BJP’s ties with his party, the JD-U, under strain, Modi may offer a cabinet berth to one of Nitish Kumar’s close aides as a placatory gesture and pre-empt any move by the Bihar CM to break the JD-U and BJP’s ruling alliance in Bihar.

Given the BJP’s ambition of gaining electoral ground in Punjab ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, sources say Modi could keep a cabinet berth for a prominent leader from the state. The BJP has, in recent weeks, gone on a spree of acquiring disgruntled Congress leaders from the state, though none of them are currently members of either House of Parliament. Former Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh, whose wife, Preneet Kaur is the Congress’s Lok Sabha MP from Patiala, is also set to merge his fledgling outfit, the Punjab Lok Congress, into the BJP very soon.

There is also the possibility that at least half a dozen governors, particularly those who are nearing completion of their five-year stints or have already exceeded it, could be benched over the next couple of months. Incumbent Governors such as Banwarilal Purohit (Punjab), Acharya Devvrat (Gujarat) and Jagdish Mukhi (Assam, with additional charge of Nagaland) have held gubernatorial roles for more than five years. Arunachal Governor BD Mishra’s term is set to end in October while Satyapal Malik, currently occupying the Meghalaya Raj Bhawan, also completes five years as Governor at the end of next month. Malik, as is well known, has been regularly criticising the Modi government’s policies. Sources said at least some of these governors are unlikely to get an extension.

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Besides, if the BJP-led NDA backs the candidature of one of the incumbent governors for the August 6 vice-presidential polls – names Thawarchand Gehlot (Karnataka), Arif Mohammed Khan (Kerala) and Anandiben Patel (UP) have been doing the rounds – then another Raj Bhawan will have a vacancy.

Sources said that while Modi may fill at least a couple of the expected vacancies in Raj Bhawans either with party veterans or leaders who were relieved from the Union cabinet last July, some gubernatorial appointments could also be from among current members of his council of ministers. It is also rumoured that a few Union ministers could be relieved of their charge and shifted to organisational roles and assigned responsibilities for states that are bound for elections at the end of this year or in 2023.

When he revamped his council of ministers last July, Modi had benched a dozen ministers, including senior leaders Ravi Shankar Prasad, Prakash Javadekar, Sadanand Gowda, Harsh Vardhan and Santosh Gangwar.  It is unclear whether any of these leaders will be headed for an organisational role or to a Raj Bhawan but sources said some incumbent ministers could face the same fate as these veterans and be forced to make way for new faces in the cabinet rejig.

The July 2021 reshuffle also saw MPs from then poll-bound states of UP, Uttarakhand, Goa as well as Gujarat where Assembly polls are due in December this year, being inducted as ministers and others from these states elevated within the cabinet. The impending cabinet expansion too is likely to pander to the BJP’s electoral considerations for states such as Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where elections are due over the next year or so. Sources said the expansion will also factor in the BJP’s electoral expansion plans in the southern states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, which found a notable mention at the party’s recently concluded national executive meet in Hyderabad.

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Government sources said that it is still too early to predict who all in the current council of ministers will be shown the door or others who Modi may induct into his ministerial team. However, the reshuffle is expected to be dramatic and not cosmetic and will be made with an eye on the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.