Small parties could make a big difference to vote shares, find BJP and Congress

Ahead of the 2024 general elections, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is in a hurry to reach out to smaller political outfits to make them join the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

With fewer than 10 months left for the Lok Sabha battle, senior BJP leaders believe an expansion of the NDA will help to counter the One Candidate, One Constituency plan of opposition parties by further increasing the ruling alliance’s voter base.

Although most of the main political parties in the country have already made their choice, the BJP believes the smaller parties can help fill up key gaps while wooing the electorate for the April-May 2024 parliamentary election.

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While most small regional parties have limited influence and enjoy the support of one particular caste or a region, both the BJP and Congress want to induct them to give the impression of a rainbow coalition to the voters.

“The smaller regional parties have a niche voter base that is mainly limited to a particular caste or a specific region. But these parties, which can control up to 3-5 per cent of the electorate, have an impact on a number of Lok Sabha constituencies by adding to the voter base of a party like the BJP,” said a senior BJP leader from Uttar Pradesh.

Offers for Rajbhar

In Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous province which elects a staggering 80 MPs, a smaller party like Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) of Om Prakash Rajbhar is getting offers from the BJP.

Although Rajbhar left the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in February 2019, he is returning to the NDA fold. On Tuesday, he met the Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Brajesh Pathak in Lucknow. “We have not decided yet. We will take a decision only after talking to all the senior leaders of the party,” Rajbhar told The Federal.

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Rajbhar had joined hands with former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav after he quit the NDA but the alliance does not seem to be working.

Influence of Beniwal

Another party being courted by the BJP is Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) in Rajasthan, where assembly elections are just about five months away. Beniwal has decided not to take the bait just yet and is waiting for the results of the assembly elections to choose a side in Rajasthan.

Beniwal represents the Jat community in Rajasthan, and his party’s area of influence is in parts of north Rajasthan, Nagaur and Jodhpur.

“Our immediate focus is to concentrate on assembly elections. We are not thinking about general elections. Our performance in the assembly elections will be a good indicator to decide if we want to enter into an alliance with a political party or not. If we do well in the assembly elections, there is no reason for us to join an alliance with any political party,” said Beniwal.

The big moment for Beniwal and his party was in 2018 when it won three seats in the state assembly and, five months later, one seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls when it contested alongside the BJP.

Dalit votes matter

The story in Bihar is no different for the BJP, which is struggling to bring together two factions of the Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJSP) that have been at war to lead the marginalized Dalit community.

While the BJP leadership has been trying to bring together union minister Pashupati Kumar Paras and his nephew Chirag Paswan, son of the late Ram Vilas Paswan, there has been no breakthrough.

After failing to make similar attempts at least on four different occasions, union minister of state for home affairs Nityanand Rai made the latest attempt on July 9 when he met Chirag Paswan in Patna. However, a compromise has not been reached as Chirag Paswan has demanded that the alliance allow him to contest from the Hajipur Lok Sabha seat, which his father once represented.

“We have six sitting MPs in the Lok Sabha and we want to retain these Lok Sabha seats. There is no question of giving up our claim on the six seats,” said Sanjay Saraf, a leader of the LJSP who is with Pashupati Kumar Paras.

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The BJP is also eyeing smaller parties that represent smaller communities of Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Dalits.

BJP leaders elaborated that OBCs now form the core voter base of the party, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has used the influence of the OBC community to transform the BJP both electorally and to increase its political influence.

OBC network

“The OBCs in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are the core voter base of the BJP. By inviting smaller parties in the NDA, we are only increasing our influence among the OBCs and Dalits,” said a senior leader in Lucknow.

The BJP says that the populist schemes of the Union government are targeted at financially marginalized communities.

“If the opposition parties are planning to fight the BJP through by putting up one candidate in every constituency, the support of smaller parties becomes crucial because they will add to the voter share of the national parties,” said Jai Mrug, a Mumbai-based political analyst.