India to go below Bangladesh in per capita GDP, says IMF

IMF’s forecast, a huge downward revision from its prediction in June, also says that Asia’s third largest economy is likely to bounce back with an impressive 8.8 per cent growth rate in 2021

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The IMF in its report said that revisions to the forecast are particularly large for India, where the GDP contracted much more severely than expected in the second quarter. Representational image: iStock

The National Statistical Office data warning of the economy’s worst contraction since quarterly measurement began in 1996 is now superseded by a study of the International Monetary Fund, which says that not only India is set to drop below Bangladesh in terms of per capita GDP as the economy is projected to contract by a massive 10.3 per cent this year.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who has been critical of the centre over the state of the economy, hit out at the government after the IMF projections. “Solid achievement of 6 years of BJP’s hate-filled cultural nationalism. Bangladesh set to overtake India,” he tweeted.

The IMF’s forecast for India, a huge downward revision from its previous prediction in June, will see the biggest contraction among major emerging markets amid the coronavirus pandemic.

On the positive side, however, the IMF said India, Asia’s third largest economy, is likely to bounce back with an impressive 8.8 per cent growth rate in 2021. It will then regain the position of the fastest growing emerging economy, surpassing China’s projected growth rate of 8.2 per cent, the IMF said.

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According to the IMF’s ‘World Economic Outlook’ report released on Tuesday, India’s per capita GDP is set to plunge by 10.3 per cent to $1,877 this fiscal year ending on March 31, 2021. The IMF’s previous prediction in June said output would shrink 4.5 per cent.

Bangladesh’s per capita GDP in dollar terms is expected to grow 4 per cent in 2020 to $1,888, according to the IMF report.

Released ahead of the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, the report said global growth would contract by 4.4 per cent this year and bounce back to 5.2 per cent in 2021.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das recently said India’s economy is likely to contract 9.5 per cent in the current financial year with risks tilted to downside.

India’s projected slump is the largest of any major economy except for Italy and Spain, and the biggest among the main emerging markets.

Among the other countries in the BRICS group, Brazil’s economy will contract 5.8 per cent, Russia 4.1 per cent, South Africa 8.0 per cent while China will grow 1.9 per cent, according to the IMF’s report.

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