Russia, US pace the battleground as Ukraine crisis comes to a boil

After weeks of hostile posturing, the Ukraine crisis came to a boil, with Russian President Vladimir Putin announcing a formal recognition of the Donbas enclaves of Donetsk and Luhansk, and US President Joe Biden cutting off Russia from western financing and imposing sanctions on its elites.

Moscow’s recognition of the Donbas oblasts (enclaves) in eastern Ukraine — for which Putin signed a decree — marks a breakaway from several years of diplomatic efforts that had been based on the Minsk accords. It represents Russia’s explicit recognition of two separatist groups that control select portions of the Donbas region — its tacit support for the rebels was never a secret. Further, Putin has ordered Russian ‘peacekeeping troops’ into Donbas.

“I deem it necessary to make a decision that should have been made a long time ago — to immediately recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR),” Putin said in a televised speech. Under the Minsk pacts, negotiated in 2014-15 but never implemented in full, the oblasts had secured a special status.

Support for armed rebellion

For nearly a decade now, Russia has been supporting the armed rebellion in eastern Ukraine that has killed around 14,000 people including many civilians. Over the past few years, Russian has been issuing passports to a large number of people from Donetsk and Luhansk.

Also read: Russia-Ukraine standoff: De-escalation top priority, India tells UNSC

Until the latest happenings, the Kremlin had, on the one hand, maintained that it was not a party to the east Ukrainian conflict and, on the other, had its soldiers fighting on the rebels’ side. By its ‘recognition’ of the two ‘republics’, Russia has essentially formalised its stance on east Ukraine. The move, while escalating the tension with the West, marks no stark change in Mosco’s ties with the rebels. It only gives Putin the space to claim that he did not ‘invade’ Ukraine per se, or war with the US or NATO. In Washington’s words, Putin has created a ‘pretext for a war’.

Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are stationed along the Ukraine border and in Belarus for military exercises. There had been hope that these would be withdrawn once the tensions receded, but that seems unlikely now. Moscow has demanded that NATO offer it some security guarantees, and that the bloc temper its expansion into Russia’s neighbours. Ukraine joining NATO has been the prime bone of contention in the latest standoff.

The Kremlin has been unhappy with the Ukrainian government led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the signs of its increasing friendliness with the West. Kiev has shut down some Russian-language TV stations and arrested Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Russian oligarch and politician.

In his televised speech, Putin spoke of how Ukraine is an integral part of Russia, and the border makes little sense. Further, he said eastern Ukraine is ‘ancient Russian land’. Complaining that NATO had ignored Russia’s concerns as irrelevant for decades, he charged the West with trying to contain the growth of his nation as a resurgent global force.

US strikes back

Pooh-poohing Putin’s claim, Biden on Tuesday cut off Russia from western financing and slapped sanctions on its elites. In an executive order, Washington has prohibited fresh investments, trade and financing by Americans in Donetsk and Luhansk. There will be wider Western sanctions if Russia further invades Ukraine, it said.

Also read: UK says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ‘has begun’; sanctions imminent

“Russia just announced that it is carving out a big piece of Ukraine…this is the beginning of a Russian invasion,” said Biden. He threatened further action if Russia moved further into Ukraine. Russia’s actions present a flagrant violation of international laws, and the US and its allies ought to give it a firm response, he added.

“There is no question Russia is the aggressor,” he said. “Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare these new so-called countries in territories that belong to his neighbours?”

The rest of the West has mostly echoed the White House’s stance. The European Union pledged to “react with unity, firmness and with determination in solidarity with Ukraine”. Berlin is halting the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which runs between Germany and Russia. The pipeline, built under the Baltic Sea circumventing Ukraine, is expected to double Moscow’s gas exports to Germany.

The next few days will see whether the row escalates into a full-fledged war or gives way to diplomatic talks.