Putin ‘unlikely to survive war’ and could be toppled before it ends, top Ukraine spy says

Ukraine’s spy chief believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is “unlikely” to survive the war in Ukraine, which has been underway since February earlier this year.

“It’s unlikely that he survives it,” Ukrainian Maj Gen Kyrylo Budanov told defense-analysis website The War Zone. “And currently, there’s active discussions happening in Russia about who’d be there to replace him,” he said adding, the ruling class is growing increasingly frustrated with the Ukraine invasion.

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Who could replace Putin, the spy chief wouldn’t say.

Back to 1991 borders

Budanov, who is Ukraine’s head of intelligence, also outlined how he saw Ukraine winning the war, saying the key was in forcing Russian troops back to Ukraine’s 1991 borders, which he added might happen as early as next year.

His comments come as the Kremlin struggles with its campaign in the east of Ukraine. Russian troops have been forced out amid Ukraine’s huge counteroffensive in the region. Budanov even claimed that Ukraine is aiming to recapture Kherson by the end of November, Daily Mail reports.

Budanov said the city could be retaken by the end of November. He said currently there are around 40,000 Russian troops in and around the region.

“The most trained and most capable Russian units are currently in Kherson. A large share of them are from airborne troops of the Russian Federation, Russian special operation forces and the naval infantry, so the most capable units that Russia has. Those units form the backbone of the grouping and it’s being strengthened by the mobilised personnel also,” he said.

Crimea is Ukraine’s aim

Another key part of Ukraine’s military counteroffensive is taking Crimea which was annexed by Putin in 2014.

“It’s very simple,” Budanov said, “At the first stage, we’ll reach our borders of 1991 [when Ukraine gained its independence from Russia]. And we’ll consider that a good sign and a good opportunity to finish the war.”

When asked when that might happen, he simply said: “Next year”.

Commenting on support among the Russian people for the war, the spy chief said that support would end as soon as Russia was defeated. “The Russian Federation population will continue to support the government and its actions until the very defeat of the Russian Federation. And when Russia loses, they will immediately start saying that they have nothing to do with this [and] that their leaders were wrong.”

He added that it was unlikely any replacement for Putin would be better for Ukraine.

Russian woes

“I don’t believe Russians at all. I don’t believe that there’s any good person behind [Putin] but whoever comes to power will surely blame Putin for all the bad that was done,” he said.

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With the Russian army in open retreat in many areas, Putin has already had to resort to conscripting male civilians, a move which has seen an exodus of men of fighting age attempting to flee the country.

Putin has even made thinly veiled threats of nuclear retaliation if NATO escalates its involvement in the conflict.