While other nominees such as Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value remain in contention, most analysts see the ‘Big Five’ at this year's Oscars to be, by and large, a two-film contest between One Battle After Another and Sinners.
The categories, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress and Screenplay, are often seen as the most prestigious honours at the Oscars. Winning them can shape how a film is remembered for decades. This year the battle seems to be between One Battle After Another and Sinners.
With the 2026 Academy Awards only hours away, the spotlight is once again on the trophies that define the night: the 'Big Five'. These categories, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress and Screenplay, are often seen as the most prestigious honours at the Oscars. Winning them can shape how a film is remembered for decades.
This year’s race is shaping up to be a battle between two films in particular: One Battle After Another and Sinners.
A tight race for Best Picture
In the Best Picture category, One Battle After Another appears to be the frontrunner. Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, the film has performed strongly throughout the awards season. It won the award for the Best Film at the BAFTAs (British Academy Film Awards) last month and has also picked up major recognition from critics' groups and industry bodies.
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The film has also received 13 Oscar nominations, including several acting nods for its ensemble cast featuring Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn and Teyana Taylor.
Its biggest rival is Sinners, which has dominated the Oscars nomination tally this year with a record-breaking 16 nominations. The film blends supernatural horror with social commentary and has gained strong momentum during this awards season.
Director race: a long-awaited win?
The Best Director category also appears to favour Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another. Despite directing several critically acclaimed films over the past three decades, Anderson has never won an Oscar for directing. Many analysts believe this could finally be his year.
However, he faces competition from Ryan Coogler, whose direction of Sinners has been widely praised.
Jessie Buckley is widely expected to win in the 'Best Actress' category for her performance in Hamnet, an adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel about Shakespeare’s family.
Best Actor and Actress frontrunners
In the Best Actor race, Michael B. Jordan is gaining momentum for his performance in Sinners. His role in the film has drawn critical acclaim and could give him a slight edge over competitors such as Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Leonardo DiCaprio.
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Meanwhile, the Best Actress category appears far less competitive. Jessie Buckley is widely expected to win for her performance in Hamnet, an adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel about Shakespeare’s family. Buckley has dominated the awards season and remains the clear favourite in the category.
Screenplay honours
The screenplay categories may be split between the two leading films. One Battle After Another, adapted from Thomas Pynchon’s novel Vineland, is a strong contender for Best Adapted Screenplay, while Sinners is widely predicted to take Best Original Screenplay.
A two-film Oscars race
While other nominees such as Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value remain in contention, most analysts see the ‘Big Five’ at this year's Oscars to be, by and large, a two-film contest between One Battle After Another and Sinners.
But as history has shown, the Oscars are rarely predictable. Even the strongest frontrunners have lost on the final night and one surprise win can change the entire story of the awards.
