Today’s Chanakya exit poll: BJP wins in Assam, Bengal; TVK surprise in TN; Kerala close fight

The saga of exit polls on the recently held Assembly elections in four states and one Union Territory continued on Thursday (April 30) with leading polling firm Today’s Chanakya chipping in with its findings.

Massive NDA sweep in Assam

For Assam, where the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is predicted to continue with its rule, Today’s Chanakya’s forecasts were not much different. In fact, the pollster predicted a sweeping victory for the ruling coalition, which it said could win around 102 seats (with a margin of nine seats) and a vote share of 50 per cent (margin of three per cent).

Also read: Bengal, Assam exit polls spark fierce debate as experts question BJP-sweep predictions

The Congress-led Opposition alliance may get a paltry 23 seats (also a margin of nine) and a vote share of 38 per cent (margin of three per cent). Others may win one seat with a similar vote share.

Assam, which went to the polls on April 9, has an Assembly of 126 members, and to form a government, a party/alliance needs to win 64.

BJP predicted to wrest Bengal

In West Bengal, too, the BJP was set to produce its best-ever results, according to Today’s Chanakya. In an Assembly of 294 members, the saffron party may win 192 seats (with a margin of 11) and 48 per cent vote share (margin of three per cent). The Trinamool Congress (TMC), which most pollsters have said could lose power after 15 years, may get only 100 seats (with a margin of 11) and 38 per cent vote share (margin of three per cent).

Also read: Mamata on exit polls: ‘BJP’s final game to reassure share market; keep calm’

All other parties, including the Congress and the Left, the two traditional forces in Bengal, could get just two votes with an accumulated vote share of 14 per cent (a margin of three per cent). To form a government in Bengal, a party/coalition needs to win 148 seats.

TVK may end second after DMK bloc in TN

In Tamil Nadu, pro-incumbency was set to prevail, as Today’s Chanakya’s survey showed. In an Assembly of 234 seats, the ruling coalition led by Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and including the Congress and several other parties, was predicted to win 125 seats (with a margin of 11) and 39 per cent vote share (with a margin of three per cent).

Also read: Poll strategist explains the 8 pc 'anti-incumbency’ threat for DMK | Interview

The Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the debutant party led by actor-politician Vijay, was the surprise package as per this survey. It could win 63 seats (margin of 11) and a vote share of 30 per cent (margin of three per cent). The NDA, led by All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, BJP and other parties, could finish a disappointing third with just 45 seats in its kitty (margin of 11) and a vote share of 27 per cent (margin of three per cent). Others may win one seat and a four per cent vote share.

In Tamil Nadu, to form a government, a party/coalition has to win 118 seats.

Close call in Kerala

For Kerala, Today’s Chanakya came up with a close call between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the main Opposition, United Democratic Front (UDF), even leading to the lack of a clear mandate.

Also read: Has UDF broken Pinarayi's hat-trick chances? Exit poll discussion

According to the findings, the UDF may end up with 69 seats (margin of nine) and a vote share of 40 per cent (margin of three per cent). The LDF could fall five short with 64 seats (margin of nine) and a vote share of 38 per cent (margin of three per cent). The BJP-led NDA may get seven seats (with a margin of four) and a vote share of 20 per cent (margin of three per cent). Others may not get any seat despite getting a vote share of two per cent.

The Kerala Assembly has 140 seats, and to form a government, a party/alliance has to win 71.

Today's Chanakya didn't make any predictions on Puducherry, which also went to the polls this month.

Results of the elections will be declared on May 4.