Are exit polls losing the plot amid rising uncertainty? | Talking Sense With Srini
Srinivasan flags sharp state-wise divergence in exit polls, highlights challenges of psephology as uncertainty rises and limits of prediction become more evident
Exit polls for the 2026 Assembly elections have thrown up sharply divergent projections across key states, highlighting the complexity of Indian voting behaviour and the limits of psephology. On Talking Sense With Srini, The Federal’s Editor-in-Chief S Srinivasan delved into these trends, cautioning against reading too much into the headline numbers.
Vijay factor splits TN projections
In Tamil Nadu, the most striking anomaly is the wide gap in projections for actor Vijay’s TVK. While one poll suggests a sweeping victory, most others predict a return of the DMK. Srinivasan described the outlier as “a very unlikely scenario,” arguing that the structural strength of Dravidian parties cannot be overturned so quickly.
Also read | Rise of a third force and what it means for TN’s political future | Exit polls 2026
“Are we trying to say that decades of cadre-based politics… are obliterated by a few visits of an actor?” he asked. Though he acknowledged Vijay’s appeal among youth and the possibility of a “third force” emerging, Srinivasan stressed that limited campaign reach and organisational depth make a dramatic breakthrough improbable—at least in the current election.
Different dynamics across states
Kerala, meanwhile, appears headed for a potential shift from the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) to the United Democratic Front (UDF), though Srinivasan warned against viewing it as routine anti-incumbency. “This is a significant election… it could dramatically alter the future,” he said, pointing to internal divisions within both fronts and the rising salience of identity politics. Even if the UDF returns, questions over leadership and cohesion could shape governance.
In West Bengal, exit polls suggest a tight contest, but Srinivasan highlighted two unprecedented factors: the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls and the large deployment of central forces. These, he argued, add “extra layers” of uncertainty. “We really don’t know how these have played out,” he said, noting both fears of disenfranchisement and the possibility of silent voters skewing outcomes.
Also read | Bengal, Assam exit polls spark fierce debate as experts question BJP-sweep predictions
Assam, by contrast, appears more predictable, with projections favouring a return of the BJP under Himanta Biswa Sarma. Yet even here, Srinivasan flagged internal dissent and organisational gaps within the Opposition as key variables.
Exit polls under scrutiny
Stepping back, Srinivasan was blunt about the broader credibility of exit polls. “Psephology… is not a proven science,” he said, citing sampling challenges, respondent bias, and the impact of misinformation. With voters increasingly unwilling to be truthful, poll predictions are becoming harder. For now, he concluded, exit polls offer “great entertainment value,” but little certainty in a country as diverse and complex as India.
