Only 2 states where R-value is over 1. No, it's not Kerala and Maharashtra

The COVID second wave, which caused mayhem across the country, is definitely ebbing with daily case count on Wednesday (September 29) below 20,000. However, the upcoming festival season keeps the danger of a possible third wave alive.

R-value —  the effective reproductive number used to measure the spread of COVID — is well within 1 this week, but scientists warn the numbers could change fast if Navaratri and Diwali celebrations spiral out of control.

This week, India’s R-value is 0.93, slightly higher than last week’s 0.92, Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, told The Print.

The country R-value in the month of August was 1.17 which then dropped to 0.92 in mid-September, an indication that the spread of the virus is under control.

Sinha agrees. The situation at present definitely seems under control, but Navaratri followed by Diwali may alter the scene for worse, because R is still very close to 1.

In simple words, R suggests the average number of people who can get infected from one sick person. To end the pandemic, R value should remain below 1 for a consistent period of time.

Also read: These four states have best vaccination numbers. Read on to know more

Currently, most vulnerable states, like Maharashtra, Karnataka and West Bengal, have R value below 1.

Kerala’s R-value rose from 0.89 on September 21 to 1.04. However, the situation in this southern state is too volatile to draw any conclusions at present. Still, the value came down below 1 in the last couple of days. Maharashtra, another state worst affected by the pandemic, has given satisfying results despite the recent 10-day Ganesh Utsav. The state’s R fell from 0.97 to 0.95 this week.

The situation is a little worrying in Tamil Nadu and Mizoram where the R is above 1 this week.

Odisha’s R is 0.91 while that of Karnataka and West Bengal is steady at 0.95 and 0.96 respectively.

Telangana reported marginal rise to 0.93 this week from 0.92 last week. The value for Andhra dropped from 0.93 to 0.92.

R-value in metros

• Bengaluru – 0.99 (down from 1.06 last week)
• Mumbai – 0.95 (down from 1.09 last week)
• Pune – 0.82 (down from 1.04 last week)
• Chennai – 1.05 (down from 1.11 last week
• Kolkata – 1 (down from 1.04 last week)
• Delhi – 0.92 (unchanged)

Today’s COVID update

As of Wednesday, the country has administered 87.66 crore vaccine doses. Daily new case count is below 20,000 (18,870 new cases in the last 24 hours). Active cases less than 1% of total cases, the lowest since March 2020.

Also read: WHO’s disapproval of Covaxin a setback for Indian science

India’s Active caseload stands at 2,82,520; lowest in 194 days. Recovery rate currently at 97.83%, the highest since March 2020.

Weekly Positivity Rate is 1.82%, which is less than 3% for last 96 days.