Vijay or Rahul for PM in 2029? Why the new TVK-Congress alliance is under strain

After ending its 22-year alliance with the DMK and switching overnight to C Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the Congress entered the Tamil Nadu Cabinet after 59 years. But the new partnership is already under strain.

Congress leaders are unhappy that TVK ministers and workers refuse to accept Rahul Gandhi as the 2029 prime ministerial candidate and instead keep raising slogans that Vijay should be the next prime minister. The party is staying in the alliance for now, despite growing differences.

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The “Vijay for PM” talk has grown louder after the chief minister met Union Home Minister Amit Shah at a recent meeting of South Indian chief ministers. The question in political circles is whether this is merely fan-club enthusiasm or a deeper political calculation.

Vijay’s national pitch grows

For more than 50 years, Tamil Nadu politics followed a two-party pattern. The DMK and the AIADMK alternated in power, while smaller parties aligned with one side or the other. That pattern changed in May 2026. Actor-turned-politician Vijay’s TVK, barely two years old, contested the Assembly election on its own in all 234 seats and emerged as the single largest party with 108 seats. The DMK, which had ruled the state, suffered a heavy defeat. Then chief minister MK Stalin lost his own seat. The old Secular Progressive Alliance, which included the Congress, Left parties, VCK and IUML, began to come apart. Two Congress MLAs, S Rajesh Kumar and P Vishwanathan, became ministers.

The new government is still in its early months. Yet the first serious strain has already appeared, and it is not about water, jobs or law and order. It is about who should be projected as the PM face for 2029.

TVK ministers and MLAs have begun speaking of Vijay in national terms. Public Works Minister Aadhav Arjuna told the Assembly that the country should choose a prime minister from the South. At a public meeting to mark 100 days of the TVK government in Virudhunagar, Tamil Nadu Minister Jagatheeswari said there was no doubt Vijay would become prime minister one day. A TVK MLA said people were already keen on making Vijay prime minister in the 2029 Lok Sabha election.

Social media reels promoting Vijay have also started appearing in northern states. A national survey by India Today-CVoter placed him third among preferred prime ministerial choices, with about 9 per cent support, behind Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. These numbers, coming only a hundred days into his term as the Tamil Nadu chief minister, have been welcomed inside TVK circles.

Congress draws red line

Tamil Nadu Tourism Minister and Congress MLA S Rajesh Kumar made the party’s position public at a meeting in Kanyakumari. He said Rahul would be the prime minister after the 2029 election. If the TVK does not accept that, the two Congress ministers would not stay in the Cabinet. Party comes first, he added.

Tamil Nadu Congress president Manickam Tagore called the “Vijay for PM” talk a fan-club mindset. He pointed out that Vijay himself first approached Rahul for support after the election results and that Congress backing helped the government take shape. Without it, he suggested, other forces might have tried to install a different chief minister.

Congress MP Jothimani said there are still three years to the next Lok Sabha election. The new government needs time to settle. Rahul remains the only prime ministerial face of the larger opposition grouping, she said.

On Monday, the seating arrangement in the Assembly created fresh speculation. Congress Legislature Party leader Tharahai Cuthbert, who had been sitting with the ruling benches, was moved to the front row of the opposition side, next to PMK floor leader Sowmiya Anbumani.

The Speaker explained that she had been chosen as Congress floor leader and was therefore given a front-row seat with other party leaders. Tharahai Cuthbert herself said the party leadership had never declared Vijay as prime ministerial candidate and that the seat change had nothing to do with that debate. Rahul Gandhi remains the PM face, she added.

Alliance partners seek calm

Tagore later met Chief Minister Vijay at the Secretariat on August 31 along with Rajya Sabha MP Praveen Chakravarty. He told The Federal that the meeting was a courtesy call between alliance partners. There was no politics in it, he said. Attempts to damage the relationship would not succeed. Rahul is the prime ministerial candidate without any doubt. Vijay should continue as the chief minister and deliver clean government. Congress would stand with him. The personal equation between Vijay and Rahul, he said, remains brotherly.

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During the meeting between Tagore and Chief Minister Vijay, disappointment was reportedly expressed over the Congress minister’s public challenge. Both sides also discussed the need to avoid further confrontation over the prime ministerial candidate.

TVK tests Congress dependence

Senior political observer Ravindran Duraisamy says the balance of power in the alliance is already clear. “Congress cannot win a Tamil Nadu election on its own. TVK, on the other hand, contested alone and still won 108 seats. So TVK is not the one that needs Congress today. Congress needs Vijay. That is why the party has limited room to walk out. Because of this dependence, TVK leaders have begun saying that Rahul lacks the ability to become the prime minister and that Chief Minister Vijay should be projected as the 2029 PM candidate,” he said

“At the national level, leaders such as Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal and Pinarayi Vijayan have not accepted Rahul Gandhi as the Opposition’s prime ministerial face. Against this backdrop, pushing Vijay’s name could further complicate Rahul’s position,” he said. He also feels that the Congress leaders’ meeting with Vijay on Monday could strengthen TVK.

For TVK, the talk of a southern or Tamil prime minister serves two purposes. It keeps the party’s large fan base engaged and begins introducing Vijay to voters outside Tamil Nadu. For Congress, it is a matter of national positioning. The party has long presented Rahul as the main face against the BJP. A popular new chief minister from an ally being projected in the same space creates discomfort.

Senior journalist Tarasu Shyam is not convinced by the larger claims being made around Vijay. He says there is little basis for the talk that TVK will win 60 Lok Sabha seats. It is an overstatement. Vijay has visibility, he agrees, but he has not yet reached the level needed to be accepted as a prime ministerial candidate. Shyam recalls that Jayalalithaa used the line “Modi or Lady?” in 2016 to consolidate her vote bank. The BRS also tried to become a national party and failed. Many leaders, he says, aspire to play a national role. But HD Deve Gowda became the prime minister only as a third choice after others stayed away. Forgetting that history and comparing Vijay with Deve Gowda is incorrect, he says.

'PM ambitions of new CM premature'

Senior political observer Dayalan Shanmugam takes a sharper view. Vijay has only just become chief minister, he says. He must first prove himself in that post by delivering good governance. Tamil Nadu voters may not take kindly to his being projected as a prime ministerial candidate so early. Shanmugam recalls that journalists once asked Karunanidhi why he should not enter the prime ministerial race. Karunanidhi replied, “I know my height.” Even a leader of that stature never called himself a PM candidate. Against that background, TVK ministers calling Vijay “PM material” is premature, he says.

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He also questions the Congress's position. "Does Rahul Gandhi become the prime ministerial candidate only if Vijay says so? If Vijay does not say it, will Congress drop him?" The party, he feels, has put itself in a difficult position. Congress can ask other INDIA bloc leaders to name Rahul as the prime ministerial face. Expecting the same from TVK, which has not even joined that alliance, is unrealistic, he says.

Shanmugam also points to recent signals from Vijay: his meeting with Shah, his decision not to meet Rahul when the Congress leader came to Chennai, and his absence from a shared stage with Rahul at Vaiko’s book release in Delhi. These, he says, suggest that Vijay wants to maintain a middle path between the BJP and Congress and deal with the Centre without open hostility.

Early test for alliance

The old DMK-Congress relationship had its own tensions over seats and influence. This new partnership was formed in a hurry after the election results. It has not yet been tested through a full term in office. The first disagreement has emerged earlier than many expected.

Whether the alliance holds will depend on how both sides handle the coming months. Vijay has not spoken on the prime minister question. His silence so far has been noted. Congress has made its position public and then tried to lower the temperature through a meeting. The seating change, which drew attention for a day, has been explained as routine.