Horse-trading row: Is DMK desperate to topple Vijay government?

Earlier this week, DMK president MK Stalin declared that the C Joseph Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) government would not survive for long. Days earlier, he had predicted that the government might not last even six months, citing administrative failures, a deteriorating law-and-order situation, power shortages and declining investor confidence in the state.

Criticism or last-ditch attempt?

A month ago, Stalin had struck a similar note. He said the TVK government's majority was fragile and Tamil Nadu could face Assembly elections any time soon. He asked DMK cadres to remain prepared for polls. He also set up a 36-member committee to analyse the party's electoral defeat and called for a stronger organisational comeback.

Also read: ‘Political poaching not a new trend in TN’; will TVK resist or fall prey?

Now, the TVK is accusing the DMK of trying to turn those predictions into reality. The ruling party alleges that several of its MLAs were offered crores of rupees to switch sides. It also claims that some legislators were threatened as part of an attempt to topple the Vijay government through horse-trading.

The allegations surfaced after police arrested three persons for allegedly trying to influence TVK MLA N Elaiyaraja. While the investigation continues, the episode has triggered a political debate over whether the DMK is becoming increasingly desperate to return to power after its unexpected defeat.

Is Stalin getting impatient?

Political commentator Peer Mohamed says the contrast with Stalin's earlier political approach is striking. He recalled that following the death of former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa in 2016, the AIADMK government under Edappadi K Palaniswami was politically unstable. Thanks to intra-party strife, the government was on shaky ground from 2017 to 2021. Even then, Stalin did not try to engineer defections.

Also read: 'Rs 35-cr plot to topple Vijay govt': 3 arrested, Senthil Balaji's brother absconding

“Stalin waited patiently till the 2021 Assembly election and functioned as a principled Opposition leader. Many senior leaders within the party felt the political situation was favourable to bring down the AIADMK government. But Stalin did not attempt to do so despite having several opportunities. Today, that image is getting damaged because there is a perception that the party wants power at any cost,” he said.

Many DMK insiders, according to Mohamed, allege that Stalin has tarnished his reputation on poor advice, the talks of a DMK-AIADMK deal being a stark example. “Those alleged efforts, which remained in the background then, are now being brought back into the spotlight by the TVK through these horse-trading allegations," he told The Federal.

Why horse-trading narrative works for Vijay

He also said the DMK's recent public attack on CPI(M), after its state secretary criticised the alleged horse-trading attempts, reflects growing political impatience.

According to him, the TVK narrative is engineered to cast suspicion on the DMK’s motives. Vijay is scheduled to visit Karur next week, a district that remains politically sensitive after the September 2025 stampede, in which 41 people were killed during a TVK election rally. The tragedy triggered criminal investigations and intense criticism of the TVK’s handling of the event.

Also read: AIADMK: Will demand CBI probe if TVK continues 'horse-trading'

"The horse-trading narrative helps shift the political conversation away from Karur. Instead of questions about the stampede, the focus is now on allegations against the DMK and its Karur strongman, former minister V Senthil Balaji. That gives TVK a political advantage ahead of Vijay's visit," Mohamed told The Federal.

Is conspiracy claim backed by evidence?

Political analyst Ilangovan Rajasekaran, however, disagreed with the suggestion that the DMK is acting out of desperation.

“It is not desperation. It is disappointment. Every party that loses an election goes through that phase. The DMK has suffered bigger defeats in the past," he told The Federal.

Rajasekaran also questioned the feasibility of the alleged conspiracy. “The numbers simply don't add up. Even with the AIADMK’s support, the DMK would need 12 more MLAs to form a government. Unless there is evidence, these allegations remain politically exaggerated," he said.

Also read: Congress, Left slam DMK over allegations of trying to bribe TVK MLAs

He also pointed out that as per the TVK’s claims, almost all its MLAs were approached. “Then where is the evidence relating to the others? So far, there is no money trail. Without prima facie evidence, this becomes political rhetoric," he said.

DMK rejects allegations

The DMK has outright rejected the allegations. It has accused the TVK of diverting attention from its own induction of tainted former AIADMK leaders. DMK leaders further allege that the ruling party itself attempted to lure legislators from other parties.

With the police investigation still underway, all the allegations remain unproven. But Stalin's repeated predictions that the TVK government would fall have now become central to the political debate over whether the DMK is simply preparing for the next election or actively seeking an early return to power.