Cyclone Akvan may intensify by Nov 16; will it bring rain to Chennai?

A third major cyclone is brewing over the Bay of Bengal this northeast monsoon season, raising questions about its likely path and impact on India's eastern coastline.

While the system is likely to intensify into Cyclone Akvan by Monday (November 16), Tamil Nadu, particularly Chennai, faces uncertainty over whether it will bring much-needed rainfall or leave the region largely dry.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the system began as a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal and has since intensified into a well-marked low-pressure area and then a depression.

Also read: Cyclone Akvan: Third cyclone in a month brewing over Bay of Bengal

On November 15 morning, the IMD confirmed that the system was now a depression. It is likely to move north-northwestwards and strengthen into a full-fledged cyclonic storm over the central Bay of Bengal by Monday evening and further intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 17 and move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.

Chennai outlook

Tamil Nadu may have to wait a couple of days more to understand the system's movement and its potential impact on the state's rainfall. However, if the cyclone tracks towards Andhra Pradesh, as it is doing, it could suppress rainfall over Chennai and northern Tamil Nadu.

VR Durai, head of the Regional Meteorological Centre, explained that the developing system could draw winds from the Arabian Sea, altering wind direction over Chennai and neighbouring areas and resulting in dry weather.

He also said the cyclone's movement would become clearer by Monday. For now, light to moderate rainfall is likely over southern Tamil Nadu and the Western Ghats until November 19, according to the Regional Meteorological Centre. Chennai, meanwhile, may receive only isolated light showers.

Odisha on alert

Meanwhile, the IMD has issued an orange alert for some districts of Odisha. The state is also likely to experience isolated thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds reaching 40-50 kmph.

Also read: Cyclone Arnab: AP reports massive crop loss, Centre promises support

The weather department has forecast widespread rainfall activity over Odisha on November 20, with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely in Ganjam, Gajapati and Kandhamal districts.

Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely in Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Cuttack, Khurda, Puri, Nayagarh, Kalahandi, Koraput and Boudh districts.