Ground Report | Will Anvar's rebellion cost LDF Muslim support in Malabar region?

CP Arshad Ali, 45, from Edavanna in Malappuram district was home on his annual leave from the UAE, where he works as an accountant.

On September 28, he was in Chandakkunnu, Nilambur, attending 'rebel' MLA PV Anvar's first public meeting after severing ties with the LDF. Though Arshad Ali comes from a staunch Muslim League family, he has been voting for the LDF in the last three elections since 2006, whenever he was home to cast his vote. Ali is disappointed with the recent political developments involving Nilambur MLA Anvar and the CPI(M) leadership, leaving him confused about which side to support.

Also Read: Kerala: Anvar attacks Pinarayi, CPM; seeks HC-monitored probe into charges

Antagonising Anvar

“I am not an active political worker, but I do believe in the current government. However, this latest development could have been avoided. I'm not sure if all the allegations raised by MLA Anvar are true, but some seem very genuine. The CM should have listened to him and conducted an impartial inquiry. I attended Anvar’s meeting just to get a sense of what he had to say and hear him out,” Ali told The Federal while sipping a black tea at a roadside eatery near Manjeri.

“I still don’t have a clear picture, but antagonizing Anvar could cost the LDF dearly, not only in Nilambur but in entire Northern Kerala,” added Arshad Ali.

Arshad Ali's voice perfectly captures the sentiment resonating across the northern districts of Kerala (Malabar region) since the Anvar controversy erupted. No one is entirely certain of the truth, but many non-cadre voters of the LDF share a growing conviction that the government should have responded more sympathetically to the issues Anvar raised.

Dubious intentions?

On the other hand, party cadres have a different perspective. CT Zacharia, a CPI(M) local leader who initially vociferously supported Anvar when he first spoke out, has now completely withdrawn his support. However, Zacharia stands firm on every word he spoke against the district police, refusing to backtrack from his earlier criticism.

“Anvar raised certain issues related to the police, and from my own experience, I realised that there was some truth in it. It was against this background that I posted on Facebook, explaining how my vehicle was seized by the police, how they tried to ruin my life, and how I eventually had to sell that vehicle. Everything I said back then was absolutely true, and I still stand by it to this day.”

“However, I do not support Anvar now. In fact, I will oppose him even more strongly whenever I get an opportunity. Because, like those who support Anvar without understanding his true intentions, I, too, once misunderstood him. But now, not only do I no longer trust him, but I am also fully convinced that his intentions are not pure,” said Zachariah.

Also Read: Kerala: Pinarayi, CMO in a tight spot as MLA Anwar goes all out

Pinarayi interview twist

Anvar’s outbursts after distancing himself from the LDF have taken a new turn with Pinarayi Vijayan’s recent interview with The Hindu. In the interview, the CM revealed that 150 kg of gold and ₹123 crore in hawala money have been seized by the state police in the last five years in the Malappuram district. He added that this money is being funneled into Kerala for anti-state and anti-national activities. [The CM's office has now issued a clarification, saying some of the statements in the interview by CM have been wrongly attributed].

Although the chief minister had made a similar statement last week, barring the anti-national references, in his press conference, it didn't spark much debate at the time. However, with Anvar now taking to the streets and his politics evolving into one centered on identity, the reference to Malappuram and “anti-national” activities is being painted as an attack on the minority community.

'Blaming entire community'

“The chief minister told The Hindu that Malappuram district is under the control of the largest criminal gang in the state. Why is he not saying this to other newspapers in Kerala, including Mathrubhumi and Manorama? This raises questions. Is the news headed straight to Delhi with good or ill intentions? The gold that is seized is coming through Malappuram, including from Karipur to Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and other places. One should check the passport of the person who was arrested to see which district he is from. The chief minister should say that the accused is from that district. However, he is blaming an entire community,” said Anvar in a public meeting in Kozhikode.

The chief minister’s interview has not gone well with most Muslim organisations. The Kerala Muslim Jamaat Council has already issued a statement condemning his remarks. The Indian Union Muslim League is planning to take to the streets in protest against the CM’s statements. The Congress leadership has also condemned the chief minister's reference to the district, asserting that he is aligning himself with the RSS and the BJP.

Also Read: CPI(M) severing all ties with Independent MLA Anvar: Party's Kerala secretary Govindan

Attempt to weaken CPI(M)

“One of the main reasons the BJP has not been able to grow in Kerala is the historical influence of Left-wing ideologies. The BJP's central leadership has repeatedly emphasised that their hopes for expansion depend on weakening the CPI(M). This is why, for some time now, they have been running a campaign, accusing the CPI(M) of appeasing Muslims. Now, the same propagandists who have been accusing the CPI(M) of appeasing Muslims have started claiming that the party is actually anti-Muslim and that there was an understanding with the RSS, which led to the BJP's victory in Thrissur,” said a minister.

“The broad support that the CPI(M) and Pinarayi Vijayan receive from religious minorities is deeply unsettling for both organisations that operate under the banner of minority protection and religious fundamentalism. The government's favourable stance towards some Muslim community organisations, which have never embraced left-wing ideologies, has shaken them to their core. These organisations are the main promoters of the lies about Anvar,” said the minister.

Tough to recover from jolt

This turnaround has become detrimental to the party's efforts to recover from the jolt it faced in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party has concluded that the OBC vote, which has long been its backbone, drifted away this time not only to the UDF but also towards the BJP. Simultaneously, the minority votes that have consistently supported the party in the local self-government and Assembly elections since 2015 have significantly eroded.

“We were not overly concerned about minority votes, which we believe went to the Congress due to the political climate at the national level. However, the OBC votes are a bit of a concern. If the inhibition against voting for the BJP, whom we categorically label as communal, remains, it will be difficult to reclaim those votes. We had been devising a strategy, but this sudden situation has clearly overshadowed it. Now, we need to come up with something drastic,” a top party leader told The Federal.

Also Read: ‘Attempt to malign govt’: Kerala CM Vijayan rejects Anvar's allegations

Significant overhaul needed

However, CPI(M) leaders in Malappuram district have a different perspective on the issue. Some believe the crisis arose because the state leadership pursued turncoat minority leaders from the IUML and Congress. “Local Muslim communists, derogatorily referred to as ‘Mappila Comrades’ (Maplaavu in Malayalam) by the opponents, have been totally sidelined, while newbies like Anvar established direct connections with the AKG Centre in Thiruvananthapuram. If the current situation forces introspection, it’s a positive step,” a district committee member told The Federal.

Now, with a "tsunami of propaganda" claiming the CPI(M) is opposed to minority rights and in collusion with the BJP and RSS, the party’s rectification project will need a significant overhaul. The CPI(M) can no longer dismiss the growing negative sentiment among Muslim minorities while focusing solely on wooing the OBC community.

UDF in wait-and-watch mode

Even the Sunni Muslim faction led by Kanthapuram AP Aboobacker Musaliar, long aligned with the LDF, has begun to turn against the CPI(M). This shift happened rapidly, with Jamaat-e-Islami and SDPI, whom the CPI(M) views as ‘political Islamist’ organisations, seizing control of the narrative and even steering public sentiment against the party.

Also Read: After Hema panel report, MLA Anvar's outrage shakes up Pinarayi govt

The UDF, on the other hand, is adopting a wait-and-watch strategy, sensing that the political climate is highly favourable for them. This could potentially lead to an unexpected victory in the upcoming 2025 local body elections. Traditionally, the LDF has held an advantage in local elections, but the UDF now sees a chance to reverse the trend.

That apart, the BJP is also aiming to significantly expand its foothold in these elections.