Will Siddaramaiah's 'Dalit CM' move shatter Shivakumar's CM dream?

As speculation over the change of political leadership in Karnataka has resurfaced, with Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's loyalists preparing to once again play the 'Dalit CM' card to stump Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar, whose camp is pushing him to replace the former as the top state executive.

At a dinner meeting of Dalit ministers and members of the Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council held at a private hotel in Bengaluru on Tuesday (February 3) night, the strategy to tackle Shivakumar was decided upon.

Also read: Siddaramaiah denies power struggle over chief minister chair

The informal meeting assumes significance in the wake of the possibility that the Congress high command will make efforts to resolve Karnataka's leadership problem after the state budget is presented in the first week of March.

The assembly, held under the leadership of state Home Minister G Parameshwara, reportedly saw more than 20 people, including ministers H C Mahadevappa, K H Muniyappa, Shivaraj Tangadagi, and former minister K N Rajanna, and it was unanimously decided to present before the high command the idea to settle for a Dalit CM in the state.

Also read: CM Siddaramaiah confident of completing full term, Shivakumar says ‘good luck’

Additionally, the use of Scheduled Castes Sub-Plan (SCSP) and Tribal Sub-Plan (TSP) funds, meant for the government's welfare schemes, and the demand for special funds for the Dalit community in the upcoming budget were also discussed.

Tug-of-war intensifies

Siddaramaiah has already broken the record of being the longest-serving CM of Karnataka, with more than two years remaining for the next Assembly polls. The 77-year-old leader is also the finance minister (FM) who has presented 16 budgets in his career. If he remains the CM and FM for the remaining term of the government, he would also eclipse former Gujarat FM and Karnataka governor Vajubhai Vala's record of presenting 18 budgets.

Also read: Siddaramaiah becomes Karnataka's longest-serving CM, breaks Devaraj Urs’ record

However, the Shivakumar camp is not sitting idle. According to sources, the deputy CM has demanded that both he and Siddaramaiah go to Delhi and meet the high command, including party president Mallikarjun Kharge and Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi, and discuss the matter and extract a promise from the incumbent CM about handing over the reins. The high command was yet to give a positive response to this, the sources added.

Aware of the developments, Siddaramaiah has already rolled the dice for a 'Dalit CM'.

Also read: Secrets of Siddaramaiah's record run as CM: Experience, adaptability, smart governance

The demand for a Dalit CM is not new. However, what is different this time is the solidarity the Siddaramaiah camp has shown for the idea. Previously, only a handful of ministers and MLAs would discuss it even if the topic came up for talks.

This time, more than 20 people (and the number could go up) have decided to strongly present the demand for a Dalit CM, which, according to many, would throw a major challenge to both Shivakumar and the high command.

DKS' dilemma

Rumours are abuzz in the political circles that Tuesday's meeting was held at the behest of CM Siddaramaiah, making it clear that he doesn't want to give up the post. The decision to insist that if power is taken away from Siddaramaiah, it should be given to Dalits would be an unbearable burden for the DKS camp. Analysts consider it a 'masterstroke' by Siddaramaiah.

Also read: Parameshwara signals CM ambition as Karnataka leadership debate heats up

The deputy CM has indeed found himself in a dilemma. While he is unwilling to step back from his claim to leadership, he would not be able to openly oppose a Dalit leadership. The only way forward for him is to beat all his opponents in the number game to prove his eligibility for the CM's post.

However, political experts believe that if Siddaramaiah's Dalit and backward class MLAs come together, Shivakumar's numbers might not be enough to see him through. So, even if Siddaramaiah loses the grip and the chair goes to a Dalit occupant, it would still be a win for the current chief minister.

Siddaramaiah's checkmate move?

Siddaramaiah has always used the weapon of 'social justice, non-violence' against the high command leaders. Now, he is using the dinner meeting of Dalit leaders to devise a strategy to corner Shivakumar. He has reportedly tried to convince the high command leaders that if DKS is given the leadership, the Dalits may turn against the party.

While Shivakumar has been repeatedly raising the issue of power sharing, and to put an end to this, Siddaramaiah is said to have brought the 'Dalit CM' debate to the forefront, keeping Dalit leaders in the spotlight.

Also read: Will continue in politics till I have people's blessings: Siddaramaiah

The tug-of-war between the CM and the Dy CM over the leadership change has also put the high-ranking leaders in a dilemma and has made Shivakumar's path to the CM's chair even more difficult.

The article was first published in The Federal Karnataka