Why UP BJP is banking on ‘sangathan shilpi’ Sunil Bansal for 2027 election

With the country’s biggest assembly election coming up next year, the BJP doesn't have much time to rejoice over its recent victories in West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry.

Uttar Pradesh, despite its reputation as a saffron stronghold in recent years, has been gradually slipping out of its grip. And the party machinery has been quietly trying to get its house in order before the all-important polls.

A major speculation doing the rounds among BJP circles is the return of master strategist Sunil Bansal—the party’s “sangathan shilpi” ("organisation shaper")—as the party in-charge for the state. They hope he will help it recover from the losses of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when the INDIA bloc won 43 seats (Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party got 37), while the NDA got only 36 (BJP got 33 seats).

The Bansal magic

Bansal (57), a trusted aide of Union Home Minister Amit Shah and the strategist credited with the BJP’s dramatic breakthrough in West Bengal, was not involved in the affairs of Uttar Pradesh in 2024. The BJP leaders in the state claim his absence “dented the party’s prospects” during the general elections.

However, there have been murmurs in recent days about Bansal moving up the ladder within the party. He could be named the BJP's new organisation general secretary, replacing BL Santosh, in Nitin Nabin's upcoming rejig, say sources.

If Bansal, who is currently the BJP's national general secretary, does get a new post within the party, he may not be told to handle the Uttar Pradesh election.

Bansal’s UP track record

Known for his understated but immensely effective style, Bansal had been central to the BJP’s successive wins in Uttar Pradesh, apart from its strong shows in Odisha, Bengal, and Telangana (which it did not win).

Bansal served as the BJP’s organising secretary in Uttar Pradesh for eight consecutive years, and the party won all the polls in the state in this period—the 2014 and 2019 general elections and the 2017 and 2022 state elections. In 2014, the BJP won a record 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, under Bansal’s watch.

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While there has also been a growing buzz that Bansal might be elevated to the position of the party’s new general secretary (organisation) in the upcoming BJP rejig, many in the party’s UP unit are hoping for a quick turnaround if Bansal takes charge of the state again. “Our sangathan shilpi from Rajasthan is going to change things for us in Purvanchal,” a senior BJP functionary told The Federal.

Complex Purvanchal politics

Purvanchal, that is the eastern section of the state, is now a major headache for the party. Housing over 160 of the UP’s 403 Assembly seats, Purvanchal is home to Varanasi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Lok Sabha constituency, as well as Gorakhpur, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s Assembly seat.

During the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP faced heavy losses in Purvanchal, and the most demoralising was the Faizabad seat loss. The Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency houses Ayodhya, and after the party’s intense focus on inaugurating the Ram temple, the loss came as a major shock.

Politics in Purvanchal is heavily driven by a complex micro-caste calculus where smaller, non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits act as the kingmakers. Upper castes constitute around 20 per cent of the population. Among the OBCs, the Yadavs are the dominant group and the core SP vote base. Non-Yadavs comprise nearly 40 per cent, including Kurmis, Maurya/Kushwahas, Rajbhars, and Nishads.

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The immediate challenge for the BJP in Purvanchal is to counter the Samajwadi Party’s “Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak (backward, Dalit, and minorities)” pitch. Winning the region requires forging strategic alliances with highly localised sub-caste groups, which Bansal is seen as being adept at.

The Brahmin, Thakur puzzle

Brahmin disgruntlement, meanwhile, has been bothering the BJP. Last year, some of its disgruntled Brahmin MLAs held a meeting in Lucknow, which Akhilesh had quickly played up, saying the BJP did not respect the “tilak”. He had also hailed Brahmins’ contribution to society and stated his party always honoured the community.

Another major setback the party faced in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls was that the Thakur community, a usual supporter, chose not to vote for it. “They were unhappy over ticket distribution. That is why Bansalji is being brought in again. He understands a candidate’s ability. Besides, our Yogiji is also a Thakur,” said a BJP leader from UP.

Also read: Akhilesh focuses on Gurjar-Muslim formula to offset Jat deficit in western UP

These are multiple, complex issues that need deft handling by a seasoned strategist. Even as the UP unit is hoping for Bansal’s return, it has already started the ground work, a senior BJP leader told The Federal. “We have expanded the state cabinet to maximum capacity, with a heavy focus on non-Yadav OBCs (like Kurmis), Pasi, and also Brahmin representation to protect our traditional voter base,” the leader said.

Can the BJP’s “sangathan shilpi” come up with a timely solution to pacify the Brahmins and Thakurs of Purvanchal and snatch the region back from the SP’s grip? We have to wait until next year to find out.