UP Legislative Council polls: BJP wins big, but SP wins where it matters

The hotly contested Uttar Pradesh Legislative Council (MLC) election results, seen as a bellwether for the 2027 Assembly polls, were announced on Wednesday (October 28) with both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the principal Opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) claiming decisive victories.

By 7 pm on Wednesday, the Election Commission had declared results for eight seats. The BJP won five seats, which included Meerut Graduates, Meerut Teachers, Lucknow Teachers, Bareilly-Moradabad Teachers and Agra Graduates.

The SP, meanwhile, bagged three – Varanasi Teachers, Agra Teachers and Allahabad-Jhansi Graduates. In the remaining three constituencies—Varanasi Graduates, Lucknow Graduates and Gorakhpur-Faizabad Teachers—the SP led in the first two, while the BJP led in Gorakhpur-Faizabad.

BJP with numeric advantage

The overall results, on the face of it, awarded BJP the numeric advantage as the party took the lion’s share of all 11 contested seats in what is exceedingly being seen as the semi-final for the UP Assembly elections.

Also read: MLC election results: Do they reflect political mood? What experts say

For the SP, however, the gains offer a moral and psychological victory. The party says its jewel in the crown was the decisive victory in both the teachers’ and graduates’ seats in Varanasi, the Lok Sabha constituency of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The party has also claimed that it was poised to win the nail-biting contest in the Gorakhpur-Faizabad Teachers’ seat, had the administration not allegedly colluded with the ruling BJP to thwart its victory. Gorakhpur is not only Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s political bastion but also the place from where he scripted his meteoric rise in state and national politics.

The gains, the party says, indicate that its PDA strategy (political and social strategy) and voter mobilisation are yielding promising results.

What SP said

“The results are reflective of the fact that our PDA strategy is gaining traction among voters. We delivered a decisive victory in Purvanchal and in other parts. We will capitalise on these gains and ensure that Akhilesh Yadav ji becomes the Chief Minister in 2027,” Samajwadi Party Spokesperson Abhishek Bajpai told The Federal.

In the BJP’s camp, the mood on Wednesday was uncharacteristically sombre. The party has said that while it has retained all its seats, the results have offered it an opportunity to reflect on its organisational strength and electoral strategy.

“We are happy that we retained all our seats and still have a greater number than the SP. However, we will have to reflect why we could not increase our tally and why we lost some of the seats that we should have won. The Opposition should not be under any illusion that this will affect our chances to win for the third consecutive time in upcoming Assembly elections,” BJP spokesperson Dinesh Pratap Singh told The Federal.

Also read: Congress dares PM Modi to hold all future elections using ballot papers

For political observers, the results were the harbinger of the fierce contest slated to unfold in the coming months. SP’s success in the Purvanchal belt does not bode well for the ruling BJP party. The Federal reported earlier this month that Purvanchal's restive electorate could become the BJP’s Achilles' heel.

“The results are very interesting, particularly in the Purvanchal belt. For the BJP, it’s a rude shock that its grip on the region is weakening. For the Samajwadi Party, it’s a good sign that Purvanchal’s mood is shifting and can be tapped into to corner the ruling party,” pointed out Lucknow-based veteran political commentator Ratanmani Lal.

Varanasi, Lucknow and Allahabad deliver the biggest political message

The SP recorded its most consequential performance in Varanasi, Prime Minister Modi’s Lok Sabha constituency. SP candidate Lal Bihari Yadav and Ashutosh Singh both retained the Teachers’ and Graduates’ seats, respectively.

Speaking to The Federal, experts said the twin victories become all the more important when the Allahabad-Jhansi Graduates’ seat, where SP’s incumbent candidate Man Singh Yadav is poised to win, is taken into account.

The results are particularly important, experts say, for the SP because they demonstrate its ability to consolidate support among two distinct electorates in the Purvanchal region.

“It reveals that BJP’s fort in Varanasi is cracking. First, PM Modi's winning margin dropped drastically in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. And now, these wins indicate that SP’s organisation has been able to convert support into votes,” Lal added.

In Lucknow, BJP incumbent Umesh Dwivedi secured a third consecutive term in the Teachers’ MLC constituency, while in the Graduates’ constituency, SP candidate Kanti Singh was poised to unseat incumbent BJP MLC Awanish Kumar Singh.

“The SP’s victory in the Graduates’ seat gives the Opposition an additional foothold in the state capital, where the BJP has traditionally enjoyed considerable organisational strength,” Lal noted.

Agra and Gorakhpur expose fault lines

According to political analysts, the results in Agra and Gorakhpur expose fault lines in both parties. While the BJP’s incumbent Manvendra Pratap Singh, popularly known as Guruji, retained the contested Graduates’ seat, the SP won the hotly contested Teachers’ seat. The seat was previously held by Dr. Akash Agarwal, who had previously won the seat as an independent candidate.

The decisive victory in Agra’s Graduates’ seat reflected SP’s swift strategy to award the ticket to Agarwal after the BJP had denied him one. The reverse, however, happened in Gorakhpur-Faizabad Teachers’ seat. Akhilesh Yadav publicly announced the replacement of the party’s previous candidate, Kamlesh Yadav, after BJP turncoat Sanjayan Tripathi joined the party following his rift with the saffron camp over ticket distribution.

“It goes on to show that parachuting candidates just before elections can cut both ways. So, the SP has to be very careful in awarding tickets for the assembly elections because it can upset the cadre and impact winnability,” pointed out Lucknow-based political commentator Piyus Rai.

While the BJP won the Gorakhpur-Faizabad Teachers’ seat as a saving grace, experts argued that the tight contest and wafer-thin margin suggest the BJP may be losing its grip on its stronghold.

Education, jobs and the youth question

Experts say the results also invite deeper scrutiny, as the electorate for these elections comprised the educated middle class that has long supported the ruling BJP. The fact that the BJP failed to increase its tally, experts contest, reflects that the voter base is becoming restive and issues such as paper leaks, Gen-Z protests over Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls, unemployment, and a crumbling economy have disgruntled a chunk of the BJP’s voter base.

“Unlike Assembly elections, where rhetoric of caste and religion play a significant role, here pressing issues of society have a bearing on the results. The results show that the educated middle class is not buying the BJP’s narrative and is gradually, but steadily, looking for alternatives,” Lal added.

For Rai, however, these results must be taken with a pinch of salt.

“While it does offer insight into the mood of the electorate, the results should be read with caution. The SP needs to become buoyed by its gains as the BJP can bounce back and its entire state machinery and organisational strength can turn around the narrative in a matter of a few weeks. It all depends on what both parties do from here on,” Rai added.

Ultimately, experts argue, these results are neither a sweeping endorsement of the BJP nor a decisive verdict in favour of the SP. The BJP retains the numbers, while the SP has increased its tally and secured victories in constituencies with considerable political symbolism.

“With the 2027 Assembly elections approaching, the results offer the Opposition a morale boost and a platform to challenge the ruling party, but translating these gains into a broader electoral shift will depend on whether it can sustain its appeal beyond the limited electorate of teachers and registered graduates,” Rai added.