'Will shut down Akhilesh shop': Owaisi sets his eyes on Muslim votes in UP

Aggressive campaigning is underway for Maharashtra’s local body and Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections. That noise has now begun to echo in Uttar Pradesh as well. All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi has thrown down a direct challenge to Samajwadi Party (SP) president Akhilesh Yadav from the campaign stage, declaring that he would “shut down Akhilesh Yadav’s shop.”

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While this signals Owaisi’s preparations for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections due next year, it has also intensified speculation about an impending bid to make inroads into the Muslim vote bank.

What Owaisi said

There is still a year to go for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, but political players are already eager to step onto the pitch. After a strong showing in the Seemanchal region during the recent Bihar Assembly elections, Owaisi is now keen to shift focus to Uttar Pradesh.

Owaisi has gone all out in the BMC elections, throwing his full weight behind the campaign. His public meetings have been drawing large crowds, encouraging him to increasingly raise issues related to Muslim voters in his speeches. Speaking from a BMC campaign platform in Mumbai, Owaisi directly targeted the Samajwadi Party’s Muslim voter base.

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Challenging Akhilesh head-on, Owaisi said he would shut down Akhilesh’s “shop”. Reiterating the challenge during his campaign speeches, he said: “Listen carefully. Muslim political leadership will move forward. Abu Asim and Akhilesh Yadav know that the day minority political leadership comes to the fore, Akhilesh Yadav’s shop will shut.”

Owaisi did not stop there and once again asserted that he would end Akhilesh’s political dominance.

Seen in context, Owaisi’s remarks and aggressive posture clearly indicate AIMIM’s intent to become active on the ground ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. For this, focusing on Muslim voters is crucial. In Uttar Pradesh, Muslims are not only considered the Samajwadi Party’s traditional support base, but they also backed the party decisively in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Although the Samajwadi Party has moved away from its earlier M+Y formula to adopt the PDA (a term for backward class and minorities) framework, Muslim voters — the largest minority group — stood firmly with Akhilesh. Muslim voters played a key role in the success of the Congress-SP alliance in the Lok Sabha polls. If Akhilesh hopes to replicate that success in the Assembly elections, continued Muslim support will be essential.

Questions over Akhilesh's approach

In recent times, questions have been raised about Akhilesh’s political approach, with critics arguing that in trying to accommodate all sections, Muslim issues are being sidelined. He has also been accused of taking a ‘soft’ stand on several sensitive matters.

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After violence broke out in Bareilly following action in the “Love Jihad” controversy, Akhilesh landed at Bareilly airport to meet Rampur MP Azam Khan. However, he did not meet any Muslim leader or family from Bareilly, not even at the airport. Similarly, during action against leaders such as Azam Khan and Irfan Solanki, Akhilesh was criticised for not opposing the Yogi Adityanath government more forcefully.

Over time, these leaders did signal that they continued to stand with the SP chief, and Akhilesh cited legal constraints while extending support. However, it is evident that with the Samajwadi Party’s revised strategy, Akhilesh’s public events now focus on the PDA narrative, with no separate articulation directed at Muslim voters. This, too, offers a glimpse into his evolving political strategy.

When Muslim voters backed SP-Congress alliance

During the Lok Sabha elections, even as Akhilesh raised the PDA slogan, Muslims were given fewer tickets. The decision to deny a ticket to ST Hasan in Moradabad and instead field Ruchi Veera became a talking point. While it was claimed that the ticket was allotted at the behest of jailed leader Azam Khan, Hasan’s supporters protested the decision. There was also widespread discussion among ordinary Muslims over a Muslim leader being dropped.

Despite this, Muslim voters stood by Akhilesh during the elections. According to Lokniti-CSDS data, 92 per cent of Muslim voters supported the SP-Congress alliance in the Lok Sabha polls. The narrative around protecting the Constitution also played a role.

Owaisi now wants to draw Muslim voters into his camp well ahead of the Assembly elections. Challenging Akhilesh, he argued that while votes are taken from the community, there is little benefit for the people. Hence, he insists, Muslim political leadership must come forward.

Muslims want a stake: AIMIM

AIMIM spokesperson Syed Asim Waqar said the party will fully focus on Uttar Pradesh after the West Bengal elections and that AIMIM wants the BJP to be defeated.

“After the Bengal elections, we will focus entirely on UP. People are unhappy with Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi because they say one thing and do another. Dalits have their own space. Upper-caste voters are moving towards the BJP. In such a situation, the worst condition is that of Muslim voters, who feel the most orphaned. Muslims have now decided that they will not just vote, they want a stake as well,” Waqar said.

SP not worried about Owaisi: Spokesperson

For now, Owaisi’s statement has given the Samajwadi Party another opportunity to reiterate its charge that he functions as the BJP’s ‘B team’. SP spokesperson Fakhrul Hasan Chand said, “We are neither worried about him nor thinking about him. We have always said he is with the BJP, and now his internal understanding with the BJP in the BMC elections has become evident. What answer does he have for that?”

“He contested in UP in 2022 as well and could not achieve anything. The so-called success in Bihar is due to different circumstances and equations. There, the PDA is fragmented. But in UP, the PDA is completely united and stands with the Samajwadi Party and Akhilesh Yadav. Muslim voters fully supported the SP in the Lok Sabha elections and will continue to do so,” Chand added.

Could Owaisi join hands with Mayawati?

Political analysts, however, believe that Owaisi may not be able to pull off anything extraordinary in Uttar Pradesh. Historically, Muslim voting patterns in Uttar Pradesh show that voters tend to support the candidate best placed to defeat the BJP. That said, analysts acknowledge that Owaisi could influence outcomes on a few seats.

If he were to get Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati’s support, the equation could change somewhat. This possibility has gained attention because Owaisi recently praised Mayawati.

Mayawati, through her Lucknow rally, has signalled a possible ‘political comeback’, and Muslim support could benefit her, particularly in western Uttar Pradesh. However, given the BSP’s current marginal position, such a scenario still appears a distant prospect.

(This article was originally published in The Federal Desh)