Is Congress's UP expansion plan a threat to its SP alliance in 2027 polls?

With Uttar Pradesh inching closer to another high-stakes Assembly election, the challenging question for the Opposition is back: Which is harder? Defeating the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or keeping the Opposition united?

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With the state’s BJP government eyeing its third straight term amid a snowballing outrage over a donation-theft scandal at the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, supporters of the Opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) will feel that the time is right to strike, but is everything okay within the challengers’ bloc?

SP-Congress humbled BJP in UP 2024

The Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress will recall how well they played in tandem in the 2024 general elections when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance’s seat tally plummeted in the state, from 64 to 36 between 2019 and 2024. The BJP, the main powerhouse of the saffron bloc, saw its seat count fall from 62 to 33.

The SP-Congress alliance, on the other hand, secured 43, with the former getting 37, 32 more than their paltry 2019 tally of five. While supporters of the two parties would hope that they build on that platform, a cold war has begun behind the scenes over seat-sharing, even as they have made limited statements in public.

Alliance should be on equality, mutual respect: UP Congress chief

One factor that would keep the alliance nervous is the Congress’s ambition. The party’s new state chief, Rajendra Pal Gautam, has said the alliance should be based on equality and mutual respect. Soon after, reports started doing the rounds that the Grand Old Party has started ground surveys through a professional agency in about 170 Assembly constituencies of Uttar Pradesh (the state has 403).

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The party perhaps wants to indicate that it is not merely a junior partner to the SP but a force staking its own claim to power. But does the Congress have the booth-level organisation and strong candidates to man enough seats in such a large state and take the alliance leadership from the SP? In 2017, the Congress fielded candidates in 114 seats and won only seven. In 2022, it contested 399 seats and won only two! In the 2024 general elections, the Congress fielded candidates in 17 out of 80 seats and managed to win six.

'Party symbol doesn't make any difference'

Surendra Rajput, a Congress leader from the state and a national media panellist, downplayed reports of disagreements between the two allies. Speaking to The Federal, he said, “We have already been saying that we will contest all 403 seats — where is the doubt in that? Both the Samajwadi Party and Congress believe that defeating the BJP requires fighting strongly on every seat. What difference does it make which party’s symbol is on which seat? Those talking about rifts or differences between us are merely trying to spread confusion.”

Could a battle over seats become the INDIA bloc’s biggest weakness before 2027? BJP leaders are already attacking the opposition over it. If the tug-of-war between Congress and the SP keeps becoming public, it is the ruling party which stands to gain the most.

Is the Congress's big ask meant to beat the BJP, or to pressure the SP? Bold opening demands often precede satisfactory final deals — is Congress following that script, eyeing 90-100 seats while asking for 120-130? Or does it genuinely want that many? SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, meanwhile, is reading the situation carefully: too many seats for Congress hurt SP (2017 is an example), too few anger its ally. He faces a dual test — electoral arithmetic and coalition dharma.

Is the SP stronger without the Congress, or the latter without the former? Both sides wonder. Contesting alone in 2024, Congress likely wouldn't have won six seats—but would SP have won 37 either? Vote transfers between them muddy the answer even as opinions clash. Assembly elections differ from Lok Sabha polls, though: national issues matter less, while caste equations, local leaders, and regional organisations dominate. Here, the SP believes it clearly outmatches the Congress.

Congress eyes UP expansion, but at SP's expense?

As a junior partner, Congress wants to reclaim the ground it once dominated in Uttar Pradesh. Sticking to a handful of seats each time, it feels, means never regaining that stature. It is a reasonable ambition, since every party seeks to expand. The real question is whether such growth is possible within an alliance. If Congress contests more seats, will SP give up its own? If SP refuses, Congress's expansion stalls.

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Senior journalist Shekhar Srivastava, who follows UP politics closely, said, "Such manoeuvres are common in political battles. Every party has the right to expand, but decisions follow circumstances. As for the PDA (Pichhda [Backward], Dalit, Alpsankhyak [Minorities]) narrative, the Congress’s politics has historically resembled the SP’s own. If some suggest the Congress is doing this just to build pressure, call it speculation. Both parties' biggest challenge right now is clearly BJP. Expect more cold-war-like reports over seat-sharing before the election.”

SP feels it is BJP's actual rival in UP

The SP believes it is the one actually fighting the BJP in Uttar Pradesh — its organisation extending into villages, and it has the base of the PDA. So why would it give up its strong seats to Congress? SP leaders believe the Congress could be given 60 to 80 seats, but anything more would be politically damaging.

Could a battle over seats become the INDIA bloc’s biggest weakness before 2027? BJP leaders are already attacking the opposition over it. If the tug-of-war between Congress and the SP keeps becoming public, it is the ruling party which stands to gain the most. Because elections aren’t won by arithmetic alone, but by chemistry too. If workers themselves remain confused about who they're fighting for, their morale on the ground will weaken as well.

UP 2027 key for INDIA unity before 2029

The INDIA bloc has witnessed uncomfortable situations emerging in its camp in recent times. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam has expressed its dismay with the Congress after the latter decided to join the alliance of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam in the government in Tamil Nadu. Even Akhilesh indirectly expressed his unhappiness over the Congress’s move.

In Maharashtra and West Bengal, key anti-BJP forces such as Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and Trinamool Congress, respectively, have faced serious implosions. For the INDIA bloc, putting up a unified show against the BJP in Uttar Pradesh is key if it seeks to throw a serious challenge at Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Centre in 2029.

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SP's national spokesperson, Manoj Yadav, has denied any cold war: “The INDIA bloc's purpose is clear. Both parties are united in strengthening the PDA. This is a BJP conspiracy to exaggerate rifts within the opposition and clear its own path. But UP's people now understand the INDIA bloc serves the state's interest better. Talk of tension between Congress and SP is pure imagination.”

For the Opposition to reach at least 202 seats and beat the BJP to the power podium in UP, unity is essential—and that requires smooth seat-sharing. The two parties stand at a unique juncture: the Congress wants to reclaim lost ground, while SP seeks to preserve its dominance. Both aim to defeat the BJP without sacrificing their respective political futures.

(This article was originally published in The Federal Desh.)