With new ties forged within Opposition bloc, will INDIA unity survive in Assam?

The BJP may be on the back foot in Assam, with several of its veterans quitting the party, but the grand Opposition alliance in the state is not on very stable ground either.

It is hardly surprising given that the alliance is a conglomerate of 15 political parties, including regional and national ones that are part of the INDIA bloc, tied by a slim and fragile thread of one common purpose — defeating the BJP in the state.

Now, in sync with their political and ideological intimacies, the allies are forging alliances within the bigger alliance, giving rise to an immediate question — will the “Opposition unity” in Assam remain intact for the upcoming Assembly bypolls for the five seats that fell vacant after the Lok Sabha elections?

Alliances within alliance

Four regional parties of the Opposition alliance — called the United Opposition Forum Assam (UOFA) — recently joined hands to give birth to the Assam Regional Front. These four parties are the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), the Raijor Dal (RD), the Jatiya Dal Assam (JDA), and the APHLC (All Party Hill Leaders Conference).

At the same time, four Left parties — the CPI, the CPI(M), the CPI(ML), and Forward Bloc, all of which are constituents of the INDIA bloc — are also getting into a huddle to bolster Left unity. Meetings and joint programmes are being held in Guwahati as well as in other places in Assam.

The regional parties, though they have joined hands with the Congress, make it very clear that they have done so only to defeat the BJP, which they consider the “bigger threat” of the two entities.

BJP’s regional ties

It is no secret that in almost all the North-Eastern states, including Assam, the BJP’s mantra has been to tie up with regional forces.

Since the Assam Movement of 1979-85, “Bangladeshi infiltration” has been a major issue in the state. Therefore, the regional and nationalistic sentiments of the people easily got consolidated in the BJP’s favour in the 2016 election.

At that time, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) — the only regional political outfit occupying a marked space in Assam’s polity — was losing its hold over state politics. It found a natural ally in the BJP.

The CAA backfire

In the 2016 election, the AGP-BJP alliance’s main election issues were misgovernance and corruption of the 15-year Congress rule headed by Tarun Gogoi. They also stoked Assamese nationalist sentiment mixed with a pinch of Hindutva. And they got tremendous support from the people.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was famously quoted as saying in an election rally that after the BJP formed the government in Assam, foreign infiltrators would have to pack their bags and flee.

However, the same nationalist sentiment became a hurdle for the BJP when the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAA) was passed, triggering intense protests across the state.

Himanta Biswa Sarma, on the back foot, tried to pander to the nationalist sentiment again in the run-up to the 2021 Assembly election, for instance by evoking the last war of Saraighat (near Guwahati), a battle against the Mughals led by Lachit Borphukan, commander-in-chief of the Ahom dynasty.

New wave of regionalism

However, by then, Assam’s regional leaders had gone back to reviving the regional-nationalistic sentiment narrative, resulting in the birth of the AJP and the RD in 2020. But the difference this time was that they identified the BJP as the common rival and joined hands with Congress.

As AJP president Lurinjyoti Gogoi told The Federal, regionalism emanates from constitutional rights. “When we talk about unity in diversity, we talk about preserving one’s culture, language and resources while being a part of the nation-building. Assam is distinct in all these aspects more than other states in the country.”

Further, he added, “Assam has seen economic exploitation and political injustice in historically continuous ways since British rule reached here. Even after independence, it did not wane completely. This is the root cause of the need for the focus on regionalism. Ironically, the AGP has lost its regional character and can no more fight for Assam’s cause. We believe these new regional forces will fill the gap.”

Congress bad; BJP worse

On being asked about AJP’s alliance with Congress, Gogoi said, “Congress has also been a part of the economic exploitation and political injustice, but BJP appears to be a greater threat, not only for Assam but for the country. It has destroyed the composite fabric of our society by its blatant communal agenda and by shamelessly favouring a few selected corporate honchos. We are with Congress at this moment only to defeat the BJP in Assam.”

John Ingti Kathar, bureaucrat-turned-politician and an APHLC leader, also advocates the need to support regionalism. “The national parties don’t give adequate attention to the needs of the North East. If we can’t put pressure on them by strengthening the regional forces then nothing will happen,” Kathar told The Federal.

On his views of the Congress, he pointed out, “I don’t say Congress is bad. However, they can’t respond to local issues. The top leaders of the party are good, but the local leaders should become more responsive. However, we do believe that the Opposition unity to fight the BJP remains intact.”

Kathar, a leader in the Karbi Hills, also observed that the local Congress and BJP leaders are “all the same” and “they are all after their personal benefits”.

Demand for an autonomous state

A longstanding demand of the Karbi people has been an autonomous state under Article 244A of the Constitution. This movement, which started in the early 90s, made Dr Jayanta Rongpi an MP from Karbi Anglong for four terms. Rooted in the deprivation of rights, the autonomous state demand has regained its momentum lately despite the BJP’s majority in the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council (KAAC).

According to Kathar, when the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution (which provides for the administration of tribal areas in Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram to safeguard the rights of the tribal population) is not properly implemented in Karbi Anglong, the autonomous state is the only solution. In Assam, the districts of Dima Hasao, Karbi Anglong, and Bodoland Territorial Council come under the Sixth Schedule.

“Preparing our own voters’ list and framing rules for election to the autonomous council are what the Sixth Schedule states. But the Assam government has not done this despite a high court order,” pointed out Kather.

Powerless autonomous councils

Holiram Terang, former irrigation minister of Assam and Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC) leader, told The Federal that in 1995, when ASDC was in power in KAAC, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the ASDC and the Centre, leading to an amendment to the Sixth Schedule. Thirty departments, including land and revenue, were delegated to the autonomous council.

“However, appointments in those departments need the consent of the state government. The budget prepared by the council also needs to be incorporated into the state budget and only then are the budgetary allocations made,” Terang said. According to him, the Sixth Schedule in its present form is not meaningful and hence an autonomous state under article 244A is a more valid demand.

“The councils are empowered by the Constitution to make laws. But the Bills passed by the Council never become laws since the governor, advised by the state government, doesn’t give his consent,” said Terang. Kathar also raised the same concerns.

Regional forces believed that it is for resolving these contradictions that they have to strengthen their political presence.

Leadership crisis

The Assam Regional Front is being spearheaded by Ajit Kumar Bhuyan, Rajya Sabha MP from Assam. He has been an MP since 2020, when he contested as the joint Opposition candidate.

Speaking to The Federal, he said, “AGP has severely damaged the regional-nationalist politics in Assam. This political development is momentous for Assam and North East as a whole. Our effort is to strengthen regionalism.”

Bhuyan also believes that regional and Assamese nationalist sentiments are still alive in the hearts of the people, which, he said, was visible in the 2021 election and during the anti-CAA movement as well.

“The main problem with Assam’s regional politics has been a leadership crisis. This has become even tougher since the BJP has destroyed the social fabric greatly. Our society has been divided at multiple levels due to BJP’s politics. The success of our efforts depends on the leadership of parties coming together. I hope they will be unwavering in their political-ideological position,” he added.

Further, he pointed out, “We all see that wherever regional forces are strong, be it in Tamil Nadu or Jharkhand or West Bengal, the BJP has faced tremendous resistance. On the other hand, wherever regional forces shook hands with BJP, they are being gobbled up.”

Left parties unite

Another fear of the UOFA allies, particularly among the regional parties, is of getting lost in a greater alliance led by the Congress.

The Left parties have basic differences with the Congress, but they also want to strengthen their unity and offer a strong alternative to the people, said Suprakash Talukdar, Assam state secretary of CPI(M).

“We want to unite to give a distinct alternative to the people,” he told The Federal.

“Congress was in power for 10 years in alliance with others, but the faulty politics they practised during their regime is what has led to the emergence of regional problems. The regional forces in Assam understand this and they are also trying to establish a distinct presence within the greater alliance against BJP,” said Talukdar.

Need for a smooth working relationship

Political observer and an eminent intellectual of Assam, Hiren Gohain, felt that while the Congress and other parties were earnest in their efforts to fight the BJP in the recent general elections, they lacked the conviction to build on the basis of their unity.

“The result had been mutual suspicion and bad faith, leading to some avoidable slanging matches,” Gohain told The Federal.

“The Congress worried that the regional and the Left parties had much smaller support bases in most constituencies and therefore could come a cropper in the elections. Vote transfer was also unlikely. The Barpeta election proved it right. On the other hand, the Congress bases are strong. Hence, it is unlikely that unless the top leaders forcefully intervene and persuade state organisations, unity like in the rest of the country will be difficult,” Gohain commented.

He also warned that “unless a smooth working relationship is shaped and cemented, common people will be cheesed off”.

Gohain also believes that the Congress must be more liberal. For example, in this Lok Sabha election, the CPI(M) was angling for the Barpeta seat, but even after appeals from all sides, including Gohain, both CPI(M) and Congress contested in the election, finally resulting in AGP’s victory.

Congress view

The Congress says it is okay with everything — as long as the alliance to fight the BJP remains intact.

The Federal spoke to Meera Borthakur, senior Congress leader and president of Assam Women Congress and Zakir Hussain Sikdar, MLA and working president, Assam Congress.

Both felt that every party has a right to strengthen its base, and that is good for Assam’s politics. “Our ally partners will also have to show their strength to the Congress,” Borthakur remarked.

On the conundrum of the Barpeta seat during this election, Sikdar said the result proved who is more powerful in the constituency, emphasizing that democracy is a numbers game.

“The CPI(M) should have dropped its candidate and supported the Congress, which would have increased the tally of the Opposition,” he said.