Old BJP vs New BJP conflict eroding saffron party's strength in Assam

The BJP may have won an overwhelming majority of the seats in Assam in the Lok Sabha elections concluded earlier this year, but not everything seems to be going well for the party in the northeastern state.

Within two months of the results, several of the party's veteran leaders, who were long-time dedicated RSS activists, have resigned and shifted to other organisations.

Among these leaders is Ashok Sharma, a former BJP MLA of Nalbari, who shared a three-decade-long association with the BJP and the RSS. Sharma joined the Congress on August 9 in a large gathering at Nalbari, in the presence of deputy leader of the party in the Lok Sabha, Gaurav Gogoi, leader of opposition in the Assam Assembly, Debabrat Saikia, Assam Congress president Bhupen Borah, and others. Importantly, Sharma was also a dedicated RSS member.

Old versus new

Likewise, Judhisthir Gogoi, former BJP president of Sadiya district, Bhabendra Nath Mahan, former state secretary and president of the party in Sibsagar district, the party’s state executive member Gopal Kakati, and Rekha Burhagohain, the party’s women’s wing secretary of Bokota, have resigned from the BJP and joined Raijor Dal (RD), a regional party formed in 2020.

In all these resignations, the profound factor seems to be dissatisfaction with the current BJP leadership, resulting in an apparent conflict between the “old BJP” and the “new BJP”.

“New BJP” implies the party’s Assam team with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Sarma’s immediate coteries are those who defected from the Congress in 2015 and joined the BJP. Over time, many of the old BJP stalwarts have been sidelined and those who defected from the Congress have got more powerful; many of those who recently resigned have expressed this as the reason for their dissatisfaction.

Winds of change

Much before the Lok Sabha elections were held, the BJP, especially Sarma, had projected that the Opposition was nowhere in the contest. However, the election results showed otherwise. In some of the constituencies, the results have impacted the political atmosphere of Assam.

That was especially true of Jorhat constituency, where Gaurav Gogoi defeated the incumbent BJP MP, Tapan Gogoi. This was a highly charged battle, with several ministers of Sarma’s immediate coterie engaging in the entire period of campaigning. Experts in Assam see it as a moral defeat for Sarma. At the same time, Gaurav has emerged even stronger and many feel he will be a fitting chief ministerial face in the 2026 state Assembly election.

Apart from Jorhat, the Opposition performed well in Guwahati, Dibrugarh, Karimganj, though it could not win these seats. In the Karimganj seat, Congress candidate Haafiz Rashid Ahmed Choudhury alleged manipulation in the counting and also filed a complaint against the result.

Too much of several negatives

The growing conflicts within the BJP remained a political undertone throughout the election, and it started surfacing after the results. It started with the MLA of Khumtai constituency, Mrinal Saikia. While congratulating Gaurav Gogoi for his victory in Jorhat, Saikia said arrogant speeches and an overdose of leaders and money cannot win elections every time.

The Khumtai Assembly segment comes under Jorhat parliamentary constituency. Saikia indirectly expressed his disenchantment with his party leadership with Sarma at the helm. Saikia’s son is expected to join politics, and he is reportedly in touch with Assam Jatiya Parishad, another regional party and a part of the INDIA bloc. Similar is the case with former central minister and a long-time BJP leader, Rajen Gohain.

A disenchanted lot

Bibek Das, the state secretary of CPI(ML), shared his take on the development with The Federal: “The BJP is fast losing its popularity in Assam, and there will be more resignations in the near future, not only by the veterans but also by those who joined after 2014. Many people joined the BJP innocently, hoping that the longstanding problems of Assam will be solved by its leadership. They were fed up of the previous 15-year Congress and Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) rule. These people are now severely disenchanted with the BJP.”

It is worth mentioning that AGP — the party that emerged out of the Assam movement and formed the government twice in the state — is an ally of the BJP in Assam.

Das added, “Gaurav Gogoi’s victory is a moral defeat of Himanta, because he took the electoral fight personally. After the results, Himanta’s popularity is waning fast in Upper Assam. And now, with Ashok Sharma joining the Congress in Nalbari, Lower Assam will also see more people coming out of BJP.”

Jiten Choudhury, a journalist in Assam, told The Federal that former MLA Satyabrat Kalita of the AGP is also likely to join the Congress. Kalita was the MLA from Kamalpur constituency (Lower Assam) in 2016 but was denied a ticket in 2021. Former BJP MLA of Doomdooma (Upper Assam), Dilip Moran, has also made clear his intention to work with the Congress.

Importance of Constitution

In the run-up to the election, the Opposition bloc used the slogan of “Save the Constitution” as one of its main campaign points. Those who defected from the BJP now find it as a legitimate proposition.

Ashok Sharma, speaking to The Federal, said “Hindu Rashtra” is a distant dream now. “Had the BJP crossed 400 seats this time, there would have been some hope. But after the election results, it is apparent that Hindu Rashtra is an imagination.”

“Moreover, the nation has a Constitution, and it cannot be ignored by any party,” Sharma added.

Expressing his displeasure with the current BJP state leadership, Sharma told The Federal, “It is much more than a conflict between the “old BJP” and “new BJP”. The present leadership, with CM Sarma, has dishonoured people like us, who held up the party in the most difficult time.”

“Actually, those who finished the Congress under Sarma’s leadership have done this. They have hurt the Hindu ideology by resorting to divide the society. This constant narrative of division is not tolerable, and nobody believes in that. Not only are the leaders offended with the BJP leadership, common people are also getting away from it,” he added.

“Himanta is running the state by taking loans. The loans will be a burden on whoever forms the government next time. That’s why Himanta is scared,” Sharma claimed.

While Sharma joined the Congress, another long-time RSS worker and former president of BJP in Sadiya district, Judhisthir Gogoi, joined in Raijor Dal. As Judhisthir told The Federal, he was associated with the RSS since 1987 and with the BJP since 2003. “My father was also an RSS activist, as many others of my family,” he said.

Judhisthir, like Ashok Sharma, also held the opinion that no party can ignore the Indian Constitution. “I now believe that the federal system of our nation is what we all should defend. It is the foundation of our nation,” he added.

On what made him disenchanted with the BJP, Judhisthir told The Federal, “When we had joined the BJP, the Congress was at its peak, and we gave our best to hold up our party. That was also the time of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani, and the Hindu ideology was strong. The present leadership doesn’t value its veterans and those who struggled to build the party. Those who enjoy all the powers are the ones who defected from the Congress with Himanta Biswa Sarma.”

“We believed that the BJP would solve the longstanding issues of the Assamese people, like that of illegal immigrants. But it couldn’t. We got apprehensive during the anti-CAA movement but some still believed in the leadership. But now, it is clear that they are only interested in maintaining power, not solving the issues of Assam,” he added.

Will regional parties rule?

Judhisthir also believes that a strong regional force is the only future of Assam, and Akhil Gogoi is the ideal leader. “He is not a power-hungry leader and stands with the toiling masses. Assam will thrive under his leadership. That is the reason I have joined Raijor Dal under the leadership of Akhil Gogoi,” he explained.

Akhil, the MLA from Sibsagar and Raijor Dal president, has said on multiple occasions that defeating the BJP in the 2026 state Assembly election is the primary goal, and for that, they are allying with the Congress. But in 2031, Assam will have a government led by regional parties.

Even though Akhil is clear with his line, nobody knows what will happen till then. The regional forces Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), and the Jatiya Dal have united to form a joint platform named “Assam Regional Front” recently in Guwahati. All these parties are in the INDIA bloc and they have said they are united till 2026 election.

Alliance of regional forces?

According to Rasel Hussain, spokesperson of Raijor Dal, it is Akhil’s stance that has attracted many from the BJP. “Akhil Gogoi has made it clear that he will not bow down to Congress’s big-brother attitude. Raijor Dal has joined hands with the Congress to defeat the BJP. Those who believed in the Assamese nationalist political ideology and joined the BJP earlier will come to Raijor Dal in future,” Hussain told The Federal.

Hussain also passed a loaded remark on the AGP, “In the near future, the situation may become such that the AGP will think about allying with other regional forces to form a greater alliance of regional parties,” he told The Federal.

Notably, the AGP severed its alliance with the BJP in 2019, when the anti-CAA movement was at its peak in Assam. However, it joined the NDA again. Recently, Phani Bhushan Choudhury, a veteran AGP leader and the current MP from Barpeta, was quoted as saying that the party was still opposed to the CAA and would fight it in the Supreme court.

It’s not only the Raijor Dal that many former BJP leaders have joining; the AJP is also expecting a similar inflow. AJP president Lurin Jyoti Gogoi, who was the joint Opposition candidate from the Dibrugarh Lok Sabha seat, told The Federal that several people will join his party shortly. “But we have made it clear that the AJP will never support any communal politics and people who come to join us must know this.”

BJP’s chintan baithak plan

The Assam BJP has been planning a “chintan baithak” or meeting to mull over these “losses”. “Whenever someone leaves the party, especially if it’s a prominent face, there is a loss,” commented Jayanta Das, state vice-president of the BJP.

“We have planned a meeting to deal with this situation. It has been a month since it was decided, but the final dates are yet to be announced by our state president Bhabesh Kalita. In the ‘chintan baithak’, we plan to discuss things over with anyone who is dissatisfied with the functioning of the party or its leadership. I believe a discussion is the best way to know what people are thinking.”

Das, however, maintained that the party remains “intact” in Assam despite the defections. He cited the example of Sarbananda Sonowal helping Himanta Biswa Sarma even though he was replaced by the latter as chief minister. Das believes that a democratic discussion within the party can resolve the dissatisfaction among some of the activists and leaders.